Quote Originally Posted by Rjk View Post
many of the economic arguments against Welsh independence would have equally applied to Ireland about 100 years ago.
when they became independent they were probably the poorest part of the UK, and it has taken them most of a century but since 2001 they have had a higher GDP per capita, and it is a gap that is only getting wider.

in the 1920s they basically had an entirely agrarian economy, that ONLY traded with the UK.
if they hadn't have left the UK there is NO WAY that they would now be as wealthy or the wealthiest part of the UK. they would probably be a poor part of the UK and as ignored as the remaining poor parts in terms of investment.
if you're going to quote Ireland and its GDP, then be honest about it and explain that a significant portion of it is a result of the double Irish, meaning whilst the economic activity of the likes of Facebook, Google etc is nominally part of the Irish GDP, its hardly taxed in Ireland and it doesn't transpose to wealth for Ireland.

If you strip out the GDP included as a result of the double Irish, then Ireland is nowhere near as prosperous as the UK.

A few points about Wales:

we have a fiscal deficit of £15bn per annum;

our GDP is about £70bn;

if we taxed at 40%, we'd need to generate £37.5bn more economic activity to increase our tax base by £15bn. That means we would need to increase the size of our economy by more than 50%;

In Wales, 1 in 4 work in the public sector. That's 375,000 workers. In the UK it is 1 in 5. To match the UK in terms of cost and efficiency, we would need to lose 75,000 public sector jobs;

We can't generate a 50% uplift in our economy from selling water and wind to England;

we are not going to replace 75,000 public sector workers with private sector employment;

Wales will be an economic basket case, 3rd world within a generation.

the economic numbers just do not stack up. Quoting Ireland is folly because its GDP is vastly inflated due to the likes of Facebook et al.