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Thread: Senedd election prediction

  1. #51

    Re: Senedd election prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by SLUDGE FACTORY View Post
    We will see tomorrow if left leaning Labour voters have deserted Labour for plaid

    Or the Labour vote has gone to the tories

    If people want independence then why are they voting Labour and not plaid ?

    They sound like crackpots
    probably wanking down Lambeth

  2. #52

    Re: Senedd election prediction

    If I had to guess which party a story like this is good news for, I'd probably say Plaid, but who knows really?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-56766948

  3. #53

    Re: Senedd election prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by Wozza16 View Post
    There seems to be a large amount of labour voters turning to plaid, at least on the regional list. I can see plaid improving on their seats last time and it’s a win win for them.

    As long as Plaid maintain or improve seats and number of votes which does look likely, if the Tories do well and weaken Labours stance considerably on last time then Plaids negotiation power increases with every seat that labour loses.

    In regards to the independence debate a lot of Labour supporters are at least considering it now and an 825% increase in paying YesCymru members (in less than 12 months) show there is an increased appetite. The seats to watch are the pro-Indy labour candidates, if they win their seats in addition to Plaid winning seats they could make up a solid portion of the Senedd.
    how many members makes up this yes cymru group ?

  4. #54

    Re: Senedd election prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by kendoddsdadsdogsdead View Post
    probably wanking down Lambeth
    There's a load of Kents down the BBC want sorting out

  5. #55

    Re: Senedd election prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by DubaiDai View Post
    Exactly. Don’t mind admitting to voting Plaid Cymru although would vote against independence.
    Would like to see Wales governed by someone other than labour (not going to happen I know) as after 22 years their achievements could be listed on a fag packet
    in Wales social care costs 100 per week

    in England its 700 per week

  6. #56

    Re: Senedd election prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by SLUDGE FACTORY View Post
    how many members makes up this yes cymru group ?
    About 19,000.

    Welsh Labour was 25,000 in 2018, this would almost certainly dropped since then. YesCymru are closing in fast, considering it was only set up 6 years ago and was 2,000 this time last year. Boris is seeing to that

  7. #57

    Re: Senedd election prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric the Half a Bee View Post
    Yes, agreed. Covid is the real issue for this election. There is also the perception by some that Plaid = nationalism, yet independence doesn't = nationalism and that it's entirely possible to be interested in independence without being a nationalist.
    this is all very romantic but when those pro independence are put under scrutiny regarding how Wales is going to generate the income to be independent please don't say wind farms or Europe as the first is comedy gold and loads of us Taffs voted to leave the EU

  8. #58

    Re: Senedd election prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by Wozza16 View Post
    About 19,000.

    Welsh Labour was 25,000 in 2018, this would almost certainly dropped since then. YesCymru are closing in fast, considering it was only set up 6 years ago and was 2,000 this time last year. Boris is seeing to that
    but thats still chicken feed

    Either loads of people start voting plaid or another independence party is set up and people vote for that 🤔

  9. #59

    Re: Senedd election prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by Wozza16 View Post
    I think it’ll end up around

    Labour - 25
    Plaid - 16
    Tory - 14
    Lib Dem - 1
    Abolish - 2
    Greens - 2

    Chuck down your predictions, winner gets bragging rights for 5 years

    Come on Plaid!
    Too much welshness already....trying to give all cardiff suburbs Welsh names ffs....ridiculous. No one is going to use them

  10. #60

    Re: Senedd election prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by SLUDGE FACTORY View Post
    in Wales social care costs 100 per week

    in England its 700 per week
    I guess you get what you pay for, it’s a shocking state of affairs here. Only encountered it once, absolute shambles

  11. #61

    Re: Senedd election prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by SLUDGE FACTORY View Post
    but thats still chicken feed

    Either loads of people start voting plaid or another independence party is set up and people vote for that ��
    It's hardly chicken feed when it's only 6,000 (probably even less) off the membership of a party who have been engrained in Wales for decades.

    I'm sure the number of voters for Plaid, Greens, Propel and Gwlad will equal a solid amount of the electorate.

    Also add in the three Welsh Labour pro independence candidates to that total.

  12. #62

    Re: Senedd election prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by SLUDGE FACTORY View Post
    this is all very romantic but when those pro independence are put under scrutiny regarding how Wales is going to generate the income to be independent please don't say wind farms or Europe as the first is comedy gold and loads of us Taffs voted to leave the EU
    Reading your posts sounds like you are the romantic one.

    I've voted Labour previously but always wanted independence. Labour aren't anywhere near left wing enough to vote for so why would you continue to flog a dead horse?

  13. #63

    Re: Senedd election prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric the Half a Bee View Post
    Plaid is the obvious choice for any left leaning voter disillusioned with Labour, that's the message I'm getting from friends of mine.

    I know lots of people who still vote Labour but want independence, but Sludge won't have that.
    I have been staunch pro uk and strongly against independence.

    But with this useless far right govt ive done a complete u turn.

    First time Ive voted in the Senedd and I did so to do my bit to make sure a Tory wasnt voted in. I didnt vote for my preferred party but the party most likely to beat a Tory and it wasnt Plaid.

  14. #64

    Re: Senedd election prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by goats View Post
    I guess you get what you pay for, it’s a shocking state of affairs here. Only encountered it once, absolute shambles
    No its shit in England too

  15. #65

    Re: Senedd election prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by Harry Paget Flashman View Post
    Reading your posts sounds like you are the romantic one.

    I've voted Labour previously but always wanted independence. Labour aren't anywhere near left wing enough to vote for so why would you continue to flog a dead horse?
    I want a new democratic left of centre party, its the only way of keeping out the tories

    If you want independence but vote Labour at least you are not wasting your time on plaid so everyone is a winner

  16. #66

    Re: Senedd election prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by SLUDGE FACTORY View Post
    I want a new democratic left of centre party, its the only way of keeping out the tories

    If you want independence but vote Labour at least you are not wasting your time on plaid so everyone is a winner
    You have one currently in Wales but don't like Drakeford because he's not seen as a strong leader. He's stepping down soon anyway.

    Labour's official position towards union (and the Lib Dems and the Greens) is shifting because of public opinion. This wouldn't happen if there wasn't a growing indy-curious position.

    Tories unofficial position is shifting in opposite direction but more they act to act devolution the more people become indy-curious, which subsequently scares voters in England into voting Tory which suits them fine.

    If you want to see the UK survive you (one) should vote Labour, Lib Dems or Green; if you (one) wants to see independence should vote SNP or Plaid; and if you (one) wants to see UK become England then should vote Tories, Abolish or UKIP.

  17. #67

    Re: Senedd election prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by surge View Post
    You have one currently in Wales but don't like Drakeford because he's not seen as a strong leader. He's stepping down soon anyway.

    Labour's official position towards union (and the Lib Dems and the Greens) is shifting because of public opinion. This wouldn't happen if there wasn't a growing indy-curious position.

    Tories unofficial position is shifting in opposite direction but more they act to act devolution the more people become indy-curious, which subsequently scares voters in England into voting Tory which suits them fine.

    If you want to see the UK survive you (one) should vote Labour, Lib Dems or Green; if you (one) wants to see independence should vote SNP or Plaid; and if you (one) wants to see UK become England then should vote Tories, Abolish or UKIP.
    clearly voting plaid is what people should do if they want independence

    But less people in Wales vote plaid than tory

    Is it just me ? Feck brexit , feck covid , if I was wanting independence I would vote plaid

    But I don't and nor does most of Wales

    They have had their chance , if they do well in the polls fair play to them but I can't see an independent Wales come 10pm tonight

  18. #68

    Re: Senedd election prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by SLUDGE FACTORY View Post
    this is all very romantic but when those pro independence are put under scrutiny regarding how Wales is going to generate the income to be independent please don't say wind farms or Europe as the first is comedy gold and loads of us Taffs voted to leave the EU
    That's got absolutely nothing to do with my comment.

    I'll repeat that there are Labour voters who are interested in independence. I joined the party as a member when Corbyn got elected as leader. I have since rescinded my membership as a result of the party's shift away from socialism and its increasingly pro Brexit stance.

    I know of party members and Labour supporters up here who have left to vote Plaid based solely on Plaid being more socialist than Labour, that being the biggest issue. I know of friends who have done the same thing. I know of Labour party members and voters who want independence but don't regard themselves as nationalists. I'm sure I've read about Labour MPs or AMs supporting Welsh Independence, while last year a YouGov poll suggested over half of Labour voters in the 2019 general election support independence.

    Like I said, this election isn't about independence. UKIP wanted independence from the EU but they never polled well in a general election as there were always other issues that people voted on. If you accept that UKIP's polling in elections was not representative of the UK's feelings towards Brexit, you have to acknowledge the same about Plaid's polling not being representative of Wales's feelings towards independence. Now, I'm not for a second suggesting that Wales is as interested in independence as the UK was about Brexit, I'll make that very clear. But claiming that Plaid's vote is representative of how Wales feels about independence is utter horseshit. We simply don't know the real levels of interest, other than they have grown over the last few years if opinion polls are to be believed, particularly with the under 50s.

  19. #69

    Re: Senedd election prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by SLUDGE FACTORY View Post
    clearly voting plaid is what people should do if they want independence

    But less people in Wales vote plaid than tory

    Is it just me ? Feck brexit , feck covid , if I was wanting independence I would vote plaid

    But I don't and nor does most of Wales

    They have had their chance , if they do well in the polls fair play to them but I can't see an independent Wales come 10pm tonight
    But people voting Labour and all other parties in Wales are also becoming indy-curious.

    We have a Westminster election before a Senedd one now and most likely result is a further Tory majority which seeks to attack devolution and attack Union - if that happens do you really think indy-curious people voting Labour/Lib Dem/Greens etc. this time will side with them again? They'll go to the party promising referendum on independence.

  20. #70

    Re: Senedd election prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by surge View Post
    You have one currently in Wales but don't like Drakeford because he's not seen as a strong leader. He's stepping down soon anyway.

    Labour's official position towards union (and the Lib Dems and the Greens) is shifting because of public opinion. This wouldn't happen if there wasn't a growing indy-curious position.

    Tories unofficial position is shifting in opposite direction but more they act to act devolution the more people become indy-curious, which subsequently scares voters in England into voting Tory which suits them fine.

    If you want to see the UK survive you (one) should vote Labour, Lib Dems or Green; if you (one) wants to see independence should vote SNP or Plaid; and if you (one) wants to see UK become England then should vote Tories, Abolish or UKIP.
    It's strange with Drakeford. he seems very unpopular on here, but so much that I've heard and read about the election has said that he's been front and centre of Labour's campaign because he's seen as a "safe pair of hands".

  21. #71

    Re: Senedd election prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by the other bob wilson View Post
    It's strange with Drakeford. he seems very unpopular on here, but so much that I've heard and read about the election has said that he's been front and centre of Labour's campaign because he's seen as a "safe pair of hands".
    He's a cautious, unsexy nerd. We live in a time (have we always?) where a strong leader is usually preferred but perhaps covid is the one occasion where caution and nerdish behaviour is admired.

  22. #72

    Re: Senedd election prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by the other bob wilson View Post
    It's strange with Drakeford. he seems very unpopular on here, but so much that I've heard and read about the election has said that he's been front and centre of Labour's campaign because he's seen as a "safe pair of hands".
    He's unpopular as he's the bearer of bad news.

    He's the one to shut down pubs, open later than England, close earlier than England.

    As for Labour there's somethings that they have done with transport I whole heartedly agree with (apart from the M4) but that's about it.

  23. #73

    Re: Senedd election prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by WJ99mobile View Post
    He's unpopular as he's the bearer of bad news.

    PLUS THE BARSTEWARD TAXED OUR BOOZE
    He's the one to shut down pubs, open later than England, close earlier than England.

    As for Labour there's somethings that they have done with transport I whole heartedly agree with (apart from the M4) but that's about it.

    It should be our choice if we wanna drink, not some teetotal t wat down the bay.

  24. #74

    Re: Senedd election prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by WJ99mobile View Post
    He's unpopular as he's the bearer of bad news.

    He's the one to shut down pubs, open later than England, close earlier than England.

    As for Labour there's somethings that they have done with transport I whole heartedly agree with (apart from the M4) but that's about it.
    But apart from last summer, his bad news has been closer to what's been needed throughout the pandemic. Boris has been acting in a cautious manner since 2nd week of January 2021 because he wants to escape comments about showing too much risk during last winter.

  25. #75

    Re: Senedd election prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric the Half a Bee View Post
    That's got absolutely nothing to do with my comment.

    I'll repeat that there are Labour voters who are interested in independence. I joined the party as a member when Corbyn got elected as leader. I have since rescinded my membership as a result of the party's shift away from socialism and its increasingly pro Brexit stance.

    I know of party members and Labour supporters up here who have left to vote Plaid based solely on Plaid being more socialist than Labour, that being the biggest issue. I know of friends who have done the same thing. I know of Labour party members and voters who want independence but don't regard themselves as nationalists. I'm sure I've read about Labour MPs or AMs supporting Welsh Independence, while last year a YouGov poll suggested over half of Labour voters in the 2019 general election support independence.

    Like I said, this election isn't about independence. UKIP wanted independence from the EU but they never polled well in a general election as there were always other issues that people voted on. If you accept that UKIP's polling in elections was not representative of the UK's feelings towards Brexit, you have to acknowledge the same about Plaid's polling not being representative of Wales's feelings towards independence. Now, I'm not for a second suggesting that Wales is as interested in independence as the UK was about Brexit, I'll make that very clear. But claiming that Plaid's vote is representative of how Wales feels about independence is utter horseshit. We simply don't know the real levels of interest, other than they have grown over the last few years if opinion polls are to be believed, particularly with the under 50s.
    Don't bother, Sludge clearly hates Plaid and won't be persuaded

    Its a shame because based on Sludge's posts Plaid are probably the closest party to him ideologically. Labour have moved right since 2019 and seem to be using the Hartlepool result to justify continuing to do so

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