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Welsh government strategy and evidence page: https://gov.wales/strategy-evidence-coronavirus
The eventual themes of the pandemic rules have been:
- reduce contact number and contact duration
- outdoor is safer than indoor*
- virus spreads quicker where there is projection which is why singing/shouting is bad and masks are good**
- greater compliance when there is a perception we're all in it together
*There was a really slow recognition that indoor can be made safer with good ventilation. It continues to be too slow.
** For whatever reason the initial advice was anti-masks. Was that bad science or wanting to avoid the cost?
It's perceived likely that we'll have a third wave.
Why no aggressive re-opening with vaccine roll-out?
No vaccine is perfect. Each vaccine will give different levels of protection
against severe disease; the chance of being infected (with symptoms or not)
and chance of infecting someone else if infected.
For example, if 100% of adults are offered the vaccine, covering 80% of
the population (i.e. excluding children), there is 90% uptake overall, and the
vaccine is effective for 80% of the population, then 58% of the population
of Wales will have protection. When combined with immunity from previous
infections, the total amount of protection is large, but it is not enough to
prevent further significant outbreaks in the population. If the virus is still
circulating in our communities, there is more chance of new mutant variations
in the virus emerging.
A large outbreak of coronavirus will put pressure on the NHS and other
local services.
In 2020, people in their late teens, 20s and 30s had significantly more social
contacts. As we relax restrictions and people being to mix again, there will
be more opportunities for COVID-19 to spread among these groups until they
are vaccinated. Although deaths in these groups are rare, around 25% of
hospitalisations are in under 60s, and long-COVID (post-COVID syndrome)
is a continuing concern.
https://gov.wales/coronavirus-contro...les-march-2021
I'm sorry, I don't want to reduce the thread into a petty argument but you have lost me with my supposed commenst about Johnson, can you direct me to them please. So far as I recall I have never made particular comments about any of the leading political figures in this mess except Drakeford, and, as I have pointed out before and is a point you steadfastly and blinkeredly refuse to acknowledge, it has nothing to do with party politics, it is the man. I don't trust him and I don't like him. I think he allows his own opinions and his own vision of his political beliefs cloud his judgement, and that he often makes the right decisions for the wrong reasons. Now it may not matter why to some folks, so long as its right but that is only good so long as it is right.
I'm not and never have defended Johnson, just because he is in power. I think the same cock ups and nonsense would have happened during this disaster who ever was in power.
I'm allowed to have mad ideas if I want to. It isn't illegal in this country------- yet!!
But on a serious note, and one which probably won't be acknowledged, just before lockdown in December a study revealed that there was no evidence to suggest that pubs and restaurants were hotspots of infection or that they added to the spread significantly. The report actually determined that th biggest causes of spread were contact amongst extended families and in the local communities as in people going in and out of each others houses and corner shops.
Drakeford actually quoted this in one of his briefings, acknowledging that they were not a great cause, and immediately after closed all the pubs and restaurants, and is now intent that they should stay closed as long as possible.
Where ever you stand that very clearly does not make any sense!
Do you have a link to the study? Think we need to be cautious because i) initially there was no evidence to say it was an airborne virus but now there are lots of studies to say that it is - lack of evidence sometimes just means lack of evidence, ii) you can probably find a study to say anything but need to check how effectively it's been set up and how it managed limitations and iii) there is evidence that spread is much more likely indoors so why are pubs/restaurants different?
If we're following that study we'd be better off banning corner shops and meeting inside the home (there are rules for the latter) but keep restaurants open. That might be seen as the better option if/when this sort of thing happens again.
Sometimes it's just a political choice though. Scotland made the conscious choice that if it was one of schools or pubs that schools would be protected and pretty sure most would agree with that.
Spot on , how anyone in the world could have a avoided a wrong decision ( or cock up as some like to call it ) is beyond me .
I've been accused of the same political drivel , ( tip of the day ) don't criticise the Labour party nationally or locally or your instantly a Tory by default.
I think the same cock ups and nonsense would have happened during this disaster who ever was in power.You realise you're saying something different, don't you?how anyone in the world could have a avoided a wrong decision ( or cock up as some like to call it ) is beyond me .
You only have to go back to RJK's post earlier to see that while Scotland may currently have the highest number of cases their peak over winter was the smallest and that Wales had an earlier peak but was smaller and already on it's way down before England and Northern Ireland peaked to the point that it's been lowest in Wales for past two months. Blatantly the same cock-ups haven't happened around the UK, and some (Sunak) have made more cock-ups than others.
I don't have a link it was a report on the BBC news web site, I'm sure there are people on here more IT savvy than me who could find it but they may not wish to. I agree it was almost certainly a political decision in the whole of UK not just Wales. They clearly couold not physically prevent people from mixing in the community nor in families, even extended ones but they could stop people using pubs and restaurants.
The problem is if you close the pubs and restaurants and the infection rates go down they say, see we told you so, but perhaps if the had been able to stop one of the other 2 things the rate may have gone down even more. Obviously we will never know. But they said opening schools would cause ac rise of some sort in infections but the figures imply that it has done no such thing.
For bloop, I don't recall Drakeford saying the corner shop thing but he definitely did say that mixing in the community and people going in and out of people houses was one of the biggest problems and he did acknowledge that the study they were referring to had shown that infections in pubs and restaurants were not a major driver of infections. I did actually reference it in a post at the time, probably in the Corona virus thread if anyone cares enough to find it.
Anyway besides all that, I want my pub open, and I'll scream and scream and stamp my foot until it is. so there!!!!!