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Thread: Hammering for Conservatives in Chesham and Amersham.

  1. #1

    Hammering for Conservatives in Chesham and Amersham.

    This result is as significant as the one in Hartlepool in its way, but I bet it doesn't get as much media coverage as that one did. The second most noticeable thing about the outcome is the complete collapse of the Labour vote as voters switched to the Lib Dems to beat the tory. This highlights the pointlessness of Labour's pledge to fight in every seat at a General Election because, for me, the thing that is most clear from this result is that an anti Conservative alliance is the way to go where parties agree to stand aside to let the one with the best chance of beating the tory take them on.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-englan...herts-57472032

  2. #2

    Re: Hammering for Conservatives in Chesham and Amersham.

    It was a crushing defeat for the Tories but I note also Labour polled less than a tenth of their vote in the 2020 election in that constituency. I doubt whether the LIberals would agree with your view about an anti Tory alliance although it could make sense in some areas but it won't happen.

  3. #3

    Re: Hammering for Conservatives in Chesham and Amersham.

    Quote Originally Posted by Vindec View Post
    It was a crushing defeat for the Tories but I note also Labour polled less than a tenth of their vote in the 2020 election in that constituency. I doubt whether the LIberals would agree with your view about an anti Tory alliance although it could make sense in some areas but it won't happen.
    From memory, Labour were polling at 15,000 in that constituency in 2015, so you'd think that the large majority of them have deserted the party for the Lib Dems. It was an example of tactical voting by people who would not class themselves as Conservatives and it has to be the way to go for, say, Labour supporters in Cornwall and Lib Dems voters who live in most major cities in this country.

    I see you seem to want to brush what happened to the Conservatives under the carpet, but there definitely appears to be something going on in some areas in southern England that have traditionally been strongly Tory - there was quite a bit of evidence of this last month when nearly all of the focus was on the woes of the Labour party.

  4. #4

    Re: Hammering for Conservatives in Chesham and Amersham.

    Great result , I'm guessing the the HS2 was /is a big issue there the former Tory MP who past away was well against it , think she had a lot of loyalty as she was a voice for them , Labour vote was poor , Liberals have done well ,we need more and better opposition .

    I didn't HS2 was backed by the Blair/Brown Labour government ,perhaps that played out in this by election ??

  5. #5

    Re: Hammering for Conservatives in Chesham and Amersham.

    Only way forward is a new centre left opposition to the tories , in England the Labour Party are finished , the liberals are finished full stop .

  6. #6

    Re: Hammering for Conservatives in Chesham and Amersham.

    Quote Originally Posted by SLUDGE FACTORY View Post
    Only way forward is a new centre left opposition to the tories , in England the Labour Party are finished , the liberals are finished full stop .
    Is the only way forward .

    I think you should form it , lead it from the front, I and millions of others would vote for you.

    Play Paranoid as the party's theme tune before each of your yearly addresses to the nation , Carol Vorderman could be your number two

  7. #7

    Re: Hammering for Conservatives in Chesham and Amersham.

    Quote Originally Posted by life on mars View Post
    Is the only way forward .

    I think you should form it , lead it from the front, I and millions of others would vote for you.

    Play Paranoid as the party's theme tune before each of your yearly addresses to the nation , Carol Vorderman could be your number two
    Shes a dreadful tory

    Shes not invited

  8. #8

    Re: Hammering for Conservatives in Chesham and Amersham.

    Quote Originally Posted by SLUDGE FACTORY View Post
    Shes a dreadful tory

    Shes not invited
    She could play a big part , living in Cardiff now close by ? She would front up to Drakeford

  9. #9

    Re: Hammering for Conservatives in Chesham and Amersham.

    Quote Originally Posted by the other bob wilson View Post
    From memory, Labour were polling at 15,000 in that constituency in 2015, so you'd think that the large majority of them have deserted the party for the Lib Dems. It was an example of tactical voting by people who would not class themselves as Conservatives and it has to be the way to go for, say, Labour supporters in Cornwall and Lib Dems voters who live in most major cities in this country.

    I see you seem to want to brush what happened to the Conservatives under the carpet, but there definitely appears to be something going on in some areas in southern England that have traditionally been strongly Tory - there was quite a bit of evidence of this last month when nearly all of the focus was on the woes of the Labour party.
    You say Labour's defeat was an example of tactical voting that reduced the Labour vote. That is your opinion. In fact, passing off that opinion as fact is a fabrication in your own mind and a reflection of your own leftish views. How do my words "a crushing defeat for the Tories" equate to my brushing what happened to the Tories under the carpet?

    You should know that bi elections are completely different to General Elections where local issues seem to come to the fore and the tendency is always to vote against the Party in power. HS2 was the real issue in that constituency. However I doubt whether the level of Tory defeat was expected by the Tories.

    It was a shocking result for the Tories as it was for Labour but your analysis is simply a fabrication of what you think happened. I note the heading of your post indicates it was a hammering for the Conservatives but it was for Labour as well. The next bi election might be an opportunity to gauge the extent of Labour support. If Labour don't win that with a very good candidate they are finished.

  10. #10
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    Re: Hammering for Conservatives in Chesham and Amersham.

    Quote Originally Posted by Vindec View Post
    You say Labour's defeat was an example of tactical voting that reduced the Labour vote. That is your opinion. In fact, passing off that opinion as fact is a fabrication in your own mind and a reflection of your own leftish views. How do my words "a crushing defeat for the Tories" equate to my brushing what happened to the Tories under the carpet?

    You should know that bi elections are completely different to General Elections where local issues seem to come to the fore and the tendency is always to vote against the Party in power. HS2 was the real issue in that constituency. However I doubt whether the level of Tory defeat was expected by the Tories.

    It was a shocking result for the Tories as it was for Labour but your analysis is simply a fabrication of what you think happened. I note the heading of your post indicates it was a hammering for the Conservatives but it was for Labour as well. The next bi election might be an opportunity to gauge the extent of Labour support. If Labour don't win that with a very good candidate they are finished.
    You say if Labour don't win the Batley & Spen by election they are finished. That is your opinion. In fact, passing off that opinion as fact is a fabrication in your own mind and a reflection of your own rightish views.

  11. #11

    Re: Hammering for Conservatives in Chesham and Amersham.

    There's a lot of crumbling walls about .

    And the media has giving it a huge amount of attention .

  12. #12

    Re: Hammering for Conservatives in Chesham and Amersham.

    Quote Originally Posted by Vindec View Post
    You say Labour's defeat was an example of tactical voting that reduced the Labour vote. That is your opinion. In fact, passing off that opinion as fact is a fabrication in your own mind and a reflection of your own leftish views. How do my words "a crushing defeat for the Tories" equate to my brushing what happened to the Tories under the carpet?

    You should know that bi elections are completely different to General Elections where local issues seem to come to the fore and the tendency is always to vote against the Party in power. HS2 was the real issue in that constituency. However I doubt whether the level of Tory defeat was expected by the Tories.

    It was a shocking result for the Tories as it was for Labour but your analysis is simply a fabrication of what you think happened. I note the heading of your post indicates it was a hammering for the Conservatives but it was for Labour as well. The next bi election might be an opportunity to gauge the extent of Labour support. If Labour don't win that with a very good candidate they are finished.
    There’s so much a could say in reply to this, but I can’t be bothered, so I’ll just make a couple of comments. First I gave the thread that title because there’s a thread on this page talking about Labour’s hammering at Hartlepool - I used “hammering” for no other reason than that. Second, if you really think the six hundred or whatever the figure is a true reflection of the size of Labour’s support in the constituency then I believe you are deluding yourself. I know what I would have done as a regular Labour voter if I lived in Chesham and Amersham, I would have put that to one side and voted for the party which stood the best chance of keeping the Tory out - I’m not saying that the Labour support would be huge in that constituency, but, clearly lots of of people chose to do that and the Lib Dem majority was enhanced because of it.

  13. #13

    Re: Hammering for Conservatives in Chesham and Amersham.

    Quote Originally Posted by the other bob wilson View Post
    There’s so much a could say in reply to this, but I can’t be bothered, so I’ll just make a couple of comments. First I gave the thread that title because there’s a thread on this page talking about Labour’s hammering at Hartlepool - I used “hammering” for no other reason than that. Second, if you really think the six hundred or whatever the figure is a true reflection of the size of Labour’s support in the constituency then I believe you are deluding yourself. I know what I would have done as a regular Labour voter if I lived in Chesham and Amersham, I would have put that to one side and voted for the party which stood the best chance of keeping the Tory out - I’m not saying that the Labour support would be huge in that constituency, but, clearly lots of of people chose to do that and the Lib Dem majority was enhanced because of it.
    The Hartlepool bi election springs to mind where the Labour vote fell off a cliff.

    Just because you vote tactically doesn't mean everyone does or will. There are many more points I could make but I can't be bothered either. The fact you have not replied to my response to your contention that I brushed the Tory defeat under the carpet is noted.

    Your analysis of what is happening in Southern England is way off the mark in my opinion. In Cornwall and Devon for example the Liberals always have a strong presence in the farming communities and marginally less so the Tories but every single constituency in the South West voted Tory. It might be different next time around as the fishing communities feel short changed by the Brexit deal. What I can say is that Labour are nowhere in these areas. Tactical voting could work but I can't imagine the Labour Party standing aside as they will receive such few votes it wouldn't make any difference. All seats in the South West will be a straight fight between the Liberals and Tories. Possibly your alliance might work in Southern England but I doubt it.

  14. #14

    Re: Hammering for Conservatives in Chesham and Amersham.

    Quote Originally Posted by Vindec View Post
    The Hartlepool bi election springs to mind where the Labour vote fell off a cliff.

    Just because you vote tactically doesn't mean everyone does or will. There are many more points I could make but I can't be bothered either. The fact you have not replied to my response to your contention that I brushed the Tory defeat under the carpet is noted.

    Your analysis of what is happening in Southern England is way off the mark in my opinion. In Cornwall and Devon for example the Liberals always have a strong presence in the farming communities and marginally less so the Tories but every single constituency in the South West voted Tory. It might be different next time around as the fishing communities feel short changed by the Brexit deal. What I can say is that Labour are nowhere in these areas. Tactical voting could work but I can't imagine the Labour Party standing aside as they will receive such few votes it wouldn't make any difference. All seats in the South West will be a straight fight between the Liberals and Tories. Possibly your alliance might work in Southern England but I doubt it.
    I said you brushed it under the carpet because your posts read like "yes it was a bad result for the Conservatives, but let's get on to the real issue here, the size of the Labour vote".

    The size of the Labour vote in Hartlepool and many other constituencies in the North of England and the Midlands should be a real cause of concern for the party and it really needs to stop giving the impression that fighting a continuing civil war and coming across as talking down to people who have traditionally supported Labour is their preferred way to go. I'm not a great fan of someone like Lisa Nandy, but I can't help thinking that she is right about how attitudes have changed post Referendum in so called red wall seats and that, whatever many on the left may feel about her, Labour need to listen to what she has to say.

    However, Labour is never going to win a seat like Chesham and Amersham and so the reaction to their embarrassing vote on Thursday is less important than what they do and where they go as a result of what happened in Hartlepool.

    If Labour are never going to win Chesham and Amersham, I'd say it's equally true that the Conservatives should never lose it, but, perhaps, such thinking is out of touch now because this article (which I know is from the Guardian, but it is written by someone who knows his stuff and has consistently recognised and virtually predicted Labours' problems in the north and midlands) shows that there are demographic changes taking place in traditionally Conservative parts of England which are beginning to affect the way people vote there;-

    https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...mersham-tories

    You talk of me being "way off the mark" in my opinion about what's happening in Southern England, but I didn't say that, I said, what's happening in some parts of southern England. For example, you don't need to tell me that, apart from places like Plymouth and Exeter, Labour has virtually no chance of winning seats in the south west once you go south of Bristol, but the Lib Dems do and it wasn't too long ago that this part of the country was considered something of a Lib Dem stronghold - that's why I said in my opening post that I think Labour needs to give serious thought as to whether it's worth them fielding candidates in places like Cornwall any more.

    With electoral changes coming which are generally expected to help the Conservatives and the party that had established itself as one of "the big two" in this country having not won an election in four attempts, the majority of eligible voters who do not favour the Conservatives are looking at a situation whereby their anti tory views are never going to be reflected under the present voting system while we have so many non right wing parties all competing for what are virtually the same section of the electorate. That's why I'm increasingly coming around to thinking that some of these parties (especially Labour) are going to have to swallow their pride and stand with the "enemy" against a bigger foe.

    Here's another Guardian article which, probably correctly, argues that a so called progressive alliance will never happen, but what happened on Thursday shows that the Tories are not as impregnable as they may appear and so it is incumbent on those non Conservative parties to provide the most effective opposition possible as a service to the majority who decided in December 2019 that they did not want to be governed by the Conservative party.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...d-middle-class

  15. #15
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    Re: Hammering for Conservatives in Chesham and Amersham.

    Summary of the 5 May 2005 House of Commons of the United Kingdom election results
    (parties with more than one seat; not including N. Ireland)
    Party Seats Seats % Votes % Votes
    Labour Party 355 56.5 36.1 9,552,436
    Conservative Party 198 31.5 33.2 8,782,192
    Liberal Democrats 62 9.9 22.6 5,985,454
    Scottish National Party 6 1.0 1.6 412,267
    Plaid Cymru 3 0.5 0.7 174,838
    Others 4 0.6 5.7 1,523,716
    Total 628 26,430,908


    Ever since the last election we have been hearing about the conservatives shouldn't be in power because more people voted against them than for them. Why don't people just accept that they lost? What happened has always been so as can be evinced from the results above as an example.
    Can we stop the "Oh it's not fair, we lost" thing? We never hear it when labour win.
    Just get over it.

  16. #16

    Re: Hammering for Conservatives in Chesham and Amersham.

    Quote Originally Posted by xsnaggle View Post
    Summary of the 5 May 2005 House of Commons of the United Kingdom election results
    (parties with more than one seat; not including N. Ireland)
    Party Seats Seats % Votes % Votes
    Labour Party 355 56.5 36.1 9,552,436
    Conservative Party 198 31.5 33.2 8,782,192
    Liberal Democrats 62 9.9 22.6 5,985,454
    Scottish National Party 6 1.0 1.6 412,267
    Plaid Cymru 3 0.5 0.7 174,838
    Others 4 0.6 5.7 1,523,716
    Total 628 26,430,908


    Ever since the last election we have been hearing about the conservatives shouldn't be in power because more people voted against them than for them. Why don't people just accept that they lost? What happened has always been so as can be evinced from the results above as an example.
    Can we stop the "Oh it's not fair, we lost" thing? We never hear it when labour win.
    Just get over it.

    Brexit.....you lost ....get over it

    The election ......you lost ......get over it

    I wonder 🤔 which side of the political spectrum this poster falls into ?

    Mmmmm

    Anyway people don't vote tory to keep Labour out , the tories have always had a rump of the vote , its the floating voters and the combined opposition that generally do the tactical voting . Which is why a progressive alliance should have been formed as soon as thatcher got in .

    This by election , for the first time in memory saw the liberals steal thousands of votes off the tories and it was all about HS2

    It was the ultimate protest vote and come the general election that seat will go tory again

    Its often said that you could put a red rosette on a donkey in some places and people would vote labour but the reverse is even more true , many times over in the south of England. Outside of London only Oxford East is staunchly anti tory . Even in Wales Monmouth, Cardiff North and several other seats are often occupied by the blue nasty party .

  17. #17

    Re: Hammering for Conservatives in Chesham and Amersham.

    One for the diary .

    Batley and Spen by-election 1st July 2021.

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