Covid 19.....You are going to get it ....100%

[Jimmy the Jock]

The examples of China and other Asian countries argue otherwise. Also, my understanding is that previous coronaviruses, including the seemingly more deadly SARS, were on the wane before a vaccine was discovered.

If we are all going to get it though, surely, it is best to do all we can to postpone such an event as long as we can so the best chance is given to getting a vaccine?

That is quite interesting ,would you know why they started to wane , What was the turning point ?

[the other bob wilson]

That is quite interesting ,would you know why they started to wane , What was the turning point ?

Sorry, I don't, I've just found this article from a couple of months ago, but, clearly, things are much further developed this time.

https://www.latimes.com/california/s...china-epidemic

[Jimmy the Jock]

Sorry, I don't, I've just found this article from a couple of months ago, but, clearly, things are much further developed this time.

https://www.latimes.com/california/s...china-epidemic

That is a very interesting piece .

The fact that SARS was only a problem from people that were very ill , so easier to detect and control.
SARS never really hit the heights expected
Coronavirus has many shapes and sizes , normally only giving the cold or flu.
The fact the Chinese are travelling more these days is also put down as a factor .
Perhaps / hopefully my assumptions are incorrect and covid 19 will just fade away .
I started the thread because its how I think things will go

[CCFCC3PO]

That is a very interesting piece .

The fact that SARS was only a problem from people that were very ill , so easier to detect and control.
SARS never really hit the heights expected
Coronavirus has many shapes and sizes , normally only giving the cold or flu.
The fact the Chinese are travelling more these days is also put down as a factor .
Perhaps / hopefully my assumptions are incorrect and covid 19 will just fade away .
I started the thread because its how I think things will go

What are you basing that on? I mean, do you have information that suggests that, once a person develops it, they are immune for ever? Or, do you have information that suggests that, if you have one of the 40+ strains of it, you cannot get any of the others?

Perhaps you have evidence that there won't be a covid-21, or covid-24? Or, perhaps you have evidence that a vaccine is easy when, if you consider it, the other coronavirus we know is the common cold (mild, but no cure). Do you only get the common cold once? I've had it twice this year already.

There is every chance that we will have lockdowns for the next 5 years or more. I would suggest that Governments will be a lot quicker to close borders next time.

Your comment was that "we will all get it", implying we should just get out there and get it. But, even young people are dying. Is that genetic? Or is it because they were infected with more of the virus than other people?

[surge]

The examples of China and other Asian countries argue otherwise. Also, my understanding is that previous coronaviruses, including the seemingly more deadly SARS, were on the wane before a vaccine was discovered.

If we are all going to get it though, surely, it is best to do all we can to postpone such an event as long as we can so the best chance is given to getting a vaccine?

Either that or to maximise chance of getting best NHS care: it would be a lot easier if we got it one at a time rather than three hundred and fifty-five extra cases in Wales in one day.

[surge]

Either that or to maximise chance of getting best NHS care: it would be a lot easier if we got it one at a time rather than three hundred and fifty-five extra cases in Wales in one day.

302 new cases today but 27 deaths registered. That number of deaths has only been topped on one day.

Stats provided by this site which takes information from PHW: https://coronaviruscymru.wales/graphs-%26-timeline

[CCFCC3PO]

There is no cure .

There wont be a vaccine for some time .

For the country to move forward and get back on its feet , on the whole ,we all have to get it .

Once the number of deaths drop below a certain point , restrictions will be lifted and we will start again.

The deaths are being controlled , which is of course sensible .

The hospital in the millennium stadium is a sign of things to come .

The only positive I can think about it at the moment is a lot of us have had it and aren't aware.

Anyone disagree with my interpretation of the current situation ?

This probably explains why you are being a wanker and going out and about as if it is normal.

If my parents get it, they will very likely be hospitalised. If that happens, I don't think they will get a ventilator ahead of the many younger people who need them.

The deaths are not being controlled. We are at the start of that curve.

I appreciate you need to get out and about and this is all a terrible inconvenience to you, but herd immunity projected 200,000 deaths and this lockdown projects 7000-20000 deaths.

[Croesy Blue]

The only figures they are giving is for people tested , when we cant test the people in the front line ,our NHS workers , then , the figures mean nothing.
I remember them saying one person could contaminate 400 people in a very short period , it gives an idea how far out the figures are.

So what percentage of the country do you think has it?

[Jimmy the Jock]

So what percentage of the country do you think has it?

Has it... has had it …?

It would appear to have very different affects on all of us .

I couldn't guess . The test which tells us who has had it will be the way forward.

[CCFCC3PO]

When numbers of new cases and numbers in intensive care (currently 1600) start falling, they will relax the restrictions a little.

The key thing is how quickly the number of new cases drops once we reach the peak.

Once that drops, they will allow kids back to school (maybe with monitoring of their temperature). After a few weeks of that, people will be allowed to travel back to work, maybe shops will reopen, but with a maximum number of people allowed.

The vulnerable are only on week 2 of a 12 week lockdown, so that gives you an idea of the timeline. Ideally, they will want kids in school before removing restrictions on the vulnerable.

However, if people continue flouting the rules, then this will go on a lot longer. Mainly because we can't be trusted to follow guidelines.

[Jimmy the Jock]

When numbers of new cases and numbers in intensive care (currently 1600) start falling, they will relax the restrictions a little.

The key thing is how quickly the number of new cases drops once we reach the peak.

Once that drops, they will allow kids back to school (maybe with monitoring of their temperature). After a few weeks of that, people will be allowed to travel back to work, maybe shops will reopen, but with a maximum number of people allowed.

The vulnerable are only on week 2 of a 12 week lockdown, so that gives you an idea of the timeline. Ideally, they will want kids in school before removing restrictions on the vulnerable.

However, if people continue flouting the rules, then this will go on a lot longer. Mainly because we can't be trusted to follow guidelines.

Do you think the rules will be relaxed just once ?

[delmbox]

When numbers of new cases and numbers in intensive care (currently 1600) start falling, they will relax the restrictions a little.

The key thing is how quickly the number of new cases drops once we reach the peak.

Once that drops, they will allow kids back to school (maybe with monitoring of their temperature). After a few weeks of that, people will be allowed to travel back to work, maybe shops will reopen, but with a maximum number of people allowed.

The vulnerable are only on week 2 of a 12 week lockdown, so that gives you an idea of the timeline. Ideally, they will want kids in school before removing restrictions on the vulnerable.

However, if people continue flouting the rules, then this will go on a lot longer. Mainly because we can't be trusted to follow guidelines.

But how (and this question is aimed at everybody not just you) does slowly relaxing the rules not mean a slow build up of patients again? So if we slowly relax the rules and in 8 months it's more or less back to normal then why doesn't the virus spread like wildfire again in 8 months? There's no vaccine, nothing's really changed, nowhere near enough people will have had it for effective herd immunity (assuming that 80% of the population won't have had it by then)

So how do we get back to normal before a vaccine arrives? What am I missing?

[Jimmy the Jock]

But how (and this question is aimed at everybody not just you) does slowly relaxing the rules not mean a slow build up of patients again? So if we slowly relax the rules and in 8 months it's more or less back to normal then why doesn't the virus spread like wildfire again in 8 months? There's no vaccine, nothing's really changed, nowhere near enough people will have had it for effective herd immunity (assuming that 80% of the population won't have had it by then)

So how do we get back to normal before a vaccine arrives? What am I missing?

Slightly more eloquent than myself .

[Gofer Blue]

But how (and this question is aimed at everybody not just you) does slowly relaxing the rules not mean a slow build up of patients again? So if we slowly relax the rules and in 8 months it's more or less back to normal then why doesn't the virus spread like wildfire again in 8 months? There's no vaccine, nothing's really changed, nowhere near enough people will have had it for effective herd immunity (assuming that 80% of the population won't have had it by then)

So how do we get back to normal before a vaccine arrives? What am I missing?

I agree. If the vast majority of people, as we are led to believe, are following the "stay at home" advice wherever possible then the percentage of folk exposed to the virus could be quite small. Then when everything looks hunky-dorey and the masses are let loose once more the whole saga could start all over again. On a positive note, viruses can only survive if there are hosts to reproduce it, so isn't it possible that the COVID-19 virus could literally have died out before this happens?

[lardy]

But how (and this question is aimed at everybody not just you) does slowly relaxing the rules not mean a slow build up of patients again? So if we slowly relax the rules and in 8 months it's more or less back to normal then why doesn't the virus spread like wildfire again in 8 months? There's no vaccine, nothing's really changed, nowhere near enough people will have had it for effective herd immunity (assuming that 80% of the population won't have had it by then)

So how do we get back to normal before a vaccine arrives? What am I missing?

Yeah it will, but that also gives the economy a bit of breathing space. It's probably hanging over us until the vaccine comes but it will be in peaks and waves, so they'll close on the way up and open on the way down.

[Jimmy the Jock]

Yeah it will, but that also gives the economy a bit of breathing space. It's probably hanging over us until the vaccine comes but it will be in peaks and waves, so they'll close on the way up and open on the way down.

That's the only reason they will open the doors before the virus is beaten .

If we continue as is , the economy will be decimated .

My perception is we are trying to balance peoples lives with money .

If it goes past 3 months it could finish the business I have built over the last 25 years . I certainly wouldn't see that as a reason to put more peoples lives at risk.

[Croesy Blue]

Has it... has had it …?

It would appear to have very different affects on all of us .

I couldn't guess . The test which tells us who has had it will be the way forward.

We’ll all evidence points to a maximum of 3%, let’s be more optimistic and say 5% of the country has had it and 4000 deaths already.

So if 100% of the country get it that’s a minimum of 80,000 deaths.

[Jimmy the Jock]

We’ll all evidence points to a maximum of 3%, let’s be more optimistic and say 5% of the country has had it and 4000 deaths already.

So if 100% of the country get it that’s a minimum of 80,000 deaths.

The hospital in the millennium stadium and similar all over the country tells me we haven't scratched the surface .

I don't want to be seen as doing gloom and doom , I believe my opening post is probably close to the truth .
My mind is open to there being another solution .

[light up the darkness]

We’ll all evidence points to a maximum of 3%, let’s be more optimistic and say 5% of the country has had it and 4000 deaths already.

So if 100% of the country get it that’s a minimum of 80,000 deaths.

5% of 66.5 million is 3,250,000

At that number the death rate is incomprehensible to us. It becomes a simple but horrifying statistic.

[Croesy Blue]

5% of 66.5 million is 3,250,000

At that number the death rate is incomprehensible to us. It becomes a simple but horrifying statistic.

I was saying if we said 5% of the country are of have been infected giving us 4000 deaths we’d get 80000 if everyone was infected if we assume a linear trend.

I know it’s much worse than that in reality.

[Heathblue]

There is no cure .

There wont be a vaccine for some time .

For the country to move forward and get back on its feet , on the whole ,we all have to get it .

Once the number of deaths drop below a certain point , restrictions will be lifted and we will start again.

The deaths are being controlled , which is of course sensible .

The hospital in the millennium stadium is a sign of things to come .

The only positive I can think about it at the moment is a lot of us have had it and aren't aware.

Anyone disagree with my interpretation of the current situation ?

Bill Gates to the rescue and the mandatory Vaccination program. Is it almost ready to be rolled out? no idea.!!!
regarding deaths being controlled, I wouldn't go with this Jimmy, I would guess like many, now having additional time
at home I have watched zillions of Youtube hours on this, some just medical stuff, some conspiracy stuff, for all the testing that
Germany has done, they haven't really flattened their curve and their curve is basically following the western European curve and the American curve, would be interesting to see the Swedish curve who have chosen to follow a different path, I would not disagree with many may have had it, and maybe their immune system has coped well with it and the illness being put down to the common flu, It's a bloody awful situation, so to answer your question do I agree or disagree?, i'm going to take the 5th!!!.

[delmbox]

Bill Gates to the rescue and the mandatory Vaccination program. Is it almost ready to be rolled out? no idea.!!!
regarding deaths being controlled, I wouldn't go with this Jimmy, I would guess like many, now having additional time
at home I have watched zillions of Youtube hours on this, some just medical stuff, some conspiracy stuff, for all the testing that
Germany has done, they haven't really flattened their curve and their curve is basically following the western European curve and the American curve, would be interesting to see the Swedish curve who have chosen to follow a different path, I would not disagree with many may have had it, and maybe their immune system has coped well with it and the illness being put down to the common flu, It's a bloody awful situation, so to answer your question do I agree or disagree?, i'm going to take the 5th!!!.

pardon

[Heathblue]

pardon

Basically, Bill Gates will be 1st with the vaccination
Do I agree with Jimmy?, not yes, not no
Cheers.

[delmbox]

Basically, Bill Gates will be 1st with the vaccination
Do I agree with Jimmy?, not yes, not no
Cheers.

fair play, cheers mate

[The Lone Gunman]

There is every chance that we will have lockdowns for the next 5 years or more.

This is mere speculation, it’s scaremongering and it’s not helpful in my opinion.

You have no evidence whatsoever to suggest that will be the case.