International football: Wales/Cymru v Finland, Belarus and Estonia

[surge]

https://www.whoscored.com/Matches/15...-Belarus-Wales

Whoscored data here.

The sort of game which makes me think stats can be very limited when looked at in isolation really.

[surge]

This is an interesting post too:

Thought we looked a lot better with Sparky Harris on the pitch. You can see here with the average position maps we looked to have a lot more structure with Harris (18) as a striker rather than Colwill (13) as a false 9

https://twitter.com/CaiStatsFTBL/sta...63815664926720

There's a negative reaction to playing a false 9 but today maybe:

i) Proved why we've kept going back to it - Kieffer aside our big strikers to play off are a young, attacking midfielder just starting out, playing our most important player in a role which he seems uncomfortable in, playing Tyler Roberts in a role he's uncomfortable in or... Majority of our (high profile) young attackers are smaller men.

ii) Proved why majority of fans aren't keen and prefer a striker as a natural focal point. Sparky is 6ft so not a small man even if strengths aren't the same as Kieffer's (Vokes or HRK before).

I still think we need to analyse how Man City/Liverpool open teams up without a striker to play off rather than going a) Kieffer Moore or b) worry. It could be good learning for Colwill but I wouldn't be forcing him into that role and he's done better so far in his natural position.

[the other bob wilson]

This is an interesting post too:



There's a negative reaction to playing a false 9 but today maybe:

i) Proved why we've kept going back to it - Kieffer aside our big strikers to play off are a young, attacking midfielder just starting out, playing our most important player in a role which he seems uncomfortable in, playing Tyler Roberts in a role he's uncomfortable in or... Majority of our (high profile) young attackers are smaller men.

ii) Proved why majority of fans aren't keen and prefer a striker as a natural focal point. Sparky is 6ft so not a small man even if strengths aren't the same as Kieffer's (Vokes or HRK before).

I still think we need to analyse how Man City/Liverpool open teams up without a striker to play off rather than going a) Kieffer Moore or b) worry. It could be good learning for Colwill but I wouldn't be forcing him into that role and he's done better so far in his natural position.

The plan might have been to have a false number nine, but Colwill ended up playing more like a target man for me - a role he seems totally unsuited for in my book.

[Eric the Half a Bee]

The plan might have been to have a false number nine, but Colwill ended up playing more like a target man for me - a role he seems totally unsuited for in my book.

Thinking Kelvin Etuhu in that Blackpool playoff final

[surge]

Thinking Kelvin Etuhu in that Blackpool playoff final

A case of "big lads play up front in this formation - you're a big lad so let's try you out."

It didn't work today but apart from Jack Vale (Blackburn youth) I can't see either a natural successor to Kieffer or useful back-up. Probably why I've always been higher on a false 9 system than others.

Mark Harris has sent a tweet:

Dreams really do come true. My first international cap and what a win! Thank you everyone for the messages and support.

https://twitter.com/sparkyharris11/s...42493048221703

[the other bob wilson]

Belgium beating the Czechs 3-0.

[OurManFlint II]

Belgium beating the Czechs 3-0.

I watched this one, the Czech are obviously good and I expect them to be favourites going into the game in Oct but i was thinking Wales might actually have a chance of getting something. A win this week is critical for Wales then all in for that Oct fixture, i just can't see the Belorussian or Estonians taking points off them, or us taking anything from Belgium, who looked very good last night.

[the other bob wilson]

I watched this one, the Czech are obviously good and I expect them to be favourites going into the game in Oct but i was thinking Wales might actually have a chance of getting something. A win this week is critical for Wales then all in for that Oct fixture, i just can't see the Belorussian or Estonians taking points off them, or us taking anything from Belgium, who looked very good last night.

I agree with all of that although it might work to our benefit playing Belgium last if they've already won the group.

[the other bob wilson]

Bale makes himself even more of a Welsh legend with hat trick in crucial win.

A memorable full Welsh debut for Mark Harris.

http://mauveandyellowarmy.net/

[Pearcey3]

I agree with all of that although it might work to our benefit playing Belgium last if they've already won the group.

We can still win the group! We beat Belgium in Cardiff last time out and with a strong squad can do so again.

[OurManFlint II]

Bale makes himself even more of a Welsh legend with hat trick in crucial win.

A memorable full Welsh debut for Mark Harris.

http://mauveandyellowarmy.net/

"...the odds on any team getting three penalties in a match must be tens of thousands to one."

Wonder what the odds would be on missing all 3?

The imperfect hatrick

https://www.fourfourtwo.com/features...9-copa-america

[lardy]

"...the odds on any team getting three penalties in a match must be tens of thousands to one."

Wonder what the odds would be on missing all 3?

The imperfect hatrick

https://www.fourfourtwo.com/features...9-copa-america

He had a good career but that is his legacy, poor guy

[Rjk]

We can still win the group! We beat Belgium in Cardiff last time out and with a strong squad can do so again.

Isn't that the only thing we are really playing for anyway?
If we finish anywhere else in the group we are in a playoff. The same is pretty much true for the Czech Republic as well.

[surge]

Isn't that the only thing we are really playing for anyway?
If we finish anywhere else in the group we are in a playoff. The same is pretty much true for the Czech Republic as well.

You can track second round qualification here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_F...A_Second_Round

It looks likely that Wales or Czechia will make it in via Nations League. Still,

Hard gains by finishing top 2 in our group:

- The six best-ranked runners-up will be seeded in the semi-final draw, while the remaining four runners-up and two teams advancing via the Nations League will be unseeded. The six seeded teams will be allocated to semi-finals 1 to 6 as the host team in the order drawn.

Soft gains by finishing as high as possible:

- So much of football is about momentum.
- We're a small nation who would do well to have as high gate receipts as possible and as much (positive) external interest as possible which are both boosted by us winning games.

[Rjk]

You can track second round qualification here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_F...A_Second_Round

It looks likely that Wales or Czechia will make it in via Nations League. Still,

Hard gains by finishing top 2 in our group:

- The six best-ranked runners-up will be seeded in the semi-final draw, while the remaining four runners-up and two teams advancing via the Nations League will be unseeded. The six seeded teams will be allocated to semi-finals 1 to 6 as the host team in the order drawn.

Soft gains by finishing as high as possible:

- So much of football is about momentum.
- We're a small nation who would do well to have as high gate receipts as possible and as much (positive) external interest as possible which are both boosted by us winning games.

yes good points, I would definitely rather be in the seeded side of the draw as it currently stands.

[Vindec]

People have been clamouring for Cardiff City to play youngsters but already there is criticism of Colwill for his performance for Wales. Would the same happen if the Cardiff team rather than the Welsh team played players from our academy? You betcha! No wonder managers want to stick with the tried and tested players. Ironically, Bale apart, our best player was the experienced Johnny Williams.

However, I agree Harris did well - probably better than he does in a Cardiff City shirt but give Colwill a break. Those who want us to use academy players could at least support those who played (either for Wales or Cardiff) even if they didn't do that well. And that includes the Welsh temporary manager. Calling for him to be replaced is ludicrous.

[the other bob wilson]

He had a good career but that is his legacy, poor guy

Yeah, he's forty seven now, so he probably faces another thirty of forty years of having strangers come up to him and say "you're the guy who missed three penalties in a game while playing for Argentina aren't you?".

[the other bob wilson]

He had a good career but that is his legacy, poor guy

Agreed, there's always the chance that he'll be found not guilty, but Ryan Giggs is the one who should be decisive in this situation and announce he'll be standing down, so that Wales can move on after more than a year of uncertainty. If that were to happen, Robert Page would be able to point to a pretty good record in terms of results as caretaker manager, but I would argue that it's not good enough for it to be an inevitability that he would take over full time if Giggs stepped aside.

Edit, apologies, this was meant as a reply to Vindec's post.

[OurManFlint II]

Yeah, he's forty seven now, so he probably faces another thirty of forty years of having strangers come up to him and say "you're the guy who missed three penalties in a game while playing for Argentina aren't you?".

To be fair he is also remembered in Spain for the guy who had his leg broken when celebrating fans crushed him

[surge]

I think most of us would agree more with local ratings (https://www.walesonline.co.uk/sport/...-bale-21488163) than the whoscored ratings (https://www.whoscored.com/Matches/15...-Belarus-Wales).

I think Giggs deserves credit for:

+ Blooding youth at CM for where the game is going rather than easy option of just sticking Vaulks in
+ Winning games when the pressure was on to help us qualify automatically to the Euros
+ Bringing with him connections to boost our backroom staff
+ Buying into process of travelling round Wales working with kids and increasing revenue for the FAW

However, his personal life has caused him to be a very expensive distraction recently - further comments will be a lot more honest than that once full information out. The FAW have done incredibly well to keep momentum going but I haven't seen anything from Page yet that makes me think he's the main man (at least not without big money being spent on assistants) rather than one of the backroom staff even though he's done really well in testing circumstances.

[surge]

Huge boost for Wales. Joe Rodon back in squad for Estonia game on Wednesday.

https://twitter.com/philblanche/stat...13472332787714

Joe Rodon will be there. Will you? https://www.eticketing.co.uk/fawtickets-english/

[blue matt]

Agreed, there's always the chance that he'll be found not guilty, but Ryan Giggs is the one who should be decisive in this situation and announce he'll be standing down, so that Wales can move on after more than a year of uncertainty. If that were to happen, Robert Page would be able to point to a pretty good record in terms of results as caretaker manager, but I would argue that it's not good enough for it to be an inevitability that he would take over full time if Giggs stepped aside.

Edit, apologies, this was meant as a reply to Vindec's post.

I like Pagey, a honest bloke who will ask players to step up

you will not get a prouder Welsh bloke than him either, and imho that goes a long way in international football

[dembethewarrior]

I like Pagey, a honest bloke who will ask players to step up

you will not get a prouder Welsh bloke than him either, and imho that goes a long way in international football

On that basis anyone I watch the games with down the pub are a candidate.

[LeningradCowboy]

Agreed, there's always the chance that he'll be found not guilty, but Ryan Giggs is the one who should be decisive in this situation and announce he'll be standing down, so that Wales can move on after more than a year of uncertainty. If that were to happen, Robert Page would be able to point to a pretty good record in terms of results as caretaker manager, but I would argue that it's not good enough for it to be an inevitability that he would take over full time if Giggs stepped aside.

Edit, apologies, this was meant as a reply to Vindec's post.

Giggs' contract expires after the World Cup next year and I don't think we should appoint a new permanent manager before then.

[the other bob wilson]

Giggs' contract expires after the World Cup next year and I don't think we should appoint a new permanent manager before then.

I’m saying Giggs should resign.