Originally Posted by
Eric the Half a Bee
There have been 10 occasions where the team or teams below the playoffs have been within 1 point of 6th after 43 games. Perhaps surprisingly, only 2 of those teams in 6th have missed out on the playoffs. There have only been 2 other occurrances of teams being a point below the playoffs after 43 games finishing in the top 6. 6 times out of 10 those sides have missed out.
That means there are 5 occasions where teams have made up a greater gap than 1 point.
Of the sides that won a playoff spot, 3 won 9 points from their last 3, 4 won 7 points, 1 won 6 points and another won only 4 (West Ham in 2005 when Reading lost their last 3 games). Generally teams don't stumble their way into the playoffs from outside.
Needless to say there is usually an assistance from the team that misses out in terms of their form. Reading, as mentioned, won no points from their last 3. One team won 1 point (guess who?), 2 won 2 points, 2 won 3 points, 2 won 4 points and 1 team won 6 points (Burnley in 2002, they were in 4th after 43 games though 2 points separated 4th and 8th, they lost out on goal difference of 1).
Goal difference has made the difference only twice in 20 years. Burnley, as mentioned above, are one who missed out. No prizes for guessing the other.
In terms of point gap after 43 games between the team that finished top 6 and the team that missed out, on 3 occasions that has been 1 point, twice it's been 2 points, on 3 occasions it's been 4 points. The biggest collapse was a gap of 8 points. Again, answers on a post card for the identity of that team.....