UK Covid-19 death figures

[The Lone Gunman]

Seems to be a bit of controversy brewing regarding the Covid-19 death figures that Matt Hancock reported during today's daily briefing.

This evening, Hancock told the public an additional 111 people have died with Covid-19, taking the overall figure to 39,045. However, he neglected to mention that yesterday's reported figure was 38,489, meaning the overall figure has in fact increased by 556. The new figure apparently includes an historical correction of an additional 445 deaths.

Whether this omission from Hancock was deliberate or not is open to debate. However, the new figures only serve to further highlight just how poorly the UK governments have dealt with this pandemic.

The current figures for the major European countries are as follows:

39,045 - UK
33,475 - Italy
28,833 - France
27,127 - Spain
9,486 - Belgium
8,618 - Germany
5,962 - Netherlands
4,855 - Russia
4,403 - Sweden
1,650 - Ireland

Regardless of any political allegiances, those UK numbers are shocking.

[Dorcus]

Seems to be a bit of controversy brewing regarding the Covid-19 death figures that Matt Hancock reported during today's daily briefing.

This evening, Hancock told the public an additional 111 people have died with Covid-19, taking the overall figure to 39,045. However, he neglected to mention that yesterday's reported figure was 38,489, meaning the overall figure has in fact increased by 556. The new figure apparently includes an historical correction of an additional 445 deaths.

Whether this omission from Hancock was deliberate or not is open to debate. However, the new figures only serve to further highlight just how poorly the UK governments have dealt with this pandemic.

The current figures for the major European countries are as follows:

39,045 - UK
33,475 - Italy
28,833 - France
27,127 - Spain
9,486 - Belgium
8,618 - Germany
5,962 - Netherlands
4,855 - Russia
4,403 - Sweden
1,650 - Ireland

Regardless of any political allegiances, those UK numbers are shocking.

By the way, before the Alt Right crew step in and say you can't make international comparisons because of population differences, it's worth noting that France and Italy have populations commensurate with ours whilst Germany has a population about 25% larger.

[Croesy Blue]

Remember when we were looking at Italy like it was a terrible warzone not that long ago.

Funny how it hasn’t been reported like that here.

[The Lone Gunman]

What I do remember is one of the experts (perhaps Chris Whitty?) saying fairly early on that the UK will have done well if we can keep the deaths figure under 20,000......

[blue matt]

What I do remember is one of the experts (perhaps Chris Whitty?) saying fairly early on that the UK will have done well if we can keep the deaths figure under 20,000......

on the flip side, some professor ( a quick google says it was Professor Neil Ferguson, director of the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College, London ) said they expected it to be 500,000

these experts opinions have varied wildly

[CCFCC3PO]

on the flip side, some professor ( a quick google says it was Professor Neil Ferguson, director of the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College, London ) said they expected it to be 500,000

these experts opinions have varied wildly

Forecast, not expected.

They are not opinions, they are models based on data available at the time.

[blue matt]

Forecast, not expected.

point still stands though

[CCFCC3PO]

point still stands though

What point?

[The Lone Gunman]

on the flip side, some professor ( a quick google says it was Professor Neil Ferguson, director of the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College, London ) said they expected it to be 500,000

Yes, but that estimate was if no lockdown was enforced and no social distancing rules were applied. So a bit different. A worst-case scenario if the government did nothing and just let the virus run.

[goats]

Yes, but that estimate was if no lockdown was enforced and no social distancing rules were applied. So a bit different. A worst-case scenario if the government did nothing and just let the virus run.

People aren’t that stupid though, although we do seem to have more here than in say Sweden, which as we all know had no lockdown but does have SD. Interesting that a Norway now think there lockdown might have been too severe and done more harm than good.

[Eric Cartman]

People aren’t that stupid though, although we do seem to have more here than in say Sweden, which as we all know had no lockdown but does have SD. Interesting that a Norway now think there lockdown might have been too severe and done more harm than good.

Why is that interesting?

[Croesy Blue]

People aren’t that stupid though, although we do seem to have more here than in say Sweden, which as we all know had no lockdown but does have SD. Interesting that a Norway now think there lockdown might have been too severe and done more harm than good.

Sweden has the highest death rate per capita at one point

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/202...te-per-capita/

Their society is more naturally socially distanced than ours too which is why it wasn't worse.

[B. Oddie]

on the flip side, some professor ( a quick google says it was Professor Neil Ferguson, director of the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College, London ) said they expected it to be 500,000

these experts opinions have varied wildly

I suppose experts can't be criticised for grossly over-estimating figures, but would be opening themselves up for media mauling if they grossly under-estimated.

[blue matt]

I suppose experts can't be criticised for grossly over-estimating figures, but would be opening themselves up for media mauling if they grossly under-estimated.

you are right

but even worse than that, a CCMB mauling

[CCFCC3PO]

you are right

but even worse than that, a CCMB mauling

It's only you and Bill Oddie (Christ!) that seem to be "mauling" the "experts". The rest on this thread seem to appreciate what the figures represent.

[xsnaggle]

It sounds a bit like north wales suddenly finding an extra 80 odd deaths about a month ago. These people must really think people don't look at what they put up. I suppose it doesn't alter the deaths for yesterday except that the more they are manipulated the less they can be believed.

[Croesy Blue]

point still stands though

It doesn’t

[Welshcake.]

Some of those countries are not including carehome or at home deaths.

[CCFCC3PO]

Some of those countries are not including carehome or at home deaths.

It's not a contest. Whether Italy have 60,000 deaths, or 200 doesn't alter the fact that 40,000 deaths have been attributed to the virus in this country and, in reality, is likely to be more.

[Welshcake.]

It's not a contest. Whether Italy have 60,000 deaths, or 200 doesn't alter the fact that 40,000 deaths have been attributed to the virus in this country and, in reality, is likely to be more.

I'm not saying it is a contest. I'm saying making comparisons is difficult because the way numbers have been recorded are different.

[Cyclops]

I'm not saying it is a contest. I'm saying making comparisons is difficult because the way numbers have been recorded are different.

^^^^^This!
If the figures of deaths since early March are compared with the average number in previous years for the same period, England has had around 60,000 more deaths during this period than usual.

[Croesy Blue]

Some of those countries are not including carehome or at home deaths.

Look at excess deaths, we are still worse than the others

[Croesy Blue]

these experts opinions have varied wildly

I think just your understanding of what’s being presented has varied wildly

[blue matt]

I think just your understanding of what’s being presented has varied wildly

so you think that all the experts opinions /predictions / forecasts havent varied wildly , sure some sing of the the governments song sheet, but some dont

[CCFCC3PO]

so you think that all the experts opinions /predictions / forecasts havent varied wildly , sure some sing of the the governments song sheet, but some dont

What is your point?