Originally Posted by
Eric the Half a Bee
I've had a look at something different this time. I've decided on a slightly more lengthy project of seeing how teams in and around 6th, with a chance of making the playoffs (or missing out) fare, given the opposition yet to play and whether those teams have anything to play for. This is over the last 10 seasons.
First look is to see if whether teams with something to play for are harder to play than teams without something to play for. Criteria used is that a team has a mathematical and realistic prospect of playoffs, automatic promotion or relegation. There was one instance of a team being 6 points adrift of safety with a goal difference of around 20 worse than their challenger. They're down.
Points average against teams with nothing to play for: 1.73
Points average against teams with something to play for: 1.62
Not immensely surprising. However, top half teams outside of the playoffs with nothing to play for have been the most difficult to get results from. Teams in the top 6 with nothing to play for have provided an average of 1.6 points for teams chasing a last playoff place. Teams in the bottom half - 2.14 points. Already relegated - 3 points.
Looking now at teams with something to play for. Unsurprisingly, playing teams in the top 6 needing a result has brought 0.57 points for teams chasing the last playoff spot. Here's the interesting one, though. Teams in 7th-12th with something to play for have provided 1.86 points a game. That suggests that when two contenders meet, the team chasing the team above don't often get the result, it goes to the higher ranked side.
In terms of venue, playing a side with nothing to play for away from home wins more points on average than being at home (1.74 vs 1.71). The opposite is true when it comes to playing a side with something to play for. Home advantage yields 2 points a game, away only 1.33.
Needless to say it's easier for teams chasing a last playoff spot to get points from teams in the bottom half overall than those in the top half.
Overall playing at home yields 1.86 points, playing away 1.57.
4 sides in 10 seasons have broken into the playoffs having been outside with 2 games to go. Those who were in the playoffs and missed out generally did so because they couldn't get results against teams with nothing to play for. I can only put that down to attitude.
Looking ahead to Middlesbrough, every time in the last 10 years where a team in the top 6 needing a result has gone to a team in the bottom half, who also need a result, they've won.