Senedd election prediction

[Wozza16]

Interesting point on BBC Wales last night that covid ended up really damaging Plaid, they had planned for a presidential style election campaign pitting Price against an unknown Drakeford but the immense media exposure Drakeford had doing daily press conferences helped labour massively. Also, because of the covid restrictions they lost months of potential canvassing and door knocking which is key to them as they don’t have the financial donors that labour and Tories do.

Plaid need 3-4 regional seats today to limit the damage but I can’t see more than 3 to be honest

[Tuerto]

Interesting point on BBC Wales last night that covid ended up really damaging Plaid, they had planned for a presidential style election campaign pitting Price against an unknown Drakeford but the immense media exposure Drakeford had doing daily press conferences helped labour massively. Also, because of the covid restrictions they lost months of potential canvassing and door knocking which is key to them as they don’t have the financial donors that labour and Tories do.

Plaid need 3-4 regional seats today to limit the damage but I can’t see more than 3 to be honest

I agree that the issue of Covid has helped Drakeford to a certain Degree, but it can work against a politician if they get enough wrong or if like some people think, he has no charisma etc. Drakeford has obviously got more right than wrong for most of the electorate.

[the other bob wilson]

I agree that the issue of Covid has helped Drakeford to a certain Degree, but it can work against a politician if they get enough wrong or if like some people think, he has no charisma etc. Drakeford has obviously got more right than wrong for most of the electorate.

I don't know, Johnson got virtually everything wrong with Covid during 2020 and it didn't do him, or his party, any harm.

[goats]

I don't know, Johnson got virtually everything wrong with Covid during 2020 and it didn't do him, or his party, any harm.

So did a lot of countries though, hard to see how you can prepare for such a catastrophic event well? The vaccine rollout has saved them though.

[LeningradCowboy]

I don't know, Johnson got virtually everything wrong with Covid during 2020 and it didn't do him, or his party, any harm.

What did Johnson get wrong that Drakeford didn't?

[surge]

What did Johnson get wrong that Drakeford didn't?

Both got the majority wrong but at this date (this may change in future) I think we can say Drakeford got it less wrong than Boris in a couple of key areas:

Drakeford made a better fist of managing autumn/winter period by:

- implementing a fire-break when this was the advice of the scientists - Sunak and Boris listened to anti-covid scientists instead
- locking down the whole of Wales when more transmissible Kent variant recognised (see how tier system has been dropped in England since start of the new year)
- not sending schools back for one day

Over half the deaths experienced in the UK were in autumn/winter time when the most was known about the pandemic and Drakeford took stronger and earlier action to manage the number of deaths, though not as well as Sturgeon in Scotland.

In addition you could add:

- different rules for young children who were least at risk from a much earlier stage.

On the flips side you would argue:

- More open last summer in England which gave a timely boost to their economy
- More open outside earlier this year in England which is safer than inside

But I'd also argue:

- Scotland got the best approach in terms of recognising children and outside was safest the earliest

Each nation within the UK fecked up in the first wave, perhaps NI the least, but England or Northern Ireland fecked up the autumn/winter period the most even if they still all got things wrong.

Boris now acting more cautious than needs be so, in combination with successful vaccine roll-out, people forget how needlessly risky his government's actions were during autumn/winter when most was known about the virus.

At this time people haven't recognised downside of Drakeford's cautious approach, but that may hit during recovery if ours is slower/more difficult than in England's. It's likely that Labour will point more to Brexit and Tories more to management of Labour to confuse things.

[the other bob wilson]

What did Johnson get wrong that Drakeford didn't?

Refusing to lockdown in the autumn, refusing to lockdown over Christmas, going on holiday during February 2020, not attending the first five Cobra meetings on Covid, ignoring scientific advice on shaking hands, attending rugby internationals at packed stadiums, messing up school returns, messing up track and trace, messing up exam results, messing up free meals for children ........
give me time, you caught me on the hop with that question.

[City123]

Interesting point on BBC Wales last night that covid ended up really damaging Plaid, they had planned for a presidential style election campaign pitting Price against an unknown Drakeford but the immense media exposure Drakeford had doing daily press conferences helped labour massively. Also, because of the covid restrictions they lost months of potential canvassing and door knocking which is key to them as they don’t have the financial donors that labour and Tories do.

Plaid need 3-4 regional seats today to limit the damage but I can’t see more than 3 to be honest

Richard wyn Jones was ranting that Plaid aren't professional enough and he's right, they don't use data in the manner the other parties do, they allow petty squabbles to escalate and play favourites with candidates. Helen Mary Jones was a massive liability in a winnable seat in Llanelli but they stood with her for no apparent reason, they also threw the Cardiff North branch under the bus to try and protect Leanne Wood

It wasn't a disastrous night for Plaid but it was very poor and should serve as a wake up call. They've increased the vote share in a lot of places but been abysmal in their target seats. Aberconwy and Llanelli in particular were shocking whilst the swing in Rhondda was dreadful

[WJ99mobile]

Richard wyn Jones was ranting that Plaid aren't professional enough and he's right, they don't use data in the manner the other parties do, they allow petty squabbles to escalate and play favourites with candidates. Helen Mary Jones was a massive liability in a winnable seat in Llanelli but they stood with her for no apparent reason, they also threw the Cardiff North branch under the bus to try and protect Leanne Wood

It wasn't a disastrous night for Plaid but it was very poor and should serve as a wake up call. They've increased the vote share in a lot of places but been abysmal in their target seats. Aberconwy and Llanelli in particular were shocking whilst the swing in Rhondda was dreadful

You talk about individuals but I would suggest that the vast, vast majority of people look at the overall party and leader only.

Hefin David won Caerphilly for Labour. I don’t know a single person that knows what he’s for or against, or what he’s done

[City123]

You talk about individuals but I would suggest that the vast, vast majority of people look at the overall party and leader only.

Hefin David won Caerphilly for Labour. I don’t know a single person that knows what he’s for or against, or what he’s done

The two I mentioned are known, Llanelli is a marginal, HMJ has held it before and has had a number of controversies that have received national attention, her vote share went down 8%. Leanne Wood also has a high profile.

I agree with you in general though, it was more of a point on Plaid's shoddy management