Scottish Independence

[xsnaggle]

I have mulling over this and all it's implications for a while now. I don't pretend to have answers but wonder what other board members feel about certain aspects of it.

First of all who should vote? Should it be people from any nationality who reside in Scotland or only Scots? Should Scottish people living outside the country be entitled to vote as it is their homeland?
Or as it affects everyone in the UK should all UK citizens be allowed to vote? (Personally I think if this were the case they would probably be gone tomorrow, although it isn't my preferred option)

But assuming the vote is for separation what do we think will be the outcome of certain problems.
1. Armed forces: Should they be given certain part of the Army Navy and RAF or should they raise their own forces? I think from my experience if the soldiers themselves were given the option the vast majority would elect for their units to remain in the reduced UK and if it didn't the soldiers would migrate,
This also feeds into the economy. Where will the new Scotland find the money to raise equip maintain and pay a new security force? And what would happen to military facilities like Faslane?

2. Currency. What would happen if the UK government refused them the use of Stirling? They couldn't use the euro as they would not be part of the EU, and despite all the rhetoric would not become a member for the foreseeable future.

3. Border controls if any. This shouldn't be a problem unless they start cosying up to regimes that affect the British national interests.

4. Scottish Nationals requiring residency permits to remain in UK.

5. Travel for people going on holiday will they still want to fly from the usual airports or will companies run more charters from Scotland and pass on the extra cost?

6. North Sea Oil. Such as it now is the SNP claims this is entirely Scottish but they'd have a job winning that argument in court. And the companies mining it would have a say too.

7. The EU. already mentioned but even if they do not join they will have to thrash out a separate trade deal with the EU. I think the Canada deal took 7 years. In the mean while they would not be able to trade normally with any part of Ireland. There would also be the question of the movement of goods to non-scottish ports, which then feeds into the taxing and registering of vehicles, particularly vehicles crossing into England/Ireland and whether drivers would need a green card or additional insurance to scottish domestic insurance.

8. The Scottish underlying debt. I believe this is now in the order of £8 billion. This has arisen apparently not because of underfunding from Westminster but because of the SNP government's profligacy. So would they expect the UK to clear this or would it be a burden round their neck from day 1? Bearing in mind they would have a much shrunken economy and more to pay for despite the increased tax income.

9. Is their health service in a fit state to serve the population, not least because of their huge drug and alcohol problems

The list could go on and it depends largely of the feelings on the break-ep. If the UK government wanted to play hard ball it would affect every level of life in Scotland and could be done without breaking any international laws, like requiring certain vaccinations for people crossing the border, non acceptance of Scottish education certificates for work in UK. Scots not being allowed to take a job in the remaining UK if there is a person already in UK who is qualified and out of work.
I think it would be unreasonable to assume that the UK government would allow Scotland to leave the union but still automatically enjoy all the benefits of being part of it. There must be a price to pay sooner or later.
If you have read this far thank you. If you are now bored to tears my apologies, but I have all these questions and no answers, so I'd love to know what others think. And I'm sure some will think of things I haven't.

Thanks for reading! I hope this won't get moved to the politics forum as it is not directl welsh politics and is just for general discussion and/or banter

Edit: and the final question, why is it you think you've fixed all the typos and then see loads more as soon as you post!!

[lardy]

If the whole UK voted I'm sure Scotland would stay. I can't see there's much enthusiasm for them to go amongst the majority of English people.

[The Bloop]

I wonder if England would ever consider having an independence vote?
Would save the other nations the trouble.

[life on mars]

I think the SNP over estimate thier appeal , they get plenty of votes in normal elections as for that vote representing independence is another matter .

Yes I believe everyone should vote, as currently we've all part of a collective union.

[lardy]

I think the SNP over estimate thier appeal , they get plenty of votes in normal elections as for that vote representing independence is another matter .

Yes I believe everyone should vote, as currently we've all part of a collective union.

If it was the norm for everyone in a country to vote for one state's independence then surely hardly any independent votes would go through.

Do you think the whole EU should have voted in the brexit referendum? I'm sure you don't.

[jon1959]

If it was the norm for everyone in a country to vote for one state's independence then surely hardly any independent votes would go through.

Do you think the whole EU should have voted in the brexit referendum? I'm sure you don't.

Zap!

[xsnaggle]

Zap!

WWhy the zap. He's not catching me out is he? I already said I don't know the answers, I'm just trying to see what other peoples opinions are on the whole question.

[lardy]

WWhy the zap. He's not catching me out is he? I already said I don't know the answers, I'm just trying to see what other peoples opinions are on the whole question.

The zap was for my reply to lifeonmars, not you. Don't be sensitive!

[jon1959]

WWhy the zap. He's not catching me out is he? I already said I don't know the answers, I'm just trying to see what other peoples opinions are on the whole question.

Lardy was replying to LOM not you. LOM thinks everyone in the UK should have a right to vote on Scottish independence. Because everyone in the UK is part of the current union and will be affected by the outcome. As Lardy points out using that argument or logic every citizen of the EU should have had a vote on Brexit. Not something LOM would support. Nor me.

[Eric the Half a Bee]

I think the SNP over estimate thier appeal , they get plenty of votes in normal elections as for that vote representing independence is another matter .

Yes I believe everyone should vote, as currently we've all part of a collective union.

I believe it is a matter for the people of Scotland.

We were a part of a collective union in Europe but only we decided whether or not to stay in it or not.

[chris lee]

I always find it difficult to comprehend those who make political arguments for independence such as SNP and Plaid, but hate Brexit, while I do understand the notion that they may dislike Westminster but not Brussels. The arguments about why self governance is good for their nation but Brexit is bad the for the UK often completely contradict each over.

[Bluebirdman Of Alcathays]

I always find it difficult to comprehend those who make political arguments for independence such as SNP and Plaid, but hate Brexit, while I do understand the notion that they may dislike Westminster but not Brussels. The arguments about why self governance is good for their nation but Brexit is bad the for the UK often completely contradict each over.

Scottish/Welsh independence and Brexit are different things but how would you say self governance and Brexit completely contradict each other?

[Eric the Half a Bee]

I always find it difficult to comprehend those who make political arguments for independence such as SNP and Plaid, but hate Brexit, while I do understand the notion that they may dislike Westminster but not Brussels. The arguments about why self governance is good for their nation but Brexit is bad the for the UK often completely contradict each over.

You could equally suggest that it's daft to support leaving one union while being entirely behind another one.

From my perspective, the more power that Westminster has to rule over Wales can only be a bad thing. We gave Westminster more power by leaving the EU. The next step is to remove devolved governments and have Westminster rule the entire UK. I fundamentally disagree with that.

[surge]

I always find it difficult to comprehend those who make political arguments for independence such as SNP and Plaid, but hate Brexit, while I do understand the notion that they may dislike Westminster but not Brussels. The arguments about why self governance is good for their nation but Brexit is bad the for the UK often completely contradict each over.

Official EU voting records* show that the British government has voted ‘No’ to laws passed at EU level on 56 occasions, abstained 70 times, and voted ‘Yes’ 2,466 times since 1999, according to UK in a Changing Europe Fellows Sara Hagemann and Simon Hix. In other words, UK ministers were on the “winning side” 95% of the time, abstained 3% of the time, and were on the losing side 2%.

https://fullfact.org/europe/eu-facts...-uk-influence/

Probably no such thing as self government but the interests of the EU and UK aligned 95% of the time and opposed only 2% of the time. Do you think the percentages would be the same for Scotland and the UK?

[xsnaggle]

Probably no such thing as self government but the interests of the EU and UK aligned 95% of the time and opposed only 2% of the time. Do you think the percentages would be the same for Scotland and the UK?

The figures do not necessarily show that. There may have been occasions where the UK voted 'yes' and were on the losing side and other occasions where they voted 'no' and were on the winning side. Taken bare of any further information the numbers are pointless.

[Moodybluebird]

Regarding the armed forces, nothing would change other than an independent Scotland having to contribute to the defence budget. I could not imagine any circumstances under which they would be prepared or allowed to create their own defence force.

[xsnaggle]

Regarding the armed forces, nothing would change other than an independent Scotland having to contribute to the defence budget. I could not imagine any circumstances under which they would be prepared or allowed to create their own defence force.

I meant to comment on this before. you say what you say with the utter confidence of someone who is convinced of his own opinion. I don't mean that nastily but I cannot see what the confidence is built on.
When southern Ireland ceded from the union it raised its own defence force so why shouldn't Scotland? I recall during the last referendum Scottish pro independence people saying they would run Faslane on a commercial business servicing and repairing the ships of any Navy that paid for their services. The British government said at the time that the could not permit any submarine to enter Faslane that may have an effect on the UK's national interests. Can you imagine Russian boomer turning up to get serviced? It would never be allowed to happen.
But if as you say they just contribute to the overall defence costs and UK continues to protect them where will the get the money from and who will foot the bill for UK Troops in Scottish garrisons?. Will they also be part of NATO and how will they contribute to that?

All these things just add more and more costs to the strain already on the budget and Ms Sturgeon has just pledged that if they win the election they will double family benefit. Additionally in the short term at least they will be a loss of jobs, particularly if the military in Scotland is downsized. And I don't just mean the troops but all the civilians that work in the dockyards airfields and barracks and all the small companies that supply them. And that has another knock on effect to the community businesses that those unemployed people used to spend their money in.
I can't honestly see how they will be able to sustain and (as they aspire) increase the standards of living of the population with the burden of all the costs their independence will land them with. Loss of jobs will also decrease tax revenue decrease VAT revenue and increase the burden of unemployment benefits and the other payments that support families.

Someone said they will get a lump from the pension pot but that is not how it works. When it was set up it was on the principle that what is collected in pay packets this week goes out to the pensioners next week, and despite the growing cost that is still the principle it is based on. They didn't start taking NI payment months before they began paying pensions in is an in-out system. The government meets the weekly shortfall from other revenue but it was never intended for that to need to happen.
So if they leave they will have to collect from a reduced work force and find more money to sustain the level of payments.
Also if all the pension and financial institutions feel the need to migrate to the remaining UK where the vast majority of their business is they will take a good number of their workers with them, further reducing the number paying into the government communal pot and leaving a higher percentage of non working population to care fo.

I think people may think from this that I believe the biggest problem for them is and will be financial. And the high minded and very honourable feelings of Scottish Patriotism will feel cold in the stomach when there is no food on the table for the children

[Taunton Blue Genie]

I meant to comment on this before. you say what you say with the utter confidence of someone who is convinced of his own opinion. I don't mean that nastily but I cannot see what the confidence is built on.
When southern Ireland ceded from the union it raised its own defence force so why shouldn't Scotland? I recall during the last referendum Scottish pro independence people saying they would run Faslane on a commercial business servicing and repairing the ships of any Navy that paid for their services. The British government said at the time that the could not permit any submarine to enter Faslane that may have an effect on the UK's national interests. Can you imagine Russian boomer turning up to get serviced? It would never be allowed to happen.
But if as you say they just contribute to the overall defence costs and UK continues to protect them where will the get the money from and who will foot the bill for UK Troops in Scottish garrisons?. Will they also be part of NATO and how will they contribute to that?

All these things just add more and more costs to the strain already on the budget and Ms Sturgeon has just pledged that if they win the election they will double family benefit. Additionally in the short term at least they will be a loss of jobs, particularly if the military in Scotland is downsized. And I don't just mean the troops but all the civilians that work in the dockyards airfields and barracks and all the small companies that supply them. And that has another knock on effect to the community businesses that those unemployed people used to spend their money in.
I can't honestly see how they will be able to sustain and (as they aspire) increase the standards of living of the population with the burden of all the costs their independence will land them with. Loss of jobs will also decrease tax revenue decrease VAT revenue and increase the burden of unemployment benefits and the other payments that support families.

Someone said they will get a lump from the pension pot but that is not how it works. When it was set up it was on the principle that what is collected in pay packets this week goes out to the pensioners next week, and despite the growing cost that is still the principle it is based on. They didn't start taking NI payment months before they began paying pensions in is an in-out system. The government meets the weekly shortfall from other revenue but it was never intended for that to need to happen.
So if they leave they will have to collect from a reduced work force and find more money to sustain the level of payments.
Also if all the pension and financial institutions feel the need to migrate to the remaining UK where the vast majority of their business is they will take a good number of their workers with them, further reducing the number paying into the government communal pot and leaving a higher percentage of non working population to care fo.

I think people may think from this that I believe the biggest problem for them is and will be financial. And the high minded and very honourable feelings of Scottish Patriotism will feel cold in the stomach when there is no food on the table for the children

Going off at a tangent, Ireland doesn't chart its own waters. That task is still carried out by the UK government, which also owns most of the IP therein.

[Eric the Half a Bee]

I meant to comment on this before. you say what you say with the utter confidence of someone who is convinced of his own opinion. I don't mean that nastily but I cannot see what the confidence is built on.
When southern Ireland ceded from the union it raised its own defence force so why shouldn't Scotland? I recall during the last referendum Scottish pro independence people saying they would run Faslane on a commercial business servicing and repairing the ships of any Navy that paid for their services. The British government said at the time that the could not permit any submarine to enter Faslane that may have an effect on the UK's national interests. Can you imagine Russian boomer turning up to get serviced? It would never be allowed to happen.
But if as you say they just contribute to the overall defence costs and UK continues to protect them where will the get the money from and who will foot the bill for UK Troops in Scottish garrisons?. Will they also be part of NATO and how will they contribute to that?

All these things just add more and more costs to the strain already on the budget and Ms Sturgeon has just pledged that if they win the election they will double family benefit. Additionally in the short term at least they will be a loss of jobs, particularly if the military in Scotland is downsized. And I don't just mean the troops but all the civilians that work in the dockyards airfields and barracks and all the small companies that supply them. And that has another knock on effect to the community businesses that those unemployed people used to spend their money in.
I can't honestly see how they will be able to sustain and (as they aspire) increase the standards of living of the population with the burden of all the costs their independence will land them with. Loss of jobs will also decrease tax revenue decrease VAT revenue and increase the burden of unemployment benefits and the other payments that support families.

Someone said they will get a lump from the pension pot but that is not how it works. When it was set up it was on the principle that what is collected in pay packets this week goes out to the pensioners next week, and despite the growing cost that is still the principle it is based on. They didn't start taking NI payment months before they began paying pensions in is an in-out system. The government meets the weekly shortfall from other revenue but it was never intended for that to need to happen.
So if they leave they will have to collect from a reduced work force and find more money to sustain the level of payments.
Also if all the pension and financial institutions feel the need to migrate to the remaining UK where the vast majority of their business is they will take a good number of their workers with them, further reducing the number paying into the government communal pot and leaving a higher percentage of non working population to care fo.

I think people may think from this that I believe the biggest problem for them is and will be financial. And the high minded and very honourable feelings of Scottish Patriotism will feel cold in the stomach when there is no food on the table for the children

I find it odd, in a way, that those of a right wing persuasion use tales of economic woe in order to keep Scotland at the UK table, yet generally right wing politics looks at ways of saving taxpayer money and surely Scotland leaving the UK would do such a thing?

I feel that there's an element of Scotland needing to be "told of their place" to keep them in the UK. That's horrific. Scotland don't need to be told of where they stand by anyone else.

Wales has suffered the same. We became, during Victorian times, the stereotype of what England thought we were.

[LeningradCowboy]

I find it odd, in a way, that those of a right wing persuasion use tales of economic woe in order to keep Scotland at the UK table, yet generally right wing politics looks at ways of saving taxpayer money and surely Scotland leaving the UK would do such a thing?

I feel that there's an element of Scotland needing to be "told of their place" to keep them in the UK. That's horrific. Scotland don't need to be told of where they stand by anyone else.

Wales has suffered the same. We became, during Victorian times, the stereotype of what England thought we were.

Perhaps the rest of us should have a referendum on kicking them out.

[Taunton Blue Genie]

I find it odd, in a way, that those of a right wing persuasion use tales of economic woe in order to keep Scotland at the UK table, yet generally right wing politics looks at ways of saving taxpayer money and surely Scotland leaving the UK would do such a thing?

I feel that there's an element of Scotland needing to be "told of their place" to keep them in the UK. That's horrific. Scotland don't need to be told of where they stand by anyone else.

Wales has suffered the same. We became, during Victorian times, the stereotype of what England thought we were.

I understand what you mean and in many ways England would be better off shedding Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland - but I think that there is tremendous affection for the Scots in England and across the political divide.

[xsnaggle]

I find it odd, in a way, that those of a right wing persuasion use tales of economic woe in order to keep Scotland at the UK table, yet generally right wing politics looks at ways of saving taxpayer money and surely Scotland leaving the UK would do such a thing?

I feel that there's an element of Scotland needing to be "told of their place" to keep them in the UK. That's horrific. Scotland don't need to be told of where they stand by anyone else.

Wales has suffered the same. We became, during Victorian times, the stereotype of what England thought we were.

I am not trying to tell tales of economic woe to keep them at the table at all, in fact I'd be quite happy if the bugger off, I don't really care one way or the other. I just feel that perhaps as with Brexit, the jingoism is hiding the harsh economic reality. And their new economic reality will be far harsher I believe than anything Brexit may have allegedly inflicted on them.

You are quite right, the Scots don't need to be told where they stand by anyone else, but they do deserve to be told it by their own politicians who hide the truth from them for their own political ends. However badly it might go their place in history is assured

[LeningradCowboy]

I meant to comment on this before. you say what you say with the utter confidence of someone who is convinced of his own opinion. I don't mean that nastily but I cannot see what the confidence is built on.
When southern Ireland ceded from the union it raised its own defence force so why shouldn't Scotland? I recall during the last referendum Scottish pro independence people saying they would run Faslane on a commercial business servicing and repairing the ships of any Navy that paid for their services. The British government said at the time that the could not permit any submarine to enter Faslane that may have an effect on the UK's national interests. Can you imagine Russian boomer turning up to get serviced? It would never be allowed to happen.
But if as you say they just contribute to the overall defence costs and UK continues to protect them where will the get the money from and who will foot the bill for UK Troops in Scottish garrisons?. Will they also be part of NATO and how will they contribute to that?

All these things just add more and more costs to the strain already on the budget and Ms Sturgeon has just pledged that if they win the election they will double family benefit. Additionally in the short term at least they will be a loss of jobs, particularly if the military in Scotland is downsized. And I don't just mean the troops but all the civilians that work in the dockyards airfields and barracks and all the small companies that supply them. And that has another knock on effect to the community businesses that those unemployed people used to spend their money in.
I can't honestly see how they will be able to sustain and (as they aspire) increase the standards of living of the population with the burden of all the costs their independence will land them with. Loss of jobs will also decrease tax revenue decrease VAT revenue and increase the burden of unemployment benefits and the other payments that support families.

Someone said they will get a lump from the pension pot but that is not how it works. When it was set up it was on the principle that what is collected in pay packets this week goes out to the pensioners next week, and despite the growing cost that is still the principle it is based on. They didn't start taking NI payment months before they began paying pensions in is an in-out system. The government meets the weekly shortfall from other revenue but it was never intended for that to need to happen.
So if they leave they will have to collect from a reduced work force and find more money to sustain the level of payments.
Also if all the pension and financial institutions feel the need to migrate to the remaining UK where the vast majority of their business is they will take a good number of their workers with them, further reducing the number paying into the government communal pot and leaving a higher percentage of non working population to care fo.

I think people may think from this that I believe the biggest problem for them is and will be financial. And the high minded and very honourable feelings of Scottish Patriotism will feel cold in the stomach when there is no food on the table for the children

It amazes me how many people don't understand this.

[Jeff Mansfield]

I have mulling over this and all it's implications for a while now. I don't pretend to have answers but wonder what other board members feel about certain aspects of it.

First of all who should vote? Should it be people from any nationality who reside in Scotland or only Scots? Should Scottish people living outside the country be entitled to vote as it is their homeland?
Or as it affects everyone in the UK should all UK citizens be allowed to vote? (Personally I think if this were the case they would probably be gone tomorrow, although it isn't my preferred option)

But assuming the vote is for separation what do we think will be the outcome of certain problems.
1. Armed forces: Should they be given certain part of the Army Navy and RAF or should they raise their own forces? I think from my experience if the soldiers themselves were given the option the vast majority would elect for their units to remain in the reduced UK and if it didn't the soldiers would migrate,
This also feeds into the economy. Where will the new Scotland find the money to raise equip maintain and pay a new security force? And what would happen to military facilities like Faslane?

2. Currency. What would happen if the UK government refused them the use of Stirling? They couldn't use the euro as they would not be part of the EU, and despite all the rhetoric would not become a member for the foreseeable future.

3. Border controls if any. This shouldn't be a problem unless they start cosying up to regimes that affect the British national interests.

4. Scottish Nationals requiring residency permits to remain in UK.

5. Travel for people going on holiday will they still want to fly from the usual airports or will companies run more charters from Scotland and pass on the extra cost?

6. North Sea Oil. Such as it now is the SNP claims this is entirely Scottish but they'd have a job winning that argument in court. And the companies mining it would have a say too.

7. The EU. already mentioned but even if they do not join they will have to thrash out a separate trade deal with the EU. I think the Canada deal took 7 years. In the mean while they would not be able to trade normally with any part of Ireland. There would also be the question of the movement of goods to non-scottish ports, which then feeds into the taxing and registering of vehicles, particularly vehicles crossing into England/Ireland and whether drivers would need a green card or additional insurance to scottish domestic insurance.

8. The Scottish underlying debt. I believe this is now in the order of £8 billion. This has arisen apparently not because of underfunding from Westminster but because of the SNP government's profligacy. So would they expect the UK to clear this or would it be a burden round their neck from day 1? Bearing in mind they would have a much shrunken economy and more to pay for despite the increased tax income.

9. Is their health service in a fit state to serve the population, not least because of their huge drug and alcohol problems

The list could go on and it depends largely of the feelings on the break-ep. If the UK government wanted to play hard ball it would affect every level of life in Scotland and could be done without breaking any international laws, like requiring certain vaccinations for people crossing the border, non acceptance of Scottish education certificates for work in UK. Scots not being allowed to take a job in the remaining UK if there is a person already in UK who is qualified and out of work.
I think it would be unreasonable to assume that the UK government would allow Scotland to leave the union but still automatically enjoy all the benefits of being part of it. There must be a price to pay sooner or later.
If you have read this far thank you. If you are now bored to tears my apologies, but I have all these questions and no answers, so I'd love to know what others think. And I'm sure some will think of things I haven't.

Thanks for reading! I hope this won't get moved to the politics forum as it is not directl welsh politics and is just for general discussion and/or banter

Edit: and the final question, why is it you think you've fixed all the typos and then see loads more as soon as you post!!

Interesting post, good questions..I don't have any answers but why don't you mail all your questions to the SNP and let us know what they say.

[Cyncoed Slumdog]

Alex Salmond has today set up his own pro independence party which should muddy the waters. Personally, I don't see how they could survive as an independent nation without reopening the haggis mines.