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Thread: Senedd election prediction

  1. #1

    Senedd election prediction

    I think itíll end up around

    Labour - 25
    Plaid - 16
    Tory - 14
    Lib Dem - 1
    Abolish - 2
    Greens - 2

    Chuck down your predictions, winner gets bragging rights for 5 years

    Come on Plaid!

  2. #2

    Re: Senedd election prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by Wozza16 View Post
    I think itíll end up around

    Labour - 25
    Plaid - 16
    Tory - 14
    Lib Dem - 1
    Abolish - 2
    Greens - 2

    Chuck down your predictions, winner gets bragging rights for 5 years

    Come on Plaid!
    Think Tories will do better than 14

  3. #3

    Re: Senedd election prediction

    I think Labour will win most seats but fail to get a majority

    Whats worrying is that the conservatives are going to win more seats than plaid yet the free Wales movement claim that support for an independent Wales is growing ?

    Thats clearly nonsense as they look set to record the same number of seats they did in 2016 !

    Hardly a bandwagon 🙄

    They will have enough seats to be a junior partner in a coalition with labour so that keeps Andrew rt Davies and the conservatives out so happy days

    But its staggering the conservative vote is so high given the crap they have poured on Wales over the years . Their main attack on Labour seems to be they have had 22 years but compared to the time the tories have had running things in Westminster that's nothing . You expect areas like Monmouth and parts of mid Wales to be tory but people must have short memories if they are prepared to vote conservative given the wider picture .

    I hope drakeford steps down as soon as possible because although I think his heart is in the right place he's old school .

    As nationally Labour need a decent leader to shake things up and stick the boot into the blue meanies

  4. #4

    Re: Senedd election prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by Wozza16 View Post
    I think itíll end up around

    Labour - 25
    Plaid - 16
    Tory - 14
    Lib Dem - 1
    Abolish - 2
    Greens - 2

    Chuck down your predictions, winner gets bragging rights for 5 years

    Come on Plaid!
    tories will win more seats than plaid

    Which is worrying for plaid and worrying for everyone

    Labour need to get rid of Vaughan Gethin and Drakeford pronto

  5. #5

    Re: Senedd election prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by SLUDGE FACTORY View Post
    I think Labour will win most seats but fail to get a majority

    Whats worrying is that the conservatives are going to win more seats than plaid yet the free Wales movement claim that support for an independent Wales is growing ?

    Thats clearly nonsense as they look set to record the same number of seats they did in 2016 !

    Hardly a bandwagon 🙄

    They will have enough seats to be a junior partner in a coalition with labour so that keeps Andrew rt Davies and the conservatives out so happy days

    But its staggering the conservative vote is so high given the crap they have poured on Wales over the years . Their main attack on Labour seems to be they have had 22 years but compared to the time the tories have had running things in Westminster that's nothing . You expect areas like Monmouth and parts of mid Wales to be tory but people must have short memories if they are prepared to vote conservative given the wider picture .

    I hope drakeford steps down as soon as possible because although I think his heart is in the right place he's old school .

    As nationally Labour need a decent leader to shake things up and stick the boot into the blue meanies
    All parties have move further left including the Tories

    At the moment theyíre not as bad a self serving party they were in the 80s and 90s

    Re: the Labour leader. Thereís nothing wrong with Drakeford itís the party itself thatís the issue. They are split into factions with no direction

  6. #6

    Re: Senedd election prediction

    Labour - 24
    Plaid - 16
    Tory - 16
    Lib Dem - 1
    Abolish - 2
    Greens - 2

  7. #7

    Re: Senedd election prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by SLUDGE FACTORY View Post
    I think Labour will win most seats but fail to get a majority

    Whats worrying is that the conservatives are going to win more seats than plaid yet the free Wales movement claim that support for an independent Wales is growing ?

    Thats clearly nonsense as they look set to record the same number of seats they did in 2016 !

    Hardly a bandwagon ��

    They will have enough seats to be a junior partner in a coalition with labour so that keeps Andrew rt Davies and the conservatives out so happy days

    But its staggering the conservative vote is so high given the crap they have poured on Wales over the years . Their main attack on Labour seems to be they have had 22 years but compared to the time the tories have had running things in Westminster that's nothing . You expect areas like Monmouth and parts of mid Wales to be tory but people must have short memories if they are prepared to vote conservative given the wider picture .

    I hope drakeford steps down as soon as possible because although I think his heart is in the right place he's old school .

    As nationally Labour need a decent leader to shake things up and stick the boot into the blue meanies
    You're kidding right? Even if Plaid falter at this election the state of Welsh independence is completely different to 2016. Up to the high 20s/low 30s in the polls, not dismissed as a fringe issue, movements gaining members. All this without really any kind of campaign for independence

    The wider picture is that Labour have taken Wales for granted, its their own fault if they somehow manage to throw away their total dominance of South Wales

  8. #8

    Re: Senedd election prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by WJ99mobile View Post
    All parties have move further left including the Tories

    At the moment theyíre not as bad a self serving party they were in the 80s and 90s

    Re: the Labour leader. Thereís nothing wrong with Drakeford itís the party itself thatís the issue. They are split into factions with no direction
    The tories , and the country in general , are further to the right , patel is like Maggie thatcher and Boris is a right wing libertarian

  9. #9

    Re: Senedd election prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by City123 View Post
    You're kidding right? Even if Plaid falter at this election the state of Welsh independence is completely different to 2016. Up to the high 20s/low 30s in the polls, not dismissed as a fringe issue, movements gaining members. All this without really any kind of campaign for independence

    The wider picture is that Labour have taken Wales for granted, its their own fault if they somehow manage to throw away their total dominance of South Wales
    no I am deadly serious

    Plaid are the independence party and since 2016 it looks likely that they haven't gained any support at all , despite having a good leader

    And they are going to gain less seats than the tory party

    If you think that shows a growing movement for Welsh independence then I think you are dreaming

    Movements gaining members ? Polls ?

    Its all about what people vote for and more people will vote tory than the party of Wales

    All they can ever hope for is coalition government and if Labour get a decent leader for next time they can forget about that too

    I would prefer Labour to go into coalition with the liberals but they are dead in the water

  10. #10

    Re: Senedd election prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by WJ99mobile View Post
    All parties have move further left including the Tories

    At the moment they’re not as bad a self serving party they were in the 80s and 90s

    Re: the Labour leader. There’s nothing wrong with Drakeford it’s the party itself that’s the issue. They are split into factions with no direction
    The most recent analysis I've seen talks about economic left/right and culturally left/right. Parties may have shifted on one measure and shifted in opposite direction on the other.

  11. #11

    Re: Senedd election prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by SLUDGE FACTORY View Post
    no I am deadly serious

    Plaid are the independence party and since 2016 it looks likely that they haven't gained any support at all , despite having a good leader

    And they are going to gain less seats than the tory party

    If you think that shows a growing movement for Welsh independence then I think you are dreaming

    Movements gaining members ? Polls ?

    Its all about what people vote for and more people will vote tory than the party of Wales

    All they can ever hope for is coalition government and if Labour get a decent leader for next time they can forget about that too

    I would prefer Labour to go into coalition with the liberals but they are dead in the water
    If you choose to ignore everything else that's happened over the past few years and only focus on an election that's being held under exceptional circumstances then I don't know what to say

    Also, what are you basing Plaid not getting any support on? The election's not happened yet and its pretty inconsistent to use polls to say that whilst saying its deluded to use polls as a yardstick for growth in pro-independence feeling

  12. #12

    Re: Senedd election prediction

    I think Lib Dem or Plaid will pick up a lot of people's 2nd vote on the Regional candidate. Labour seats will be down slightly, Plaid down, Tories up a lot. Andrew 'RT' Davies will claim victory though but Labour and Plaid combined will keep them out. All of my household (4) did a postal vote a week or so ago. It'll be interesting.

  13. #13

    Re: Senedd election prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by City123 View Post
    If you choose to ignore everything else that's happened over the past few years and only focus on an election that's being held under exceptional circumstances then I don't know what to say

    Also, what are you basing Plaid not getting any support on? The election's not happened yet and its pretty inconsistent to use polls to say that whilst saying its deluded to use polls as a yardstick for growth in pro-independence feeling
    Pollsters sometimes get it wrong but everything points to Labour being the dominant party , propped up in a coalition by the Welsh nationalist Party who are likely to come third behind the tories

    If that tells you there is a growing movement for Welsh independence then that doesn't transmit to Welsh peoples voting habits , more people in Wales would rather vote tory than for plaid cymru ?

    What does that tell you about this growing movement for Welsh independence ?

    I know what it tells me

  14. #14

    Re: Senedd election prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by cardiff55 View Post
    I think Lib Dem or Plaid will pick up a lot of people's 2nd vote on the Regional candidate. Labour seats will be down slightly, Plaid down, Tories up a lot. Andrew 'RT' Davies will claim victory though but Labour and Plaid combined will keep them out. All of my household (4) did a postal vote a week or so ago. It'll be interesting.
    Labour up a bit , plaid same as before , tories up a lot , which is worrying

  15. #15

    Re: Senedd election prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by SLUDGE FACTORY View Post
    no I am deadly serious

    Plaid are the independence party and since 2016 it looks likely that they haven't gained any support at all , despite having a good leader
    People who vote for other parties support Welsh independence. Independence has not been an issue in this election, lockdowns and dislike of Drakeford have been.

    To suggest Plaid's vote is representative of independence support is utter bollocks.

  16. #16

    Re: Senedd election prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by SLUDGE FACTORY View Post
    Pollsters sometimes get it wrong but everything points to Labour being the dominant party , propped up in a coalition by the Welsh nationalist Party who are likely to come third behind the tories

    If that tells you there is a growing movement for Welsh independence then that doesn't transmit to Welsh peoples voting habits , more people in Wales would rather vote tory than for plaid cymru ?

    What does that tell you about this growing movement for Welsh independence ?

    I know what it tells me
    Polling has gone up dramatically in the past few years and is solidly in the 20s/30s, its hit the point that's its not a complete fringe issue anymore. Even if it doesn't transmit to a vote for Plaid in this one election, held under exceptional circumstances, that's still a better position than it was in this time 5 years ago

    Is it really that hard for you to accept that its in a better place than it was? All the polling data is better than it was, more people are coming round to it as a possibility and its even being discussed by the London media. One disappointing result in an election that's been held in spite of us being lockdowns for a year doesn't change the fact that it is growing

  17. #17

    Re: Senedd election prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by SLUDGE FACTORY View Post
    tories will win more seats than plaid

    Which is worrying for plaid and worrying for everyone

    Labour need to get rid of Vaughan Gethin and Drakeford pronto
    Replace them with what all developed politicians remind me of the difference between championship players v premiership ones , I'm sure they mean well though .

  18. #18

    Re: Senedd election prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric the Half a Bee View Post
    People who vote for other parties support Welsh independence. Independence has not been an issue in this election, lockdowns and dislike of Drakeford have been.

    To suggest Plaid's vote is representative of independence support is utter bollocks.
    Very few

    Plaid offers a clear option , if independence was as strong as you and other nationalists want it to be , then the vote wouldn't be trailing behind the tories

    You are kidding yourself but carry on

  19. #19

    Re: Senedd election prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by City123 View Post
    Polling has gone up dramatically in the past few years and is solidly in the 20s/30s, its hit the point that's its not a complete fringe issue anymore. Even if it doesn't transmit to a vote for Plaid in this one election, held under exceptional circumstances, that's still a better position than it was in this time 5 years ago

    Is it really that hard for you to accept that its in a better place than it was? All the polling data is better than it was, more people are coming round to it as a possibility and its even being discussed by the London media. One disappointing result in an election that's been held in spite of us being lockdowns for a year doesn't change the fact that it is growing
    Time to walk the walk

    People have the opportunity to vote for a one direction pro independence party

    Today

    Forget all the marches and opinion polls

    Let's have it

    My money says plaid vote is less than the tories

  20. #20

    Re: Senedd election prediction

    Labour will keep power.

    Not much point in anyone else bothering in Wales.

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