Covid-19's journey to the UK

[the other bob wilson]

You think that your point of view is superior to all other points of view?

Oh the irony .

[Heisenberg]

He was until he resigned. He was always touted as the brains who worked out the projected path of the virus in numerical terms or something until he went off shagging some married woman. Now he has suddenly changed his opinion apparently.

Or his advice wasn't adhered to at the time (see: the leaked memo that came to light yesterday), perhaps.

[xsnaggle]

Or his advice wasn't adhered to at the time (see: the leaked memo that came to light yesterday), perhaps.

That's quite probably true, but another scientist on the SAGE said that there are lots and lots of differing opinions and they have to discuss to find some kind of consensus. No doubt that is often the line of least resistance. It reminds me of the old saying that a camel is a horse designed by a committee. Because for consensus they try to incorporate what everyone wants it to do.

[Wales-Bales]

Oh the irony .

Factual information and points of view are not the same thing.

[Rjk]

Or his advice wasn't adhered to at the time (see: the leaked memo that came to light yesterday), perhaps.

So right about the time he was disagreeing with the approach the PM and Cummings were taking, the press somehow discover evidence of him breaking the lockdown with a married woman and plaster him over the papers, then all of a sudden he's off SAGE.

[Croesy Blue]

Absolutely not. I think you're an idiot, though.

I think when the other points of view are:

"This is what happens when you have open boarders (sic). The spread of Covid is a direct consequence of globalisation."

"Here we go again... BBC again trying to airbrush the facts. Fact is that it all started in China and spread all over the world because of China's ill intentions. We just can not blame our neighbours for these spread. BBC, please don't fool the same public who is paying your salaries."

There is nothing wrong with thinking your point of view is superior to them.

[Heisenberg]

So right about the time he was disagreeing with the approach the PM and Cummings were taking, the press somehow discover evidence of him breaking the lockdown with a married woman and plaster him over the papers, then all of a sudden he's off SAGE.

*Nothing to see here*

[Rjk]

*Nothing to see here*

The story was broken by the Telegraph as well, which is where 100% of tory leaks end up

[Eric the Half a Bee]

It's right, and so is the fact that 100% of all global Covid-19 cases originated in China.

The article isn't claiming any different. It is looking at where the virus was before it came here. Europe, mainly. It didn't come directly from China to Britain. Do you not understand that? It's not deflecting anything from China.

You are hard work. Once again, despite people explaining in great detail, you've twisted things to suit yourself, got things wrong and confused, and caused arguments. Hopeless dunce was a phrase TLG used. Won't take long for the jury to decide on that the way you're going.

[Wales-Bales]

The article isn't claiming any different. It is looking at where the virus was before it came here. Europe, mainly. It didn't come directly from China to Britain.

That's what the BBC said.

[Croesy Blue]

How stupid do people be to say it's the bbc being biased when the actual study is linked in the article - https://virological.org/t/preliminar...n-lineages/507

The COVID-19 pandemic was first reported in China and has spread rapidly, causing epidemics around the world. Cases of SARS-CoV-2 infections in the United Kingdom (UK) are the result of virus introductions from other countries, followed by local transmission within the UK1. Here we provide estimates of trends through time in the number and sources of SARS-CoV-2 introductions into the UK. We obtain these estimates by combining data on the numbers of inbound travellers to the UK, estimated numbers of infections worldwide, and large-scale virus genome sequencing undertaken by the COG-UK consortium. Our preliminary analysis provides a platform for evaluating future trends in virus introduction, however it does not attempt to measure the relative contributions to the UK epidemic of importation versus local transmission, nor model the possible impact of public health interventions on virus introduction.

The key conclusions of our analysis are as follows:

The UK epidemic comprises a very large number of importations due to inbound international travel2. We detect 1356 independently-introduced transmission lineages, however, we expect this number to be an under-estimate.

The speed of detection of UK transmission lineages via genome sequencing has increased through time.

Many UK transmission lineages now appear to be very rare or extinct, as they have not been detected by genome sequencing for >4 weeks.

The rate and source of introduction of SARS-CoV-2 lineages into the UK changed substantially and rapidly through time. The rate peaked in mid-March and most introductions occurred during March 2020.

We estimate that ≈34% of detected UK transmission lineages arrived via inbound travel from Spain, ≈29% from France, ≈14% from Italy, and ≈23% from other countries. The relative contributions of these locations were highly dynamic.

The increasing rates and shifting source locations of SARS-CoV-2 importation were not fully captured by early contact tracing.

Our results are preliminary and further analyses of these data are ongoing.

[cyril evans awaydays]

The article isn't claiming any different. It is looking at where the virus was before it came here. Europe, mainly. It didn't come directly from China to Britain. Do you not understand that? It's not deflecting anything from China.

You are hard work. Once again, despite people explaining in great detail, you've twisted things to suit yourself, got things wrong and confused, and caused arguments. Hopeless dunce was a phrase TLG used. Won't take long for the jury to decide on that the way you're going.

Look you don't understand.

In the US the institutions most responsible for the spread and failure to control coronavirus are the individual states and no blame can be placed at the door of the Federal Government.

In the UK blame for the import of the disease onto these isles is plainly at the door of the EU as a globalist institution and there is nothing those sovereign member states could do about it.

Once you realise this fact which is only available to the gifted and talented in the classroom then everything else falls into place.

[Wales-Bales]

How stupid do people be to say it's the bbc being biased when the actual study is linked in the article

Well done mate, great detective work

[Croesy Blue]

Look you don't understand.

In the US the institutions most responsible for the spread and failure to control coronavirus are the individual states and no blame can be placed at the door of the Federal Government.

In the UK blame for the import of the disease onto these isles is plainly at the door of the EU as a globalist institution and there is nothing those sovereign member states could do about it.

Once you realise this fact which is only available to the gifted and talented in the classroom then everything else falls into place.

[Wales-Bales]

Look you don't understand.

In the US the institutions most responsible for the spread and failure to control coronavirus are the individual states and no blame can be placed at the door of the Federal Government.

In the UK blame for the import of the disease onto these isles is plainly at the door of the EU as a globalist institution and there is nothing those sovereign member states could do about it.

Once you realise this fact which is only available to the gifted and talented in the classroom then everything else falls into place.

This post has been approved by

Attachment 3891

[jon1959]

Look you don't understand.

In the US the institutions most responsible for the spread and failure to control coronavirus are the individual states and no blame can be placed at the door of the Federal Government.

In the UK blame for the import of the disease onto these isles is plainly at the door of the EU as a globalist institution and there is nothing those sovereign member states could do about it.

Once you realise this fact which is only available to the gifted and talented in the classroom then everything else falls into place.

[Elwood Blues]

Or his advice wasn't adhered to at the time (see: the leaked memo that came to light yesterday), perhaps.

Any link to said memo.

Can't find it on internet at the moment

[Eric the Half a Bee]

Look you don't understand.

In the US the institutions most responsible for the spread and failure to control coronavirus are the individual states and no blame can be placed at the door of the Federal Government.

In the UK blame for the import of the disease onto these isles is plainly at the door of the EU as a globalist institution and there is nothing those sovereign member states could do about it.

Once you realise this fact which is only available to the gifted and talented in the classroom then everything else falls into place.

[Heisenberg]

Any link to said memo.

Can't find it on internet at the moment

[Jordi Culé]

Yep. Just worth a quick reminder of this. February 3rd.


https://www.gov.uk/government/speech...-february-2020

"And in that context, we are starting to hear some bizarre autarkic rhetoric, when barriers are going up, and when there is a risk that new diseases such as coronavirus will trigger a panic and a desire for market segregation that go beyond what is medically rational to the point of doing real and unnecessary economic damage, then at that moment humanity needs some government somewhere that is willing at least to make the case powerfully for freedom of exchange, some country ready to take off its Clark Kent spectacles and leap into the phone booth and emerge with its cloak flowing as the supercharged champion, of the right of the populations of the earth to buy and sell freely among each other.
And here in Greenwich in the first week of February 2020, I can tell you in all humility that the UK is ready for that role."

Brilliant stuff, reads like an excellent parody, it’s a pity in many ways that it isn’t. My particular highlight being...

“Look at these well-fed nymphs and cupids and what have you.

They are not just celebrating the Triumph of Liberty and Peace over Tyranny – the official title of the scene.”

[the other bob wilson]

Yep. Just worth a quick reminder of this. February 3rd.


https://www.gov.uk/government/speech...-february-2020

"And in that context, we are starting to hear some bizarre autarkic rhetoric, when barriers are going up, and when there is a risk that new diseases such as coronavirus will trigger a panic and a desire for market segregation that go beyond what is medically rational to the point of doing real and unnecessary economic damage, then at that moment humanity needs some government somewhere that is willing at least to make the case powerfully for freedom of exchange, some country ready to take off its Clark Kent spectacles and leap into the phone booth and emerge with its cloak flowing as the supercharged champion, of the right of the populations of the earth to buy and sell freely among each other.
And here in Greenwich in the first week of February 2020, I can tell you in all humility that the UK is ready for that role."

Thanks for posting that - I wasn't aware of that speech until today. It could be Alan B'stard talking couldn't it.

[splott parker]

Thanks for posting that - I wasn't aware of that speech until today. It could be Alan B'stard talking couldn't it.

When’s his statue going up?

[the other bob wilson]

When’s his statue going up?

........and coming down again pretty soon afterwards

[MacAdder]

Oh dear, that made painful reading.
If anyone needed any proof that the threat of C19 was given very little thought then there it is.
Yes hindsight is a wonderful thing but BJ and Cummins more than likely spent weeks composing that landmark speech, with a not to be disturbed sign outside the door, and nothing would derail the blind optimism.
Economy vs people's lives, no contest.
BJ's reign will live long in the memory and not for the right reasons.

[Elwood Blues]

The leaked memo was by Stephen Riley not Neil Ferguson.

Ferguson co authored the 16th March Imperial College paper which was known about weeks ago.