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Thread: Senedd election prediction

  1. #26

    Re: Senedd election prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by Former Labour leader View Post
    Not quite right Sludge. As at today Lab have 29 seats but are supported by 2, a Lib and Ind.
    Its close enough , its going to be a Labour Welsh government or Labour led coalition

  2. #27

    Re: Senedd election prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by SLUDGE FACTORY View Post
    tories will win more seats than plaid

    Which is worrying for plaid and worrying for everyone

    Labour need to get rid of Vaughan Gethin and Drakeford pronto
    Although not worrying for everyone. The conservative voters won’t worry at all will they!

  3. #28

    Re: Senedd election prediction

    What worries me more is somebody saying that a party need to get rid of their leaders. Doesn’t say much about the party does it?

  4. #29
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    Re: Senedd election prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by SLUDGE FACTORY View Post
    Its close enough , its going to be a Labour Welsh government or Labour led coalition
    Close, but no cigar!!!!

  5. #30
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    Re: Senedd election prediction

    I voted about an hour or so ago and I had a chat with one of the tellers whom I know. She has been working in my local polling station for a number of years and said she has never seen it so busy, even in General Elections.
    She said the have had a queue all day albeit only 4 or 5 people but she has never ever seen a queue before and also that they normally use 1 ballot box and as we spoke they were currently on their third for the day.
    I know there is extra paper because of the Police commissioner vote but even so there seems to be more people than usual bothering to cast their votes.

    That cannot be a bad thing, but if it is mirrored across Wales who will benefit? That's the question?

    I would just add that there was a small queue when I voted when I went in and when I came out and that was close to 8 PM, most unusual.

  6. #31

    Re: Senedd election prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by Lord Dargavel View Post
    Although not worrying for everyone. The conservative voters won’t worry at all will they!
    Well as long as they don't get enough votes to run the country I couldn't give two fecks

    If they increase the amount of people that vote for them they will see it as a victory but as long as Labour get a decent leader they will be always spouting off from the sidelines

    Which is what Labour nationally needs to do , get rid of starmer

  7. #32

    Re: Senedd election prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by Lord Dargavel View Post
    What worries me more is somebody saying that a party need to get rid of their leaders. Doesn’t say much about the party does it?
    I don't care , drakeford has had his marching orders so its onwards and upwards

  8. #33

    Re: Senedd election prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by xsnaggle View Post
    Close, but no cigar!!!!
    if Labour govern directly or with a coalition I don't care

    Nationally Labour should team up with the liberals so it makes sense to me

  9. #34

    Re: Senedd election prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by xsnaggle View Post
    I voted about an hour or so ago and I had a chat with one of the tellers whom I know. She has been working in my local polling station for a number of years and said she has never seen it so busy, even in General Elections.
    She said the have had a queue all day albeit only 4 or 5 people but she has never ever seen a queue before and also that they normally use 1 ballot box and as we spoke they were currently on their third for the day.
    I know there is extra paper because of the Police commissioner vote but even so there seems to be more people than usual bothering to cast their votes.

    That cannot be a bad thing, but if it is mirrored across Wales who will benefit? That's the question?

    I would just add that there was a small queue when I voted when I went in and when I came out and that was close to 8 PM, most unusual.
    poor weather and a low turnout usually favours the conservatives but maybe the recent bounce in support for the tories has seen them come out

  10. #35
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    Re: Senedd election prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by SLUDGE FACTORY View Post
    if Labour govern directly or with a coalition I don't care

    Nationally Labour should team up with the liberals so it makes sense to me
    Two things. firstly you were incorrect, and secondly it will be difficult for labour to team up with the liberals in Wales if they manage to lose their one and only seat.

  11. #36

    Re: Senedd election prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by SLUDGE FACTORY View Post
    Very few

    Plaid offers a clear option , if independence was as strong as you and other nationalists want it to be , then the vote wouldn't be trailing behind the tories

    You are kidding yourself but carry on
    2 questions:

    1. Do you believe everyone who wants independence would only vote Plaid?

    2. Do you believe everyone who votes Plaid wants independence?

  12. #37

    Re: Senedd election prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by xsnaggle View Post
    Two things. firstly you were incorrect, and secondly it will be difficult for labour to team up with the liberals in Wales if they manage to lose their one and only seat.
    Two things , Labour if they win the majority of seats either rule outright or with a coalition . That's fine by me .

    Nationally is UK wide , as in general elections

    Even so the liberals seem a bust flush so I think a left of centre party to keep out the tories which the majority of the electorate want is the future

  13. #38
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    Re: Senedd election prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric the Half a Bee View Post
    2 questions:

    1. Do you believe everyone who wants independence would only vote Plaid?

    2. Do you believe everyone who votes Plaid wants independence?
    You're just trying to confuse now aren't you?

    Bad Eric!!

  14. #39

    Re: Senedd election prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by xsnaggle View Post
    You're just trying to confuse now aren't you?

    Bad Eric!!
    Confusing Sludge isn't difficult at times. If Kate Humble was naked in her car on the back seat and there was a kebab on the bonnet, he wouldn't know what to do.

  15. #40

    Re: Senedd election prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric the Half a Bee View Post
    2 questions:

    1. Do you believe everyone who wants independence would only vote Plaid?

    2. Do you believe everyone who votes Plaid wants independence?
    generally

    generally

    Adam Price has been spouting on the TV for weeks asking people to vote plaid

    You and your lot have their chance

    If plaids vote increases then great , if they gain seats fantastic

    If Plaid Cymru , the only true independence party at this election don't do really well then either all these polls about increasing support for independence are cobblers or the pro independence lot can't be bothered

    The way to change things is to vote

    If people can't be arsed to vote for an independence party in 2021 , when are they going to bother ?

  16. #41

    Re: Senedd election prediction

    I’m actually surprised by the amount of people I know that have voted Plaid, including a number of lifetime Labour voters. Might be too early to have an impact this election though. Regardless of where you stand, a shake up can only benefit Welsh Politics.

    My local place was saying they’ve had a a good turnout with youngsters too. I had to queue around 40 minutes.

  17. #42

    Re: Senedd election prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by SLUDGE FACTORY View Post
    generally

    generally

  18. #43

    Re: Senedd election prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by Bruce Parry View Post
    I’m actually surprised by the amount of people I know that have voted Plaid, including a number of lifetime Labour voters. Might be too early to have an impact this election though. Regardless of where you stand, a shake up can only benefit Welsh Politics.

    My local place was saying they’ve had a a good turnout with youngsters too. I had to queue around 40 minutes.
    Plaid is the obvious choice for any left leaning voter disillusioned with Labour, that's the message I'm getting from friends of mine.

    I know lots of people who still vote Labour but want independence, but Sludge won't have that.

  19. #44

    Re: Senedd election prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric the Half a Bee View Post
    Plaid is the obvious choice for any left leaning voter disillusioned with Labour, that's the message I'm getting from friends of mine.

    I know lots of people who still vote Labour but want independence, but Sludge won't have that.
    We will see tomorrow if left leaning Labour voters have deserted Labour for plaid

    Or the Labour vote has gone to the tories

    If people want independence then why are they voting Labour and not plaid ?

    They sound like crackpots

  20. #45

    Re: Senedd election prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by SLUDGE FACTORY View Post
    We will see tomorrow if left leaning Labour voters have deserted Labour for plaid

    Or the Labour vote has gone to the tories

    If people want independence then why are they voting Labour and not plaid ?

    They sound like crackpots
    Is it not because independence isn't an issue in this election and it is possible to support independence and vote for someone other than Plaid?

    I also think it's too simplistic to suggest that Labour will only lose votes to the Tories (and hence Plaid don't pick up or lose voters accordingly).

  21. #46

    Re: Senedd election prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric the Half a Bee View Post
    Is it not because independence isn't an issue in this election and it is possible to support independence and vote for someone other than Plaid?

    I also think it's too simplistic to suggest that Labour will only lose votes to the Tories (and hence Plaid don't pick up or lose voters accordingly).
    I think the next election might be the "independence election", especially if Scotland goes. The surge has come too late for it to really impact this one, especially considering the current conditions

  22. #47

    Re: Senedd election prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by City123 View Post
    I think the next election might be the "independence election", especially if Scotland goes. The surge has come too late for it to really impact this one, especially considering the current conditions
    Yes, agreed. Covid is the real issue for this election. There is also the perception by some that Plaid = nationalism, yet independence doesn't = nationalism and that it's entirely possible to be interested in independence without being a nationalist.

  23. #48

    Re: Senedd election prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric the Half a Bee View Post
    Yes, agreed. Covid is the real issue for this election. There is also the perception by some that Plaid = nationalism, yet independence doesn't = nationalism and that it's entirely possible to be interested in independence without being a nationalist.
    If Labour's vote holds up it will be due to Mark Drakeford and his handling of covid. If Tories make gains, as I expect them too, it will be due to Boris Johnson's vaccine bounce and Brexit. Plaid will be squeezed by these two parties and will have a disappointing election. Independence for Wales is a very long way off.

  24. #49

    Re: Senedd election prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric the Half a Bee View Post
    2 questions:

    1. Do you believe everyone who wants independence would only vote Plaid?

    2. Do you believe everyone who votes Plaid wants independence?
    Exactly. Don’t mind admitting to voting Plaid Cymru although would vote against independence.
    Would like to see Wales governed by someone other than labour (not going to happen I know) as after 22 years their achievements could be listed on a fag packet

  25. #50

    Re: Senedd election prediction

    There seems to be a large amount of labour voters turning to plaid, at least on the regional list. I can see plaid improving on their seats last time and it’s a win win for them.

    As long as Plaid maintain or improve seats and number of votes which does look likely, if the Tories do well and weaken Labours stance considerably on last time then Plaids negotiation power increases with every seat that labour loses.

    In regards to the independence debate a lot of Labour supporters are at least considering it now and an 825% increase in paying YesCymru members (in less than 12 months) show there is an increased appetite. The seats to watch are the pro-Indy labour candidates, if they win their seats in addition to Plaid winning seats they could make up a solid portion of the Senedd.

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