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Thread: My predictions for the new season

  1. #26

    Re: My predictions for the new season

    Quote Originally Posted by jon1959 View Post
    Transfer fees and wages will be depressed across all leagues - a good thing. We don't know yet what the new football economy will look like - but comparisons with previous seasons (even last summer under Covid) will be apples and pears. Income and player costs down, even if most other costs are unchanged.

    There will be a lot more players available out of contract as clubs reduce bloated squad sizes. A buyers market with a bigger pool of available talent at a lower cost, and less likelihood of generating big fees from sales. Moore and Morrison (not Murphy) the most saleable - but even then the benchmarks from previous windows may not apply.

    If Cardiff is in Covid trouble because of reduced revenues (with parachute payments last season and Tan's backing) how much worse will it be for two thirds of other Championship clubs? Relegated clubs with parachute payments may find it harder than normal to reduce their costs through player sales.

    We have got the most talented batch of youth players in a decade coming through the academy - and it seems a willingness to bring them into the first team.

    Overall I don't see why we should be pessimistic about the summer and next season. I will be disappointed if Moore is sold (don't think Morrison will go and doubt there will be takers for Murphy willing to pay a significant fee), but with youth players coming through, out of contract and loan players leaving, and new loans and free transfers joining, I expect us to be in the play off fight again.

    One thing is sure, the Mick McCarthy honeymoon is now over and he can now reshape the team the way he wants. Judge him then.
    No chance .
    We will continue to be dire .
    Crowds will refuse to come back into the stadium to watch hoofball.

  2. #27

    Re: My predictions for the new season

    Firstly, surely the majority of the parachute payments are paid towards the end of each subsequent season after relegation. That means that the second yearly payment that we are due (over £30m) is around now and this money will be available to carry us through into next season. Therefore our next years budget will not be as dire as people are predicting. Secondly, why would anyone in their right mind be as pessimistic as the OP. From what has been said there is no indication that players like Moore or Morrison want to or will be sold. There is also no indication that Tan is going to stop funding the club or transfers altogether either. Budgets will be lower all around the leagues and the fact that we have some good young players coming through will obviously help. Players will leave but only if deemed surplus to requirements and if Moore is sold then I am confident that the money will be used to bring in replacements. PS. The negativity and pessimism on this board is truly staggering at times.

  3. #28

    Re: My predictions for the new season

    Quote Originally Posted by dml1954 View Post
    Firstly, surely the majority of the parachute payments are paid towards the end of each subsequent season after relegation. That means that the second yearly payment that we are due (over £30m) is around now and this money will be available to carry us through into next season. Therefore our next years budget will not be as dire as people are predicting. Secondly, why would anyone in their right mind be as pessimistic as the OP. From what has been said there is no indication that players like Moore or Morrison want to or will be sold. There is also no indication that Tan is going to stop funding the club or transfers altogether either. Budgets will be lower all around the leagues and the fact that we have some good young players coming through will obviously help. Players will leave but only if deemed surplus to requirements and if Moore is sold then I am confident that the money will be used to bring in replacements. PS. The negativity and pessimism on this board is truly staggering at times.
    Why would you assume that the parachute payments are paid at the end of the year?
    I've never seen anything to suggest that was the case.
    In any case we will receive about 35 million less next season than we will this season, so we will need to budget accordingly.

  4. #29

    Re: My predictions for the new season

    If we got rid of those players suggested by the OP, then we'd be relegated. If we had all the kids playing we'd get hammered every week.

    But we will have Tomlin, and in he's not injured, and if he's fit(!), and if he plays superbly in every game(!), someone might buy him next January. Oh look....a Flying Pig.

  5. #30

    Re: My predictions for the new season

    Quote Originally Posted by dml1954 View Post
    Firstly, surely the majority of the parachute payments are paid towards the end of each subsequent season after relegation. That means that the second yearly payment that we are due (over £30m) is around now and this money will be available to carry us through into next season. Therefore our next years budget will not be as dire as people are predicting. Secondly, why would anyone in their right mind be as pessimistic as the OP. From what has been said there is no indication that players like Moore or Morrison want to or will be sold. There is also no indication that Tan is going to stop funding the club or transfers altogether either. Budgets will be lower all around the leagues and the fact that we have some good young players coming through will obviously help. Players will leave but only if deemed surplus to requirements and if Moore is sold then I am confident that the money will be used to bring in replacements. PS. The negativity and pessimism on this board is truly staggering at times.
    Feel free to bookmark my comments, Tan paid a whack of money into the club last month and doesn't want to continue to bankroll City. Morrison is on a very high wage and we could get a fee for a player who's value will lessen in the next few years due to his age. Nelson was a good buy, no reason why we couldn't get a decent replacement in cheaply. Moore would be a big loss but I wouldn't want to stand in his way if he fancied playing at a higher level on a higher wage.

  6. #31
    International jon1959's Avatar
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    Re: My predictions for the new season

    Quote Originally Posted by Jimmy the Jock View Post
    No chance .
    We will continue to be dire .
    Crowds will refuse to come back into the stadium to watch hoofball.
    Fair point. The team's shit. The club's shit. The manager's shit. Life's shit.

  7. #32

    Re: My predictions for the new season

    Quote Originally Posted by jon1959 View Post
    Fair point. The team's shit. The club's shit. The manager's shit. Life's shit.
    I'll be there next year in person , watching the shite ,bring it forth .

    Oh and I think we will grab a play off spot

  8. #33

    Re: My predictions for the new season

    Quote Originally Posted by tomcat View Post
    Feel free to bookmark my comments, Tan paid a whack of money into the club last month and doesn't want to continue to bankroll City. Morrison is on a very high wage and we could get a fee for a player who's value will lessen in the next few years due to his age. Nelson was a good buy, no reason why we couldn't get a decent replacement in cheaply. Moore would be a big loss but I wouldn't want to stand in his way if he fancied playing at a higher level on a higher wage.
    So basically, sell most of the first team, put all the youngsters in and accept the inevitable fate of ending up in League One (or two after). Excellent business sense, ending up with a club worth bog all instead of the £150m plus he has put in ! Tan has been putting a ‘whack of money’ in ever since he took over and there is absolutely no evidence that he is not going to continue to back the club now. He has recently taken on an experienced manager on a presumably high salary and stated his desire to get back into the Premier League sooner rather than later.

  9. #34

    Re: My predictions for the new season

    Quote Originally Posted by Rjk View Post
    Why would you assume that the parachute payments are paid at the end of the year?
    I've never seen anything to suggest that was the case.
    In any case we will receive about 35 million less next season than we will this season, so we will need to budget accordingly.
    At the end of the season we were relegated from the Premier League, we would still have been in receipt of that seasons TV and rights money which was not finally calculated until the League finished and our position was known. The parachute payments were for the following two seasons, the second one of which has just ended. Therefore it is entirely likely that the parachute payments are made at the end of each year. Also the parachute payments are 55% for the first year and 45% for the second, so actually drop by about £6m, not £35m. TV money to all clubs is mainly paid out at the season end, with possibly interim payments around the New Year.

  10. #35
    International jon1959's Avatar
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    Re: My predictions for the new season

    Quote Originally Posted by dml1954 View Post
    At the end of the season we were relegated from the Premier League, we would still have been in receipt of that seasons TV and rights money which was not finally calculated until the League finished and our position was known. The parachute payments were for the following two seasons, the second one of which has just ended. Therefore it is entirely likely that the parachute payments are made at the end of each year. Also the parachute payments are 55% for the first year and 45% for the second, so actually drop by about £6m, not £35m. TV money to all clubs is mainly paid out at the season end, with possibly interim payments around the New Year.
    Broadcasting rights money to EPL clubs is not held back until the end of the season when the final apportionment (based on live TV coverage decisions) is known - is it?

    I thought it was paid in instalments? With both parachute and solidarity payments to EFL clubs paid in a similar way. The intention is to cushion the financial impact of relegation and that hits from the start of the season, not the end.

    In May last year the EPL clubs were in the middle of a massive argument with Sky and BT about refunding a % of the TV money already paid out by the broadcasters - and my impression was that they didn't send the EPL/clubs a cheque at the end of the season and then ask for some of it back a week later.

    Football was suspended in early March 2020, and by then the EPL clubs already had a major part of the broadcasting money! Surely the same applies to knock-on payments further down the football pyramid?

  11. #36

    Re: My predictions for the new season

    Quote Originally Posted by dml1954 View Post
    At the end of the season we were relegated from the Premier League, we would still have been in receipt of that seasons TV and rights money which was not finally calculated until the League finished and our position was known. The parachute payments were for the following two seasons, the second one of which has just ended. Therefore it is entirely likely that the parachute payments are made at the end of each year. Also the parachute payments are 55% for the first year and 45% for the second, so actually drop by about £6m, not £35m. TV money to all clubs is mainly paid out at the season end, with possibly interim payments around the New Year.
    Pretty sure payments are staggered throughout the season, this would mean that you're correct in that there may be some left to pay for this year. However, this would no doubt be catered for in this years budget so will have no bearing on next year when the income from the Premier League will drop from £35m to the £4.5m solidarity payment.

    Given our wage bill has been reported as around £22m it's likely that it's going to need more than just losing our out of contract players to keep us going. Does anyone know the max amount an owner is allowed to put into a club per year under FFP?

  12. #37

    Re: My predictions for the new season

    Quote Originally Posted by Punxsutawney Phil View Post
    Pretty sure payments are staggered throughout the season, this would mean that you're correct in that there may be some left to pay for this year. However, this would no doubt be catered for in this years budget so will have no bearing on next year when the income from the Premier League will drop from £35m to the £4.5m solidarity payment.

    Given our wage bill has been reported as around £22m it's likely that it's going to need more than just losing our out of contract players to keep us going. Does anyone know the max amount an owner is allowed to put into a club per year under FFP?
    isn't it 80million over a 3 year period

  13. #38

    Re: My predictions for the new season

    Just lifted the following from Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Premie...0the%20Premier

    Parachute payments are unique to the English game and currently see clubs relegated from the Premier League receive a percentage of the equally shared element of broadcasting rights each Premier League club receives. This percentage drops progressively over a three year period – 55% in the first year, 45% in year two and, if the club was in the Premier League for more than one season before relegation, 20% in the third year.
    Same article says we'd have had £41.6m last year, £34.9 this so £80m is close but we get nothing next year as we were only in the league for season.

  14. #39

    Re: My predictions for the new season

    Quote Originally Posted by Rjk View Post
    isn't it 80million over a 3 year period
    Just realised you probably mean how much can be invested!

  15. #40

    Re: My predictions for the new season

    trump will continue his election lies, boris johnson will lie his azz off and you lot will believe it ..again.
    there will be no peace in the middle east.

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