XG (expected goals)

[BlueArmy 86]

Teams with the lowest expected goals this weekend
1️⃣ Reading - 0.47
2️⃣ Stoke - 0.53
3️⃣ Birmingham - 0.58
4️⃣ Barnsley - 0.60
5️⃣ QPR - 0.61
6️⃣ Luton - 0.65
7️⃣ Forest - 0.70
8️⃣ Bournemouth - 0.75
8️⃣ Brentford - 0.75

We played the leaders and aren’t in this list.

Surprised to see Brentford in there considering they won 3-1.

Onto Brentford...

[Rjk]

2020-12-19-brentford-reading.jpg

as mentioned before, pots of people calculate xG in slightly different ways.

also if you race into a 3-0 lead from some difficult chances, then you don't need to keep pushing forward

[J R Hartley]

Pile of nonsense

[J R Hartley]

2020-12-19-brentford-reading.jpg

as mentioned before, pots of people calculate xG in slightly different ways.

also if you race into a 3-0 lead from some difficult chances, then you don't need to keep pushing forward

I rest my case. There’s not even a consistent way of working it out ffs

[Rjk]

I rest my case. There’s not even a consistent way of working it out ffs

it can absolutely be nonsense, or it can be a powerful tool. some of the stuff people are doing with stats these days is very impressive, but the clever stuff only very rarely makes it into the public domain.
it is having a big influence on the sport, still many years behind some of the American sports though

[NYCBlue]

What does it mean? That Brentford had 75% chance of scoring 1 goal?

What were the bookies' odds?

[mazadona10]

I quite like that stat. I think it generally gives a better idea of the game. I'm not certain how it is worked out i assume it's about getting into dangerous positions rather than just shots etc.

The one thing I would say is better teams have better players so I would expect them to have a better conversion rate. If you have Messi shooting from 20 yards he is going to score a lot more often than will vaulks shooting from 20 yards

[Optimistic Nick]

it can absolutely be nonsense, or it can be a powerful tool. some of the stuff people are doing with stats these days is very impressive, but the clever stuff only very rarely makes it into the public domain.
it is having a big influence on the sport, still many years behind some of the American sports though

Yep. These things are developed with professional sports clubs in mind, and professional sports teams and leagues do make up a not insignificant percentage of the customer base of groups like this. XG was really made a recognised stat by Opta, and that business was acquired by a US statistics group about 18 months ago, so let's see how things develop.