Reply With QuoteYeah you do, you do really don't you?Originally Posted by The Lone Gunman
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What is the margin of error in this instance?
Yeah you do, you do really don't you?
I do recall one medical expert in the UK keeps saying .the only good test is the right one, and would takes months to get to a point where we could test and say yes you have had it , allowing some folk to resume their lives ,especially key workers ?
So exactly where is he revelling in it?
Beats me. I think it's because I posted a theory that this could go on for years.
@The Lone Gunman sarcastically labels me "an expert", somehow uses the date of the first day I posted on the subject (7/3) as something that is odd (we had just 209 cases on that day), and whilst calling me a "self-professed (sic)" expert also tried to make mileage from my use of statements like "could be", yet I am posting things as factual.
It is clear this guy is a troll of some sort. He rarely posts on subjects, goes into personal attacks, and tries to deflect the argument to befit a style only his self grandeur could ever carry off wearing. In effect, he'd be walking around stark bollock naked.
It's clear that the point I was making was that people should not assume immunity until immunity has been proven. That, to me, seems logical and worth passing the advice on (especially on a forum where people advise others they can go to friend's houses for a drink, providing they stay 2m apart). To @The Lone Gunman - it appears as something else.
He's logged off for dinner now, so probably will have a cutting remark about how I was posting 45 minutes after he logged off as something of a point scored by him.
Can't believe he is 53 though, far too old for a mid life crisis surely.
why do these posts drift so easily into personalities , same on the politics board , just goes off on a tangent and you get caught up in it clever stuff I suppose ?
An unknown at the moment which is why any vaccine has to go through rigorous testing before any conclusions can be drawn and a vaccine is deemed effective and safe enough to be used within the general public. Computer modelling did show how even limited inoculation can significantly reduce the overall infection rate. At a guess, if this vaccination gets the go ahead, geographical hotspots/communities will be targeted first to help suppress infection rates.
From that link, it reads like a running total which, again, might be not as shocking a figure as it first appears, but it does appear to have gone up by forty in a week which seems a lot, yet it's hard to know what to make of it because there is nothing I can find to indicate how big a proportion that is off total tests.
I have no problem with the original article you posted, although it would have been good to know its source at the time, which you later provided. It is the summing up paragraph at the end of your original post that I find unduly negative and doom laden. How anyone can arrive at that conclusion by relying on a sample of 91 cases from thousands is very difficult to understand. It is insignificant.
What's with the @ thing? Stupid!!
You may be right. South Korea has done 503k tests, ie 9800 tests per million of population
UK has done 316K tests, 4617 tests per million of population.
More concerning to me is that today UK states 5,100 new cases, 315 in Wales
Public health Wales says 503 new cases, and Public Health England says over 8,000 for England giving a UK total a little under 9,000
Although we're probably not talking a great deal in terms of the overall figure, I think there were expectations that the new cases figure in Wales would be high because Thursday's figure was for a reduced number of hours (I think it may have been as low as six) for some reason and I believe the same happened for a couple of regions in England, but although the rate of increase in new cases is definitely slowing, it doesn't seem to be plateauing yet does it.
Yes, they usually tend to get angrier as you stay on target and avoid the personal stuff, although it is easy to get dragged into it at times. He who wins the last part of the argument wins the complete argument is their supposition.
It's used on other forums to let that person know you have mentioned them. It's common decency on those forums, and maybe I am using it out of habit.
It isn't insignificant because, as of yet, we don't have evidence of immunity en mass that makes it insignificant. The fact is, there is evidence that should question our belief that having this once means immunity. It may not be the case, and there is evidence it may not be the case. Note the word "may" there.
The figure is not so important, it is the actual premise that people are testing positive after recovering. That is enough for any medical scientist to investigate further, and it should be enough to make people think twice about being invincible.
Nice one. That is hopeful. I will have to watch this at some stage, was busy yesterday working on something, and I am going to get rat arsed later so maybe tomorrow.
Statistically , they are far more invincible than someone who hasn't been diagnosed .
Massively , incredibly massively .
Yet lets focus on that tiny chance you can be re infected..
Makes headlines. And you enhance your point.
There are people who are really concerned on here , does it please you to know you are feeding their fear ?
That is good news. Do you have a link?
The figure is important -are we talking about hundreds being involved or hundreds of thousands? The conclusion you draw from that figure of ninety one would differ massively depending on the answer to that question.
At this moment in time, I disagree and I disagree for the following reasons.
1) As you pointed out, we don't know how many people were re-tested
2) People were retested in China, 38 out of 262 tested positive. (14%)
3) The fact that people are re-testing as positive provides enough reason for this to be investigated further.
They can't dismiss it because "it's not very many". We need to know the reasons why these are re-testing as positive. False positives in the first test? Disease reactivating? A second infection? That is why I say the number of people re-testing as positive is currently not so important. In my opinion, the actual fact that immunity cannot, at present, be guaranteed is something that we really need an answer to.
At least, we should have retesting of people once recovered - and in every country.
You're making a few assumptions about what I'm saying there which aren't true. Of course something like this should be followed up, as opposed to forgotten about on the assumption that they were part of a huge sample. All I'm saying is that the overall number that ninety one comes from is of huge significance as to how big a problem this could be given that there always seems to be a small minority that test positive twice in any pandemic. As for those results from China, they've been knocking around for a little time now and I would have thought there would have been more figures to back it up by now from that Connery if they existed - I would qualify that by saying I would be more confident in that view if it involved a country other than China.
How on earth the spell check made Connery out of country is completely beyond me
I'm getting really pissed off with your ridiculous fixation on this one point. Yes it is officially against guidance, but the original message regarding this was very clear that they were still observing distancing and sitting in the garden. it may be against the letter of the guidelines, but it's not against the spirit. The situation described holds a lot less risk than people who take more shopping trips than strictly needed or who are walking round busy areas in the middle of the day(both of which would be within the guidelines). The way you've fixated on this is quite frankly moronish. I did think you were taking a bit of unjustified stick off people, but when I see the comments like this I understand why people think you're a knob.
But immunity is never guaranteed in all people. Immunity relies on your immune system working. If people are very poorly then they wont have an effective immune memory or response. That means that the numbers who get reinfected are important.
That will enable people to work out if re infection is down to something about the patients, or if it's something that the disease is likely to do in everyone.
We haven't even scratched the surface of knowledge about this virus yet. But there are lots of great people all around the world investigating, so i'm sure this is being looked into
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