Quote Originally Posted by Rjk View Post
someone I know who works in Westminster was told back in December that it was "quite likely" that these upcoming elections would deliver a Tory majority in Wales.

i said that was a load of nonsense. I hope I was right.
Can't see it personally but the polls seem to think so

https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/p...ction-20234184

Based on uniform national swings, the regional list seats would split as follows:

North Wales: 1 Labour, 1 Plaid, 1 Conservative, 1 Abolish the Assembly
Mid and West Wales: 2 Labour, 1 Conservative, 1 Abolish the Assembly
South Wales West: 2 Conservative, 2 Plaid
South Wales Central: 2 Conservative, 1 Plaid, 1 Abolish the Assembly
South Wales East: 2 Conservative, 1 Plaid, 1 Abolish the Assembly
Overall, Labour would win 22 seats, the Conservatives 19, Plaid Cymru 14 , Abolish the Assembly 4 and the Liberal Democrats 1.

I do not see the voting going quite that way