Senedd election prediction

[Rjk]

Montgomeryshire: Tory hold with increase in vote share of +6.3.

Tories and Reform vote share: 50.3% (of which 48.1% is Tory).
Plaid, Lib Dem and Labour vote share: 49%.

I know it doesn't work like that but here we go again!

Plaid and Labour both increased their vote share, and I don't think anyone was expecting Montgomeryshire to change hands.