Originally Posted by
Eric the Half a Bee
Playoff first legs won by 2 goals: 33
Won by the home side: 18
Won by the away side: 15
Those occasions wherer teams that lost in the first leg by 2 goals have turned things around:
Lost away: 2 (11%)
Lost at home: 3 (20%)
Maybe surprising or not, playing away in the second leg gives more chance of overhauling a 2 goal deficit than having home advantage.
Here's a list of stats that might make you feel slightly more optimistic about the job in hand. They're mathematically sound but a more than a touch flawed because of the low numbers.
Lost at home by one goal in the first leg but won the tie: 17%
Lost at home by two goals in the first leg but won the tie: 20%
Lost at home 2-0 in the first leg but won the tie: 25%
Lost at home by two goals but won away: 33%
Lost at home by two goals but didn't lose away: 60%
The three sides that turned things around away from home are Northampton (this season), Yeovil (2007) and Bradford (1996). It might be worth noting that none of those were playoffs in this division, so if we did manage a miracle on Thursday, it would be the first time in Championship history that a team winning by 2 goals away lost the tie.
When those sides managed their miraculous comebacks, they were all 1-0 up at half time. Yeovil needed extra time to dispatch Forest. Northampton almost managed a comeback in 2004, winning the second leg 3-1 at Mansfield. They eventually lost on penalties.