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Thread: UK Covid-19 death figures

  1. #1

    UK Covid-19 death figures

    Seems to be a bit of controversy brewing regarding the Covid-19 death figures that Matt Hancock reported during today's daily briefing.

    This evening, Hancock told the public an additional 111 people have died with Covid-19, taking the overall figure to 39,045. However, he neglected to mention that yesterday's reported figure was 38,489, meaning the overall figure has in fact increased by 556. The new figure apparently includes an historical correction of an additional 445 deaths.

    Whether this omission from Hancock was deliberate or not is open to debate. However, the new figures only serve to further highlight just how poorly the UK governments have dealt with this pandemic.

    The current figures for the major European countries are as follows:

    39,045 - UK
    33,475 - Italy
    28,833 - France
    27,127 - Spain
    9,486 - Belgium
    8,618 - Germany
    5,962 - Netherlands
    4,855 - Russia
    4,403 - Sweden
    1,650 - Ireland


    Regardless of any political allegiances, those UK numbers are shocking.

  2. #2

    Re: UK Covid-19 death figures

    Quote Originally Posted by The Lone Gunman View Post
    Seems to be a bit of controversy brewing regarding the Covid-19 death figures that Matt Hancock reported during today's daily briefing.

    This evening, Hancock told the public an additional 111 people have died with Covid-19, taking the overall figure to 39,045. However, he neglected to mention that yesterday's reported figure was 38,489, meaning the overall figure has in fact increased by 556. The new figure apparently includes an historical correction of an additional 445 deaths.

    Whether this omission from Hancock was deliberate or not is open to debate. However, the new figures only serve to further highlight just how poorly the UK governments have dealt with this pandemic.

    The current figures for the major European countries are as follows:

    39,045 - UK
    33,475 - Italy
    28,833 - France
    27,127 - Spain
    9,486 - Belgium
    8,618 - Germany
    5,962 - Netherlands
    4,855 - Russia
    4,403 - Sweden
    1,650 - Ireland


    Regardless of any political allegiances, those UK numbers are shocking.
    By the way, before the Alt Right crew step in and say you can't make international comparisons because of population differences, it's worth noting that France and Italy have populations commensurate with ours whilst Germany has a population about 25% larger.

  3. #3

    Re: UK Covid-19 death figures

    Remember when we were looking at Italy like it was a terrible warzone not that long ago.

    Funny how it hasnít been reported like that here.

  4. #4

    Re: UK Covid-19 death figures

    What I do remember is one of the experts (perhaps Chris Whitty?) saying fairly early on that the UK will have done well if we can keep the deaths figure under 20,000......

  5. #5
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    Re: UK Covid-19 death figures

    It sounds a bit like north wales suddenly finding an extra 80 odd deaths about a month ago. These people must really think people don't look at what they put up. I suppose it doesn't alter the deaths for yesterday except that the more they are manipulated the less they can be believed.

  6. #6

    Re: UK Covid-19 death figures

    Quote Originally Posted by The Lone Gunman View Post
    What I do remember is one of the experts (perhaps Chris Whitty?) saying fairly early on that the UK will have done well if we can keep the deaths figure under 20,000......
    on the flip side, some professor ( a quick google says it was Professor Neil Ferguson, director of the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College, London ) said they expected it to be 500,000

    these experts opinions have varied wildly

  7. #7

    Re: UK Covid-19 death figures

    Quote Originally Posted by blue matt View Post
    on the flip side, some professor ( a quick google says it was Professor Neil Ferguson, director of the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College, London ) said they expected it to be 500,000

    these experts opinions have varied wildly
    Forecast, not expected.

    They are not opinions, they are models based on data available at the time.

  8. #8

    Re: UK Covid-19 death figures

    Quote Originally Posted by blue matt View Post
    on the flip side, some professor ( a quick google says it was Professor Neil Ferguson, director of the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College, London ) said they expected it to be 500,000
    Yes, but that estimate was if no lockdown was enforced and no social distancing rules were applied. So a bit different. A worst-case scenario if the government did nothing and just let the virus run.

  9. #9

    Re: UK Covid-19 death figures

    Quote Originally Posted by CCFCC3PO View Post
    Forecast, not expected.
    point still stands though

  10. #10

    Re: UK Covid-19 death figures

    Quote Originally Posted by blue matt View Post
    point still stands though
    What point?

  11. #11

    Re: UK Covid-19 death figures

    Quote Originally Posted by blue matt View Post
    point still stands though
    It doesnít

  12. #12

    Re: UK Covid-19 death figures

    Some of those countries are not including carehome or at home deaths.

  13. #13

    Re: UK Covid-19 death figures

    Quote Originally Posted by Welshcake. View Post
    Some of those countries are not including carehome or at home deaths.
    Look at excess deaths, we are still worse than the others

  14. #14

    Re: UK Covid-19 death figures

    Quote Originally Posted by CCFCC3PO View Post
    What point?

    these experts opinions have varied wildly

  15. #15

    Re: UK Covid-19 death figures

    Quote Originally Posted by blue matt View Post
    these experts opinions have varied wildly
    I think just your understanding of whatís being presented has varied wildly

  16. #16

    Re: UK Covid-19 death figures

    Quote Originally Posted by blue matt View Post
    these experts opinions have varied wildly
    Oh dear. Hard work sometimes, isn't it?

  17. #17

    Re: UK Covid-19 death figures

    Quote Originally Posted by Welshcake. View Post
    Some of those countries are not including carehome or at home deaths.
    It's not a contest. Whether Italy have 60,000 deaths, or 200 doesn't alter the fact that 40,000 deaths have been attributed to the virus in this country and, in reality, is likely to be more.

  18. #18

    Re: UK Covid-19 death figures

    Quote Originally Posted by blue matt View Post
    these experts opinions have varied wildly
    They are not opinions.

  19. #19

    Re: UK Covid-19 death figures

    Quote Originally Posted by Croesy Blue View Post
    I think just your understanding of what’s being presented has varied wildly
    so you think that all the experts opinions /predictions / forecasts havent varied wildly , sure some sing of the the governments song sheet, but some dont

  20. #20

    Re: UK Covid-19 death figures

    Quote Originally Posted by blue matt View Post
    on the flip side, some professor ( a quick google says it was Professor Neil Ferguson, director of the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College, London ) said they expected it to be 500,000

    these experts opinions have varied wildly
    I suppose experts can't be criticised for grossly over-estimating figures, but would be opening themselves up for media mauling if they grossly under-estimated.

  21. #21

    Re: UK Covid-19 death figures

    Quote Originally Posted by blue matt View Post
    so you think that all the experts opinions /predictions / forecasts havent varied wildly , sure some sing of the the governments song sheet, but some dont
    What is your point?

  22. #22

    Re: UK Covid-19 death figures

    Quote Originally Posted by B. Oddie View Post
    I suppose experts can't be criticised for grossly over-estimating figures, but would be opening themselves up for media mauling if they grossly under-estimated.
    you are right

    but even worse than that, a CCMB mauling

  23. #23

    Re: UK Covid-19 death figures

    Found it. It wasn't Whitty. It was Valance and Powis:

    https://news.sky.com/story/coronavir...d-now-11978609

  24. #24

    Re: UK Covid-19 death figures

    Quote Originally Posted by blue matt View Post
    you are right

    but even worse than that, a CCMB mauling
    It's only you and Bill Oddie (Christ!) that seem to be "mauling" the "experts". The rest on this thread seem to appreciate what the figures represent.

  25. #25

    Re: UK Covid-19 death figures

    For those who still want to see things in party political terms, I'll say that the figures in Wales are dreadful (six out of the top ten worst districts for rate of infection according to this

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...cases-near-you

    and getting worse it would appear when compared to other areas of the country). Therefore, like many left leaning contributors on here, I have no problem with being critical of Welsh Labour, because, while there is evidence in those figures that the danger is easing in the other countries in the UK, it looks like Wales is stuck and so it would be stupid to slavishly defend the Welsh Government.

    However, I do have some sympathy with Drakeford and co because we are not truly independent. If we were, it would be a different matter, but, in some respects, the Welsh Government is having to tackle the virus with one hand tied behind its back because it is still beholding to the UK Government. That's why, if we are playing the blame game, I still hold the UK Government more responsible for the high figures in this country.

    Also, as pointed out earlier in this thread, the Ferguson modelling was a projection of what would have happened if there had been no intervention from Government (in essence, if we had relied on herd immunity and just allowed the virus to have run its course). Its relevance stemmed from the fact it seems to be the one single thing that persuaded the UK Government to ignore advice advocating a herd immunity approach, but, once that decision was taken, it became irrelevant straight away because it referred to a set of circumstances that no longer applied.

  26. #26

    Re: UK Covid-19 death figures

    Quote Originally Posted by The Lone Gunman View Post
    Seems to be a bit of controversy brewing regarding the Covid-19 death figures that Matt Hancock reported during today's daily briefing.

    This evening, Hancock told the public an additional 111 people have died with Covid-19, taking the overall figure to 39,045. However, he neglected to mention that yesterday's reported figure was 38,489, meaning the overall figure has in fact increased by 556. The new figure apparently includes an historical correction of an additional 445 deaths.

    Whether this omission from Hancock was deliberate or not is open to debate. However, the new figures only serve to further highlight just how poorly the UK governments have dealt with this pandemic.

    The current figures for the major European countries are as follows:

    39,045 - UK
    33,475 - Italy
    28,833 - France
    27,127 - Spain
    9,486 - Belgium
    8,618 - Germany
    5,962 - Netherlands
    4,855 - Russia
    4,403 - Sweden
    1,650 - Ireland


    Regardless of any political allegiances, those UK numbers are shocking.
    One consequence of those additional 445 deaths is that there is every chance that the rolling seven day average figure on the graph they show every day will rise and, no matter how people try to spin it, that is not a good look - especially in a country that is supposed to be coming out of lockdown. As it is, the rolling average had more or less become a straight line anyway. Although the daily new cases figure is declining and this should be reflected in the death figures in the next week or two, it is doing so very slowly - that's why any attempts to talk up the UK's response to the virus in the daily briefings looks pathetic and insulting to the population as far I'm concerned.

  27. #27

    Re: UK Covid-19 death figures

    Quote Originally Posted by the other bob wilson View Post
    For those who still want to see things in party political terms, I'll say that the figures in Wales are dreadful (six out of the top ten worst districts for rate of infection according to this

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...cases-near-you

    and getting worse it would appear when compared to other areas of the country). Therefore, like many left leaning contributors on here, I have no problem with being critical of Welsh Labour, because, while there is evidence in those figures that the danger is easing in the other countries in the UK, it looks like Wales is stuck and so it would be stupid to slavishly defend the Welsh Government.

    However, I do have some sympathy with Drakeford and co because we are not truly independent. If we were, it would be a different matter, but, in some respects, the Welsh Government is having to tackle the virus with one hand tied behind its back because it is still beholding to the UK Government. That's why, if we are playing the blame game, I still hold the UK Government more responsible for the high figures in this country.



    Also, as pointed out earlier in this thread, the Ferguson modelling was a projection of what would have happened if there had been no intervention from Government (in essence, if we had relied on herd immunity and just allowed the virus to have run its course). Its relevance stemmed from the fact it seems to be the one single thing that persuaded the UK Government to ignore advice advocating a herd immunity approach, but, once that decision was taken, it became irrelevant straight away because it referred to a set of circumstances that no longer applied.
    I agree the figures in Wales are terrible, but don't agree that we can blame the UK Government in part. Health is devolved and Wales seemed determined to do its own thing, as did Scotland and N Ireland. From the start we lagged behind in testing and are still way off the 5,000 a day promised in the early days.
    Drakeford rightly announced that industrial South Wales was at particular risk, but then did nothing about it. Now he has the cheek to say Tracking and Tracing is up and running but not just yet because the IT is not quite right.

    Our 5 colour zone plan on easing seems sensible but we are all over the place with it so it no longer makes any sense at all.

    The latest easing guidance is confusing especially the 5 mile rule. There are clear hot spots in Wales..RCT, NE Wales, Cardiff...so we can meet up more, but because of the travel restrictions if we live in a hot spot we can only meet in the hot spot. A recipe for escalation.

    On TV news last night I saw the frustration of car showroom owners who can't understand why they remain shut, fearing they will lose business to England. Car showrooms are not like supermarkets crowded with shoppers, and the owners say it's not difficult to ensure customers are kept safe.

    I think the people of Wales have been generally great at compliance with the guidance. All along we have been hindered by a Senedd that is out of its depth, and a public health system that has been slow off the mark and not fit for purpose.

  28. #28

    Re: UK Covid-19 death figures

    Crumbs off the table.

  29. #29

    Re: UK Covid-19 death figures

    Quote Originally Posted by The Lone Gunman View Post
    Yes, but that estimate was if no lockdown was enforced and no social distancing rules were applied. So a bit different. A worst-case scenario if the government did nothing and just let the virus run.
    People aren’t that stupid though, although we do seem to have more here than in say Sweden, which as we all know had no lockdown but does have SD. Interesting that a Norway now think there lockdown might have been too severe and done more harm than good.

  30. #30

    Re: UK Covid-19 death figures

    Quote Originally Posted by CCFCC3PO View Post
    It's not a contest. Whether Italy have 60,000 deaths, or 200 doesn't alter the fact that 40,000 deaths have been attributed to the virus in this country and, in reality, is likely to be more.
    I'm not saying it is a contest. I'm saying making comparisons is difficult because the way numbers have been recorded are different.

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