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I watched a Horizon documentary the other day on pandemics (was from a few years ago). They had a lot of clips of press conferences from the 1980s where people were being promised a vaccine for the HIV virus within 2 years of that being discovered. Never happened, took decades before any sort of reliable treatment for symptoms appeared. This is a very different virus obviously but you can't assume they will ever find a vaccine or treatment and we may just have to live with the fact that everyone will get it sooner or later and lots of people will die.
The temporary hospitals being thrown up may end up being modern-day leper colonies, once up and running they can send everyone back to work
Whilst I would like to believe that is true, it isn't backed by fact. We didn't have a confirmed case in the UK until the end of Jan 20 so I can't really trust a load of Karens on Facey with the sniffles.Originally Posted by goats
I think we will have a vaccine by Sept but the manufacturing ramp up with take some months.
You know lots of people who were completely unable to get out of bed for a few days around Christmas, with severe muscle pain, weakness and dizziness ? Because that's what real flu is. Or did they just have bad colds?
I know what it is, I caught it once or twice in my 47 years too....yeah bed ridden
As soon as I started working, I prioritised getting enough savings so that I could continue to live if I was out of work for 12 months. The reason, I saw a family member get seriously ill and had to retire early at 44. The other reason, the more I save, the quicker I can quit work. A lot of people see this as "bragging", but the same people go on about their flash cars, holidays etc etc. I use credit cards for one reason, so that someone can hold my outgoings for a month before I pay them off. That means I have a bit of money doing a bit of work in the meantime.
I am surprised that these huge companies, in some cases, seem incapable of surviving for a week or two with zero income.
I suspect that borders will open bit by bit. We could, possibly, see the same sorts of restrictions that some countries have in place for Yellow Fever.
I used to call a heavy cold "the flu". Then I had "the flu". Only the once, and I hope never to get it again.
I agree with you. I believe the quickest a vaccine was ever produced was 5 years.
Staff wages being subsidised by the government, no reducing of existing stock that can’t be replaced by furloughed suppliers, so no suppliers to pay, no vehicles to run & maintain, maybe a relaxing of rent on premises. When the crisis abates they’ll have a yard full of existing stock whereas if they’d stayed open it would have been whittled down by the builders that are still working and they’d have to wait for suppliers to restock. They’ve got it worked out to a tee. The few builders merchants that have stayed open (mostly one off local firms) while making hay while the sun shines at present will eventually run out of the most sought after materials, have to wait for suppliers to get up and running again and maybe go through a lean patch with the government furlough financial help no longer available. They’ll drop their employees then like a shot house seat.
i found it interesting that some of the countries that helped out the refugees back in 2015/16 (which i applaud them for doing so) are getting hit hard now...Germany took in the most followed by in no correct order Spain Italy and France, i wonder if there's any correlation.
side note:
Sweden has noted a worrying stat that ethnic minorities in Sweden figure quite high in the deaths recorded.
After extensive research (3 clicks on Google) I can reveal that a vaccine for Zika virus was developed and ready for testing in 7 months - back in 2015. Then the virus fizzled out before clinical trials could start.
This time around - with more international collaboration, greater spread and massively greater economic and social consequences - most informed opinion (scientists not football message board experts) has been saying 12-18 months for at least the last 2 months. That might involve fast tracking a few stages.
Well, in that case I’m sticking with the football message board experts then
Ready for testing. It hadn't undergone any clinical trials. It hadn't been mass produced. Its chances of success could not be determined.
Germany isn’t as badly affected though
This won't please sports watchers at all. From the BBC Coronavirus Wales live reports:
Mass gatherings 'could be banned for a year'
Dr Meirion Evans
BBCCopyright: BBC
Dr Meirion Evans has worked as a consultant epidemiologist for Public Health Wales. Dr Meirion Evans has worked as a consultant epidemiologist for Public Health Wales
Mass gatherings could be banned in Wales for more than a year while the hunt for a vaccine continues, a senior government adviser says.
Dr Meirion Evans, professional adviser to Wales' chief medical officer, says the restrictions could remain until a vaccination is routinely available.
However, he says some lockdown measures could be relaxed over the coming weeks.
Official figures show 463 people have died with coronavirus in Wales, with 6,118 confirmed cases.
With regards to "most informed opinion". Has a survey been undertaken that backs that up? The claims of there being vaccines ready in 12-18 months are definitely catching the headlines. There are quite a few people who are a bit more reserved about the chances.
Michael Mina, assistant professor of epidemiology at Harvard says
There are quite a few others out there. Dr Peter Hotez for one. Also, the inventor of the rotavirus vaccine saidTwelve to 15 months has been a timeframe that's been passed around as a minimum that it could take to develop a vaccine and bring it to market. But there's a caveat out there. That 12-to-15-month timeframe assumes that the vaccine actually works and protects us. But that's actually really the hard part ... finding the right combination of things to put in the vaccine to make sure that it elicits a good amount of immunological protection. And so it could be that 12 months from now, we're starting back at ground zero with a new trial.
I think that 12 to 15 months is probably not the most realistic timeframe. I anticipate that it will be quite a bit longer, if ever. And it's important to remember that we don't have any useful vaccines currently for many of the seasonal viruses that we see every year.
I am not saying that it is impossible for a vaccine to be produced in 12-18 months - I don't really know if it is possible or not. However, if you look at the history of vaccines, one has not been clinically trialled and mass produced in that time frame.When Dr. Fauci said 12 to 18 months, I thought that was ridiculously optimistic,and I’m sure he did, too.
Again, not that this is in any way related, we were told antibody tests would be available within days. From memory, this was a couple of days after the lockdown started. They are available, but they are too unreliable. So, until these scientists explain why a vaccine will be available in 12-18 months, based on current progress, tests, results etc then I will remain cautious about the claims.
It would also have helped if @jon1959 posted a link to the article he was quoting. I guess he was in such a rush after finding one singular article that he had more pressing things to get on with.Well, in that case I’m sticking with the football message board experts then
I assume it is this one
https://www.pharmaceutical-journal.c...irstPass=false
Inovio’s Zika vaccine went from concept to first human dose in just seven months, which Kim believes is the fastest any vaccine has been put into practice in history. The company published the results of its phase I trial of the vaccine in October 2017 — in which 100% of participants produced antibodies to the virus after three doses of vaccine — and has begun phase II trials[2]. The US National Institutes of Allergy and Infectious Disease (NIAID) is also developing a DNA vaccine for Zika, which is now in phase II trials.
Article date 1 Feb 2018.
Strange, then that this article from just 5 months ago still talks of "breakthroughs" in a vaccine for Zika virus. This seems to indicate that the vaccine @jon1959 talks about may not have been successful?
https://www.sciencedaily.com/release...1213115442.htm
I admit, it took me more than 3 google clicks.
Oxford University saying they may a vaccine by September: https://www.itv.com/news/2020-04-14/...ng-tom-clarke/
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-a9460481.html
Yes, they say they may. They put its chances of success at 80%.
i think she said the chance of developing one is 80% not the chance of it bering successful
Like jon, it seems you need to slow down.Professor Gilbert told The Times she was “80 per cent confident” the vaccine being developed by her team would be successful in protecting people against the disease.
So scientist say restrictions *could* remain until a vaccination is routinely available. BBC then in it's headline uses quotes for 'could be banned for a year' - which isn't what was said.
Media have a lot to answer for.
It is given as a quote, so if it wasn't can you enlighten us to what he actually did say?
Builders merchants and DIY stores should be open now with good social distancing measures, a lot of people are off work and now have time to do some job's but can't get hold of the Wood, Bricks, paint etc needed!
Dr Max Pemberton thinks the lockdown has already gone too far?
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/a...PEMBERTON.html
Time for 2 outdoor excersise sessions a day I think, maybe walk in the morning and cycle in the afternoon.
It will be getting the population fitter and stronger to beat the virus if they get it, help defeat the boredom, and as you can distance and avoid touching anything, shouldn't increase to the spread of the virus!
This could be the first change.
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