Quote Originally Posted by Rjk View Post
labour aren't picking up the deserting Tory voters though, they are going from Tory to "don't know", which suggests that many of them will return once Boris has been removed
That was true up until early December - when Labour were getting narrow leads in most polls. Since then the pollsters have seen clear evidence of Tory to Labour switches - both ex Red Wall voters and also some more traditional southern Tory voters (along with switches to the Lib Dems).

I'm no fan of Starmer and have parted company with the Labour Party (although it is very difficult to resign - they still record me as a member 3-4 months after I quit) but I do think a tipping point has been passed. The odds are heavily against Johnson surviving as Tory leader and Prime Minister for the rest of this year.

I can't see Labour beating the Tories given recent history, but I can see the Tories beating the Tories and Labour coming through by default.

A new Tory leader will produce a 'new manager bounce' but none of the potential candidates have the ability or experience or charisma needed, and some are totally toxic even to die hard Tory members. Johnson expelled most of the real talent over Brexit.

Mind you Starmer managed to push out a third of Labour's members in less than 2 years - including the youngest and most active ones - so some of the most effective opposition is online, in single issue campaigns and in other non-traditional places.