Originally Posted by
Delbert
The virus spreads most easily in crowded confined spaces especially where people are engaged in activities which result in higher numbers of virus particles being expelled. The risk of becoming infected is in large part determined by how long someone is in contact with an infected person, for how long and how infectious the person is. The NHS Covid-19 app for contact tracing defines a high risk encounter as one where an individual has been within 2 metres of someone who has tested positive for Coronavirus for at least 15 minutes during 1 day (of course it cannot determine whether someone is indoors or outdoors which is a major determinant of infection risk).
This is why people socialising indoors represent a much higher risk and people active outdoors and socially distancing present a low (negligible?) risk. It follows there is not much evidence to suggest shopping in a supermarket in controlled conditons makes a very significant contribution to case numbers. This is likely because encounters with other people shopping are mostly transient so the exposure is too brief to result in transmission and also the large size of the store and controlled numbers of shoppers.
According to WOL the Welsh Government’s abrupt policy change last Thursday was due to Conservative MS Russell George saying it was "unfair" to force independent clothing and hardware retailers to shut while similar goods were on sale in major supermarkets. In other words the policy change was made for narrow party political reasons ahead of public health concerns about the risk of virus transmission. Unfortunately the resulting fiasco has created a situation where attention has been deflected from the serious situation Wales finds itself in.
If the Welsh Government had planned this policy properly and followed the science and also sought the expertise of the supermarkets in good time then this situation would have been avoided. It sounds like a partial U-turn will be announced later which will sensibly allow supermarkets to use their discretion on the purchase of non-essential items. Lets hope that the focus can then move back onto far more important public health matters.
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