Covid 19.....You are going to get it ....100%

[the other bob wilson]

This is where comparisons become difficult because different governments are doing similar things at different times. Are we in Wales better at managing the virus? are the population more compliant? or are we following the same path as England but on a different time line?

Are where does 'common sense' as BoJo calls it fit in. This message board is alive with people who have taken the plunge with season tickets. Some must be over 50, maybe over 60 and in the high risk group should they catch Covid. Why take the chance?, cold weather to come, crowded trains, full pubs, pinch points on entrance and exit to the ground.

They do it because they have hopefully weighed up the risks and decided it's worth it. No different really to what governments in the UK do on behalf on the population. No different really to the crowds who gather in the Bay, or rush to the beach.

People want to believe "good news stories". Probably against my better judgement, I went ahead and bought a season ticket and part of my reason for that was a perception that things were getting better because of the way the virus was being reported at the time - nevertheless, I had little confidence that I would actually get to many games either because I decided it was unsafe or, more likely, I would not be allowed to attend. Therefore, if I'm being honest, my ticket is more a way of ensuring I would at least be able to watch our home matches next season.

My decision was partly influenced by what I was hearing from both UK and Welsh Governments and, for me, events are proving that the attitude and presentation of information has been much more realistic and measured from the latter than it has been from the former. Johnson for me is someone who wants to be telling people that things are going to be fine because it makes him more popular, but the stakes are very high when it comes to the virus and he's struggled to appreciate this. I can remember him predicting we would have the virus on the run by the end of May, there have been various "game changing" and "world beating" schemes and breakthroughs that have been quietly shelved because they have been shown to be anything but that and now he is having to announce a "squeezing of the brakes" a week or so after he was telling us that he thought things would be back to normal by Christmas.

Drakeford may be dull by comparison with Johnson, but I would prefer he and his Government's approach to the Pandemic than that of Johnson and his crew who is seems have a problem understanding that it's probably best not to promise what you cannot be sure you can deliver.

[lisvaneblue]

People want to believe "good news stories". Probably against my better judgement, I went ahead and bought a season ticket and part of my reason for that was a perception that things were getting better because of the way the virus was being reported at the time - nevertheless, I had little confidence that I would actually get to many games either because I decided it was unsafe or, more likely, I would not be allowed to attend. Therefore, if I'm being honest, my ticket is more a way of ensuring I would at least be able to watch our home matches next season.

My decision was partly influenced by what I was hearing from both UK and Welsh Governments and, for me, events are proving that the attitude and presentation of information has been much more realistic and measured from the latter than it has been from the former. Johnson for me is someone who wants to be telling people that things are going to be fine because it makes him more popular, but the stakes are very high when it comes to the virus and he's struggled to appreciate this. I can remember him predicting we would have the virus on the run by the end of May, there have been various "game changing" and "world beating" schemes and breakthroughs that have been quietly shelved because they have been shown to be anything but that and now he is having to announce a "squeezing of the brakes" a week or so after he was telling us that he thought things would be back to normal by Christmas.



Drakeford may be dull by comparison with Johnson, but I would prefer he and his Government's approach to the Pandemic than that of Johnson and his crew who is seems have a problem understanding that it's probably best not to promise what you cannot be sure you can deliver.

Your comments about Boris are appropriate. He's proving to be a bit of a showman and not just with Covid. Im not sure that Drakeford is any better overall with his cautious approach and some decisions are questionable to say the least. You know my views on the 5 mile rule, then there is the reluctance to make masks compulsory in shops in Wales, and passive approach to testing and T&Trace.

People on this board often say that they prefer our cautious approach and in the end the results are better. You can prove anything with statistics, but comparing results of 5% of the UK population v 80% of the UK population one has to show an outstanding difference in results for it to be valid. And we can't.

An example of the magnitude of this is England's 'local lockdown' in Greater Manchester and surrounds which actually covers more people than the population of Wales.

Good luck with the season ticket. At my ripe old age I wanted to defer, but my son who sits next to me is not allowed to do the same, so we both decided to wait a while and hopefully get half season tickets if the virus is 'on the run' by year end.

[Rjk]

Your comments about Boris are appropriate. He's proving to be a bit of a showman and not just with Covid. Im not sure that Drakeford is any better overall with his cautious approach and some decisions are questionable to say the least. You know my views on the 5 mile rule, then there is the reluctance to make masks compulsory in shops in Wales, and passive approach to testing and T&Trace.

People on this board often say that they prefer our cautious approach and in the end the results are better. You can prove anything with statistics, but comparing results of 5% of the UK population v 80% of the UK population one has to show an outstanding difference in results for it to be valid. And we can't.

An example of the magnitude of this is England's 'local lockdown' in Greater Manchester and surrounds which actually covers more people than the population of Wales.

Good luck with the season ticket. At my ripe old age I wanted to defer, but my son who sits next to me is not allowed to do the same, so we both decided to wait a while and hopefully get half season tickets if the virus is 'on the run' by year end.

as you say Wales has 5% of the population, but only 3.3% of the deaths definitely does show a significant difference, these are not small sample sizes we are talking about.
A t test or similar should show that very easily

[lisvaneblue]

as you say Wales has 5% of the population, but only 3.3% of the deaths definitely does show a significant difference, these are not small sample sizes we are talking about.
A t test or similar should show that very easily

You need to await the updated figures from PHE before you can say that for certain. Remember that they, stupidly in my opinion, have been counting all deaths from people who have ever had Covid-19, even if they for example died by being run over by a bus.

[lardy]

You need to await the updated figures from PHE before you can say that for certain. Remember that they, stupidly in my opinion, have been counting all deaths from people who have ever had Covid-19, even if they for example died by being run over by a bus.

That's not going to be in the thousands though, is it?

[lisvaneblue]

That's not going to be in the thousands though, is it?

Matt Hancock has ordered an investigation into it as it is so significant. Yes it could run into many thousands. England has done a better job of testing the population than us and pHE count in anybody who has tested positive, even if with no symptoms. If such a person dies of anything it is counted as a Covid death.

In Scotland they do it differently and only count if died within 28 days of having/ tested + for Covid.

Don't know what Wales does as can't find the detail.

But you can start to see why it is so difficult to make valid comparisons

[Rjk]

Matt Hancock has ordered an investigation into it as it is so significant. Yes it could run into many thousands. England has done a better job of testing the population than us and pHE count in anybody who has tested positive, even if with no symptoms. If such a person dies of anything it is counted as a Covid death.

In Scotland they do it differently and only count if died within 28 days of having/ tested + for Covid.

Don't know what Wales does as can't find the detail.

But you can start to see why it is so difficult to make valid comparisons

if you look how many people would need to have been incorrectly attributed to covid to make the 2 populations the same it would be in the tens of thousands, and in itself it would be noticeably above the average number of deaths for this time of year

[Rjk]

You need to await the updated figures from PHE before you can say that for certain. Remember that they, stupidly in my opinion, have been counting all deaths from people who have ever had Covid-19, even if they for example died by being run over by a bus.

as long as there aren't any significant differences in reporting of deaths between Wales and England (and I don't think there are) then you can calculate it using a z test. there is a large difference in the proportions, way more than could be explained by people being hit by buses.

[lisvaneblue]

as long as there aren't any significant differences in reporting of deaths between Wales and England (and I don't think there are) then you can calculate it using a z test. there is a large difference in the proportions, way more than could be explained by people being hit by buses.

You said Wales had 5% population and only 3.3% of the deaths,. Im saying that the 1565 figure you probably used cannot be compared to the England figure. Use 2491 and then see what you come up with

[Rjk]

You said Wales had 5% population and only 3.3% of the deaths,. Im saying that the 1565 figure you probably used cannot be compared to the England figure. Use 2491 and then see what you come up with

see my last post

[cyril evans awaydays]

You need to await the updated figures from PHE before you can say that for certain. Remember that they, stupidly in my opinion, have been counting all deaths from people who have ever had Covid-19, even if they for example died by being run over by a bus.

I understand that the most relevant comparator of the impact of Covid-19 is the excess death rates against a 5 year average, which takes out any differences in methods of recording a Covid death of the type you describe.

The ONS has recently published an analysis of the all-cause mortality across European countries which includes breakdown for the different parts of the UK. Table 4 shows the percentage increase between England and Wales which is significant and help understanding of the relative success in managing the virus across the UK.


https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...uarytojune2020

[lisvaneblue]

I understand that the most relevant comparator of the impact of Covid-19 is the excess death rates against a 5 year average, which takes out any differences in methods of recording a Covid death of the type you describe.

The ONS has recently published an analysis of the all-cause mortality across European countries which includes breakdown for the different parts of the UK. Table 4 shows the percentage increase between England and Wales which is significant and help understanding of the relative success in managing the virus across the UK.


https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...uarytojune2020

It might help the understanding but is it valid as we are looking at 5% v the other 95%.

[Rjk]

It might help the understanding but is it valid as we are looking at 5% v the other 95%.

yes

[cyril evans awaydays]

It might help the understanding but is it valid as we are looking at 5% v the other 95%.

Not quite sure the point you are making other than Wales is a smaller country with a much smaller population than England

These stats are the percentage increases for the whole population of England (84% of total UK) and the whole of Wales (5%) of UK. There is no more extrapolating or statistical margins of error to take into consideration as the official statisticians for the UK have taken the total official recorded deaths in a period and compared it with the most recent 5 year average.