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A population of about 40m people
How many realistically are going to flee to other countries?
About 5%-10% maybe. The majority to neighbouring countries. Will be interesting to see what happens with Turkey / Greece.Originally Posted by WJ99mobile
Depends on what the Taliban are like mind and if they even try to prevent people leaving..they may even encourage it.
What are you basing 5-10% on?
Very few as a percentage I'd guess. The very most desperate and those with little reason to stay.
One reporter was walking around the centre yesterday, shops were open, girls were walking around chatting, people were sitting down for ice cream and coffee. Looked fairly civilised.
I'm aware the situation in other areas of the city is very different, certainly other reports from rural areas but to some Afghans it's not yet the all out carnage the media portrays.
I'm sure it will get worse, particularly for females.
Taliban PR is in overdrive at the moment, when the cameras and attention goes though so will the planes and people will be stuck there.
Just a guess. But I think the Syrian civil war was about 25% of its population fleeing abroad. The Taliban will either be very repressive or horrific but if a war doesn't ensue then you wouldn't anticipate numbers as high as Syria.
40 million ?? 70k ish Taliban , perhaps they are a lot more Taliban friendlies / believers in Afghanistan than we really appreciate ?
How many of the people "fleeing" might in fact be terrorists going into european countries as sleepers?
No that wouldnt happen would it? It couldnt could it?
You mean as part of the evacuees? I think they're just taking those who had worked with our side, but it looks chaotic so not impossible that someone could sneak through.
But really, what's the alternative? Help no one, just in case?
A humanitarian crisis and all you're concerned about is imagined "sleepers"?
Forgetting all the news spin and propaganda, most won’t flee because they’re perfectly happy living in the way they’ve lived and chosen to live for centuries and millennia .
We might not like it, but it’s still their choice and if they preferred our ways they’d have adopted them long ago.
In the same way as you probably don’t want them to come here and introduce shariah law in your street, truth is they don’t want anyone to go there and introduce feminism , abortion or gay marriage.
We must try and rescue the people our governments have alienated from their own people and mourn the poor soldiers who’s lives were thrown away on this horrible latter day crusade, but accept that if they wanted our customs and supervision , they wouldn’t have chucked us out.
I remember the same being said (by the same people) about Syrians.
The fact is, we are more susceptible to terrorism now, and the Taliban are quite capable of getting people into Europe further down the line. They don't need to sneak sleepers on these planes.
You honestly think ordinary Afghans have a free choice over the way they live? That's utter bollocks.
Do you have a free choice how you live then ?
Not a matter of everyone suddenly doing what they want, but if there were an appetite for “democracy “ it’d have gradually worked its way in over centuries as it has in the West.
Maybe one of the stupidest posts we’ve ever had on here fair play.
By the way, it’s ****ng ridiculous to jump on what I posted as if I’m defending or recommending fundamental Islam then simply ignore the fact that what I said is true and practical.
Really ?
Invading and occupying them has worked really well hasn’t it ?
Sorry for being so dense Professor and good luck on your next adventure in the desert Lawrence.
I was talking about this
Which would be a fair enough quote if you knew nothing about history or the region at all.if there were an appetite for “democracy “ it’d have gradually worked its way in over centuries as it has in the West.
No I didnt mean those that have been helping us, but all the others who will flee.
Another posts mentions 'imagined' sleepers but oddly enough these thing do happen. Strange isnt it?
Those claiming asylum must be aided but there should be strong cheecks in place. And I dont mean UK particularly but all Euorpean countries, they have had their fair share of terrorist incidents in recent years.
I appreciate there is no easy answer but it needs to be addressed. It is too easy to dismiss it because of a humanitarian crisis, but the threat is real not just imagined.
As I said, I dont mean on the planes and I dont just mean UK. The potential threat is to the whole of Europe, you may think it is imaginary but it isnt, its real.
I half-expect there to be a civil war in Afghanistan within the next six to twelve months. Their loyalties lie almost solely with family and tribe, and they very rarely stick with allegiances or alliances for very long. Things will start to break down, and we have already seen protests in the larger cities.
If you want to read about the country, try Rory Stewart's excellent travel book 'The places in between', which describes a mainly empty country, where the tribes keep to themselves, and hostile grudges can be held for generations. Actually, his book on the difficulties trying to govern in Iraq, 'Occupational Hazards', is also highly recommended. He'd have been a great (and very different) Conservative leader/Prime Minister, but lost out to Boris Johnson, and declined an opportunity to serve in his Cabinet.
I have a client who used to work in the UK embassy in Kabul ( Ive mentioned him in the past ) he is a ex-RM who now does Close Protection / security work
He befriended a young afghan lad ( he must now be in his late 20's ) when he was cleaning his room in the embassy , The guy has been over to the UK a few times, He has even been to my house for a BBQ ( meat free, poor bloke ), when he comes over he always asks his host if he can have a coffee with me, he loves to hear about family life in the UK and my general waffling ( I know, he must be desperate to hear them from me ) He is always willing to chat about life before the Invasion ( which doesn't sound like much fun ) and life since ( which he loves ), I find him a fascinating bloke and truly wish him well
I spoke to the ex RM about him yesterday, he is desperately trying to get him out, he is a target due to 1. working with the UK, 2. being gay
The ex RM thinks that the Taliban will start off slowly while the world is watching, then as soon as they are old news, the old regime will kick in
https://www.unhcr.org/cy/wp-content/...an_Dec2015.pdf
Hope the lad gets out .I have a client who used to work in the UK embassy in Kabul ( Ive mentioned him in the past ) he is a ex-RM who now does Close Protection / security work
He befriended a young afghan lad ( he must now be in his late 20's ) when he was cleaning his room in the embassy , The guy has been over to the UK a few times, He has even been to my house for a BBQ ( meat free, poor bloke ), when he comes over he always asks his host if he can have a coffee with me, he loves to hear about family life in the UK and my general waffling ( I know, he must be desperate to hear them from me ) He is always willing to chat about life before the Invasion ( which doesn't sound like much fun ) and life since ( which he loves ), I find him a fascinating bloke and truly wish him well
I spoke to the ex RM about him yesterday, he is desperately trying to get him out, he is a target due to 1. working with the UK, 2. being gay
The ex RM thinks that the Taliban will start off slowly while the world is watching, then as soon as they are old news, the old regime will kick in
Might just be wishful thinking but I think the taliban may have to be a little better behaved than last time. There was a simmering civil war there before the invasion between the taleban and the northern alliance. The taleban needed the crazies of alqaeda and the rest to try and get a handle on them.
As people have mentioned Afghanistan political system is very tribal. The various minorities in Afghanistan actually make up just over 60 %of the population, the majority pashtuns just under 40. The taleban know they are going to be under the microscope from the outside world, so they are probably going to have to give a lot of autonomy to local populations.
This is a wonderful, sad, and scary post all in one. I wish your ex RM all the best and obviously hope the Afghan lad can escape. I feel really choked up reading this.I have a client who used to work in the UK embassy in Kabul ( Ive mentioned him in the past ) he is a ex-RM who now does Close Protection / security work
He befriended a young afghan lad ( he must now be in his late 20's ) when he was cleaning his room in the embassy , The guy has been over to the UK a few times, He has even been to my house for a BBQ ( meat free, poor bloke ), when he comes over he always asks his host if he can have a coffee with me, he loves to hear about family life in the UK and my general waffling ( I know, he must be desperate to hear them from me ) He is always willing to chat about life before the Invasion ( which doesn't sound like much fun ) and life since ( which he loves ), I find him a fascinating bloke and truly wish him well
I spoke to the ex RM about him yesterday, he is desperately trying to get him out, he is a target due to 1. working with the UK, 2. being gay
The ex RM thinks that the Taliban will start off slowly while the world is watching, then as soon as they are old news, the old regime will kick in
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