Senedd election prediction

[DubaiDai]

2 questions:

1. Do you believe everyone who wants independence would only vote Plaid?

2. Do you believe everyone who votes Plaid wants independence?

Exactly. Don’t mind admitting to voting Plaid Cymru although would vote against independence.
Would like to see Wales governed by someone other than labour (not going to happen I know) as after 22 years their achievements could be listed on a fag packet

[Trigger]

Labour will keep power.

Not much point in anyone else bothering in Wales.

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

Labour will keep power.

Not much point in anyone else bothering in Wales.

Labour is going to lose overall power and form a coalition with plaid cymru

The conservatives will pick up 5 seats at least

Labour need to boot drakeford out and shape up pronto

[xsnaggle]

Can I predict firstly that labour will not lose overall power because they don't have it to lose.........
and also predict that by the end of this thread 50% ish of the posts will have been by sludge.

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

Can I predict firstly that labour will not lose overall power because they don't have it to lose.........
and also predict that by the end of this thread 50% ish of the posts will have been by sludge.

well they have a majority in the Welsh assembly so what power it has , is theirs I would conclude

[Former Labour leader]

My prediction
Labour back a bit
Tories making gains(2016 UKIP vote goes to them)
Plaid treading water
26 L
18 T
14 P
2 Libs/Abolish

Labour will gain Rhondda and hold Llanelli. May lose Vale and Bridgend to Tories.

On a broader point, Plaid may be making loads of noise but are not breaking through to the broader electorate and are being squeezed by both Lab and Tory.

[Former Labour leader]

well they have a majority in the Welsh assembly so what power it has , is theirs I would conclude

Not quite right Sludge. As at today Lab have 29 seats but are supported by 2, a Lib and Ind.

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

Not quite right Sludge. As at today Lab have 29 seats but are supported by 2, a Lib and Ind.

Its close enough , its going to be a Labour Welsh government or Labour led coalition

[xsnaggle]

Its close enough , its going to be a Labour Welsh government or Labour led coalition

Close, but no cigar!!!!

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

Although not worrying for everyone. The conservative voters won’t worry at all will they!

Well as long as they don't get enough votes to run the country I couldn't give two fecks

If they increase the amount of people that vote for them they will see it as a victory but as long as Labour get a decent leader they will be always spouting off from the sidelines

Which is what Labour nationally needs to do , get rid of starmer

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

What worries me more is somebody saying that a party need to get rid of their leaders. Doesn’t say much about the party does it?

I don't care , drakeford has had his marching orders so its onwards and upwards

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

Close, but no cigar!!!!

if Labour govern directly or with a coalition I don't care

Nationally Labour should team up with the liberals so it makes sense to me

[xsnaggle]

if Labour govern directly or with a coalition I don't care

Nationally Labour should team up with the liberals so it makes sense to me

Two things. firstly you were incorrect, and secondly it will be difficult for labour to team up with the liberals in Wales if they manage to lose their one and only seat.

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

I voted about an hour or so ago and I had a chat with one of the tellers whom I know. She has been working in my local polling station for a number of years and said she has never seen it so busy, even in General Elections.
She said the have had a queue all day albeit only 4 or 5 people but she has never ever seen a queue before and also that they normally use 1 ballot box and as we spoke they were currently on their third for the day.
I know there is extra paper because of the Police commissioner vote but even so there seems to be more people than usual bothering to cast their votes.

That cannot be a bad thing, but if it is mirrored across Wales who will benefit? That's the question?

I would just add that there was a small queue when I voted when I went in and when I came out and that was close to 8 PM, most unusual.

poor weather and a low turnout usually favours the conservatives but maybe the recent bounce in support for the tories has seen them come out

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

Two things. firstly you were incorrect, and secondly it will be difficult for labour to team up with the liberals in Wales if they manage to lose their one and only seat.

Two things , Labour if they win the majority of seats either rule outright or with a coalition . That's fine by me .

Nationally is UK wide , as in general elections

Even so the liberals seem a bust flush so I think a left of centre party to keep out the tories which the majority of the electorate want is the future

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

2 questions:

1. Do you believe everyone who wants independence would only vote Plaid?

2. Do you believe everyone who votes Plaid wants independence?

generally

generally

Adam Price has been spouting on the TV for weeks asking people to vote plaid

You and your lot have their chance

If plaids vote increases then great , if they gain seats fantastic

If Plaid Cymru , the only true independence party at this election don't do really well then either all these polls about increasing support for independence are cobblers or the pro independence lot can't be bothered

The way to change things is to vote

If people can't be arsed to vote for an independence party in 2021 , when are they going to bother ?

[Eric the Half a Bee]

generally

generally

[Bruce Parry]

I’m actually surprised by the amount of people I know that have voted Plaid, including a number of lifetime Labour voters. Might be too early to have an impact this election though. Regardless of where you stand, a shake up can only benefit Welsh Politics.

My local place was saying they’ve had a a good turnout with youngsters too. I had to queue around 40 minutes.

[Eric the Half a Bee]

I’m actually surprised by the amount of people I know that have voted Plaid, including a number of lifetime Labour voters. Might be too early to have an impact this election though. Regardless of where you stand, a shake up can only benefit Welsh Politics.

My local place was saying they’ve had a a good turnout with youngsters too. I had to queue around 40 minutes.

Plaid is the obvious choice for any left leaning voter disillusioned with Labour, that's the message I'm getting from friends of mine.

I know lots of people who still vote Labour but want independence, but Sludge won't have that.

[Hilts]

Plaid is the obvious choice for any left leaning voter disillusioned with Labour, that's the message I'm getting from friends of mine.

I know lots of people who still vote Labour but want independence, but Sludge won't have that.

I have been staunch pro uk and strongly against independence.

But with this useless far right govt ive done a complete u turn.

First time Ive voted in the Senedd and I did so to do my bit to make sure a Tory wasnt voted in. I didnt vote for my preferred party but the party most likely to beat a Tory and it wasnt Plaid.

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

Plaid is the obvious choice for any left leaning voter disillusioned with Labour, that's the message I'm getting from friends of mine.

I know lots of people who still vote Labour but want independence, but Sludge won't have that.

We will see tomorrow if left leaning Labour voters have deserted Labour for plaid

Or the Labour vote has gone to the tories

If people want independence then why are they voting Labour and not plaid ?

They sound like crackpots

[Eric the Half a Bee]

We will see tomorrow if left leaning Labour voters have deserted Labour for plaid

Or the Labour vote has gone to the tories

If people want independence then why are they voting Labour and not plaid ?

They sound like crackpots

Is it not because independence isn't an issue in this election and it is possible to support independence and vote for someone other than Plaid?

I also think it's too simplistic to suggest that Labour will only lose votes to the Tories (and hence Plaid don't pick up or lose voters accordingly).

[City123]

Is it not because independence isn't an issue in this election and it is possible to support independence and vote for someone other than Plaid?

I also think it's too simplistic to suggest that Labour will only lose votes to the Tories (and hence Plaid don't pick up or lose voters accordingly).

I think the next election might be the "independence election", especially if Scotland goes. The surge has come too late for it to really impact this one, especially considering the current conditions

[Eric the Half a Bee]

I think the next election might be the "independence election", especially if Scotland goes. The surge has come too late for it to really impact this one, especially considering the current conditions

Yes, agreed. Covid is the real issue for this election. There is also the perception by some that Plaid = nationalism, yet independence doesn't = nationalism and that it's entirely possible to be interested in independence without being a nationalist.

[Former Labour leader]

Yes, agreed. Covid is the real issue for this election. There is also the perception by some that Plaid = nationalism, yet independence doesn't = nationalism and that it's entirely possible to be interested in independence without being a nationalist.

If Labour's vote holds up it will be due to Mark Drakeford and his handling of covid. If Tories make gains, as I expect them too, it will be due to Boris Johnson's vaccine bounce and Brexit. Plaid will be squeezed by these two parties and will have a disappointing election. Independence for Wales is a very long way off.