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Thread: Senedd election prediction

  1. #101

    Re: Senedd election prediction

    Tories take Clwyd from Labour in a very tight contest

  2. #102

    Re: Senedd election prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by City123 View Post
    It would be a huge shame to lose Leanne Wood
    can she be elected on the regional list? Or was it all or nothing on the constituency poll?

  3. #103

    Re: Senedd election prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by cityhammer View Post
    can she be elected on the regional list? Or was it all or nothing on the constituency poll?
    Pretty sure she wasn’t on the regional list.

  4. #104

    Re: Senedd election prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by cityhammer View Post
    can she be elected on the regional list? Or was it all or nothing on the constituency poll?
    She's not on the list

  5. #105

    Re: Senedd election prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by surge View Post
    He's a cautious, unsexy nerd. We live in a time (have we always?) where a strong leader is usually preferred but perhaps covid is the one occasion where caution and nerdish behaviour is admired.
    Cometh the hour cometh the man. Drakeford is the Welsh Winston Churchill.

  6. #106

    Re: Senedd election prediction

    Lib Dems and UKIP getting a right kicking, seem to be in the hundreds in most seats

  7. #107

    Re: Senedd election prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by City123 View Post
    She's not on the list
    Any reason for that? It's really disappointing news someone like her is now missing whereas we can expect some Abolish louts to get in.

  8. #108

    Re: Senedd election prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by surge View Post
    Any reason for that? It's really disappointing news someone like her is now missing whereas we can expect some Abolish cretins to get in.
    I don't know, its strange as well because Plaid weren't particularly confident of holding the seat going in

    All the smaller parties seem to be getting a kicking, Labour, Tories & Plaid well ahead of the rest atm. Hopefully that means the pre election Abolish hype was misplaced

  9. #109

    Re: Senedd election prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by City123 View Post
    I don't know, its strange as well because Plaid weren't particularly confident of holding the seat going in

    All the smaller parties seem to be getting a kicking, Labour, Tories & Plaid well ahead of the rest atm. Hopefully that means the pre election Abolish hype was misplaced
    I agree itll be a shame if shes not in the Sennedd. Plaid dont look like they're going to gain any constituency seats so will hope of increasing their representation by gaining some regional seats from UKIP.

  10. #110

    Re: Senedd election prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by The Bloop View Post
    I agree itll be a shame if shes not in the Sennedd. Plaid dont look like they're going to gain any constituency seats so will hope of increasing their representation by gaining some regional seats from UKIP.
    Its a strange one though. The polls immediately before the election looked pretty bad for Plaid but they're picking up votes. Up 1,200 in West Carmarthen, up 200 Clwyd South, up 2,200 in Preseii, up 2,200 in Wrexham, up 2,000 in Montgomery, up 1,000 in Gower

    Disappointing results in Aberconwy & Caerphilly for them though

  11. #111

    Re: Senedd election prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by Rjk View Post
    Tories take Clwyd from Labour in a very tight contest
    That’s the only one they took in their targeted North Wales Labour seats though it seems.

  12. #112

    Re: Senedd election prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by City123 View Post
    She's not on the list
    could she have been a candidate and on regional list tho? I don’t understand how this crazy system works.

  13. #113

    Re: Senedd election prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by the other bob wilson View Post
    That’s the only one they took in their targeted North Wales Labour seats though it seems.
    yes they would have been hoping for a lot more than this!

  14. #114

    Re: Senedd election prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by cityhammer View Post
    could she have been a candidate and on regional list tho? I don’t understand how this crazy system works.
    Yes, she was a constituency candidate and on the list last time. For some reason she isn't on it this time

  15. #115

    Re: Senedd election prediction

    Mark Reckless (too many drinks in the Westminster bar to vote on a budget when he was an MP) got 3.3% of the vote. I don't swear often on here but he's an absolute prick.

  16. #116

    Re: Senedd election prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by City123 View Post
    It would be a huge shame to lose Leanne Wood
    Seriously? Plaid need to do better, but Leanne Wood wasn't the answer.

  17. #117

    Re: Senedd election prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by SLUDGE FACTORY View Post
    cobblers
    Are you shoe-r?

  18. #118

    Re: Senedd election prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by tforturton View Post
    Seriously? Plaid need to do better, but Leanne Wood wasn't the answer.
    The answer IS probably someone at the head of the party from the Valleys who seems credible.

    As the only real left-wing alternative in Wales, Plaid have to do something to make up some ground in South East Wales.

    I think a lot of people vote Labour just because they can't stand the Tories. I voted Plaid in West Carmarthen and part of me thinks it might have been wiser to vote labour , considering the margins.

  19. #119

    Re: Senedd election prediction

    seems like a good night for labour

  20. #120

    Re: Senedd election prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by surge View Post
    Mark Reckless (too many drinks in the Westminster bar to vote on a budget when he was an MP) got 3.3% of the vote. I don't swear often on here but he's an absolute prick.
    I think I saw aswell that Neil Hamilton got less than 1000 votes. Hope that's the end of him too.

  21. #121

    Re: Senedd election prediction

    I think Plaid will finish as third biggest party but probably made mistakes in: setting a date for referendum when it currently scares a lot of people and perhaps promising to spend too aggressively in their manifesto. The transformative policies are good but think parties of the left need slightly more focus on what's most important/achievable - combining with Gwlad team might help do this.

    In addition, fear that Tories would win in big numbers and pandemic giving Labour center stage has probably lost them votes too.

    I know it's still early days, much to play for, but is anyone else looking forward to Sludge hastily updating his views on Mark Drakeford?

  22. #122

    Re: Senedd election prediction

    Preseli Pembrokeshire:

    i)Tories win with 39.0% of the vote and if combined with Reform would get 42.9%.
    ii) Labour second with 34.6% but if combined with Plaid would have 54.1%

    Carmarthen West & Pembrokeshire South:

    i) Tories win with 35.5% of the vote and if combined with Reform and UKIP would get 39.9%
    ii) Labour second with 32.6% but if combined with Plaid would get 53.5%

    I know it still doesn't work like that but in another universe Labour and Plaid have taken one of those seats each rather than losing both to Tories.

  23. #123

    Re: Senedd election prediction

    Dreadful night for plaid , vote hardly moved here come the excuses

    Good night for Labour but great that drakeford will be stepping down to give a new vibrant leader a chance to pull away

    Laughing my arse off at the conservatives , cocky as feck , drooling on about the 22 stale years of Labour and all that crap

    Opinion polls in last few days of the election showing a gain in conservative support clearly brought out the good men and women of Wales to get to the polling stations and show up where it mattered to keep the tories out of power in Wales

    God bless you all

  24. #124

    Re: Senedd election prediction

    I’m so pleased that my country men and women still want decency and values. England needs a good look at itself. Good on the Scots too.

  25. #125

    Re: Senedd election prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by SLUDGE FACTORY View Post
    Dreadful night for plaid , vote hardly moved here come the excuses

    Good night for Labour but great that drakeford will be stepping down to give a new vibrant leader a chance to pull away

    Laughing my arse off at the conservatives , cocky as feck , drooling on about the 22 stale years of Labour and all that crap

    Opinion polls in last few days of the election showing a gain in conservative support clearly brought out the good men and women of Wales to get to the polling stations and show up where it mattered to keep the tories out of power in Wales

    God bless you all
    There were never going to be massive gains for Plaid. It's all about them becoming the serious left option in Wales and a long term plan for independence.

    Their manifesto was practically the same as Labour and independence will grow when hopefully Scotland and Ireland go.

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