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Thread: Another Brexit Bonus

  1. #201

    Re: Another Brexit Bonus

    Quote Originally Posted by JamesWales View Post
    I'm not saying that. I've always been of the belief that leaving or remaining in the EU would have far less of an impact than many on either side suggested.

    FYI - Exports to the EU are the highest since records began. Why isn't that reported?
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/natio...22#main-points
    Maybe because it is all a bit inconclusive. Does the growth in UK's trade with EU outstrip that of other similar economies? Is the growth higher than would have been the case if UK had remained in the EU?

    I certainly don't know, but some people (no doubt with their own agendas) think the answer to both questions over the longer term is 'no'.

    https://www.ft.com/content/2f63ef97-...d-4fb2e7ee9a5a

    (Behind a firewall for me now, so may also be for others)

    Anyway, trade impacts are only one aspect, which it seems can be argued either way depending on which data and timescales you look at. In a sense maybe I'm partly agreeing with with your second sentence. I think our international standing and reputation, the delicate political situation in NI, and our access to world leading research are also critical issues. Do you think we are in a better place now than without Brexit when you look at this bigger picture?

  2. #202

    Re: Another Brexit Bonus

    Quote Originally Posted by Swiss Peter View Post
    Maybe because it is all a bit inconclusive. Does the growth in UK's trade with EU outstrip that of other similar economies? Is the growth higher than would have been the case if UK had remained in the EU?

    I certainly don't know, but some people (no doubt with their own agendas) think the answer to both questions over the longer term is 'no'.

    https://www.ft.com/content/2f63ef97-...d-4fb2e7ee9a5a

    (Behind a firewall for me now, so may also be for others)

    Anyway, trade impacts are only one aspect, which it seems can be argued either way depending on which data and timescales you look at. In a sense maybe I'm partly agreeing with with your second sentence. I think our international standing and reputation, the delicate political situation in NI, and our access to world leading research are also critical issues. Do you think we are in a better place now than without Brexit when you look at this bigger picture?
    We don't know the answer to your questions. What we do know is that exports are at a record high (would be nice if the BBC reported it) and our unemployment is lower and our wages-inflation rate, whilst poor is vastly better than the EU's at the moment - all of it points to our problems not being caused by the big B and perhaps even being aided by it.

    We would all agree that the pandemic has absolutely shattered any ability to properly analyse things. I think the country is more divided than it should be, though I do largely pin that on those that didn't accept the result and fought against it. In other terms, I think it's neutral, perhaps better as the vaccine rollout and wage growth is perhaps aided by it.

  3. #203

    Re: Another Brexit Bonus

    Quote Originally Posted by JamesWales View Post
    We don't know the answer to your questions. What we do know is that exports are at a record high (would be nice if the BBC reported it) and our unemployment is lower and our wages-inflation rate, whilst poor is vastly better than the EU's at the moment - all of it points to our problems not being caused by the big B and perhaps even being aided by it.

    We would all agree that the pandemic has absolutely shattered any ability to properly analyse things. I think the country is more divided than it should be, though I do largely pin that on those that didn't accept the result and fought against it. In other terms, I think it's neutral, perhaps better as the vaccine rollout and wage growth is perhaps aided by it.
    Thanks for the genuine answer to a genuine question.

    Of course, the more we consider unquantifiable things like international standing/reputation, the more we have to rely on our own perceptions. You regard the wider picture as 'neutral', I think the wider picture is an embarrassing utterly avoidable mess.

    By the way, you slipped in 'vaccination rollout' as a Brexit benefit. It's old ground, but people forget stuff, so just as a quick reminder, the facts are actually:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/55163730

    https://www.channel4.com/news/factch...-authorisation

  4. #204

  5. #205

    Re: Another Brexit Bonus

    If Brexit was / is so bad why has exports performed well .

    I do know a few lads who have now picked up work due to the less reliance on Eastern Europeans in the jobs market , in some cases wages have risen as a result of cheap labour no longer keeping wages down ie HGV drivers which is a favourite job the Eastern Europeans were keen on .

    Our employment figures are very impressive , considering we have been through a pandemic ,Furlough was a brilliant move that needed applauding ..

    I don't think leaving has been the disaster that many predicted ,most of our current woes are due to Pandemic ,World Supply Supply Breakdown , global inflation , Ukraine , Fuel , Wheat crisis ...

    I have been impressed how quickly we have reacted to supporting Ukraine so much quicker and better than the EU along with the funding , rollout of the Vaccine which was first class .

    I do think it shows we can do things on our own , albeit we still need to be a partner and a close ally of the EU ..


    You'd think if Brexit was going to hurt us , our inflation woes would be so much worse than they are now , the pound would be weaker against the Euro , in fact its been very steady at 115 / 117 , as it has against other currencies and the stock markets is still delivering surely folk can see now its not all been that forecasted project doom ??

  6. #206

    Re: Another Brexit Bonus

    We could follow Germanys recent decision to fire up 150 coal plants and increase its exports and jobs , however the Germans Greens are kicking off , suppose they rather see folk freeze with less Russian Oil ?????

    Germany already uses coal for power 27 times higher than UK because of the depth of their manufacturing base which drives the need for much more fuel than us , we moved away form heavy industry into service and tech , finance and sciences industries , who is the doing the right thing for the future , where will we be in 10 years time ????

  7. #207

    Re: Another Brexit Bonus

    Quote Originally Posted by life on mars View Post
    suppose they rather see folk freeze with less Russian Oil ?????
    That's literally what you've been advocating for

  8. #208

    Re: Another Brexit Bonus

    Quote Originally Posted by Doucas View Post
    I respect the Resolution Foundation, they aren't some batty politically biased thinktank like many are, who just churn out what their funders pay for.

    That said, I think the headlines are a bit questionable. It is near impossible to untangle the pandemic and then Ukraine from anything. It is also still relatively new territory and even Brexits biggest backers would recognise gains would be long term. It's also another example of a prediction that is somewhat undermined by fact.

    Unemployment IS lower in the UK than the EU
    Wages are rising faster in the UK than the EU (and far faster than before we left) - alas, inflation more than wipes it out, but as discussed elsewhere this is a problem inside and out of the EU
    Exports to the EU are at a record high

    Now of course, we don't know what would have happened had we stayed, and it's a valid point on the depreciation of the pound (but note also that the euro is at a 20 year low against the dollar at the moment) but it's highly unlikely we would be vastly outperforming other EU nation - more reasonable to assume we would be doing as they currently are, which as stated is in many respects worse than us.

  9. #209
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    Re: Another Brexit Bonus

    Quote Originally Posted by Tito Fuente View Post
    That's literally what you've been advocating for
    Unreal!

  10. #210

    Re: Another Brexit Bonus

    Quote Originally Posted by jon1959 View Post
    Unreal!
    Of course over populated region anyways , I'm just in alignment with the Greens and Greta ...........

  11. #211

    Re: Another Brexit Bonus

    fair play he;s still clinging to his principles after all this time !


  12. #212

    Re: Another Brexit Bonus

    Quote Originally Posted by MOZZER2 View Post
    fair play he;s still clinging to his principles after all this time !

    Police have just seized our amplifiers x 2. And microphone. I still have megaphone. We are going to need more amplifiers and people. pic.twitter.com/6myZ3d6cMq
    ó Steve Bray Activist Against Brexit +Corrupt Tories (@snb19692) June 28, 2022
    It's these new protest laws innit, but nothing is happening according to delmbox & cyril.

  13. #213

    Re: Another Brexit Bonus

    He probably just wants to use his megaphone to tell everyone that Welsh food and drink exports are at a record high
    https://gov.wales/welsh-food-and-dri...as%20announced.

  14. #214

    Re: Another Brexit Bonus

    Quote Originally Posted by MOZZER2 View Post
    fair play he;s still clinging to his principles after all this time !

    Steve is the Real Deal, should be PM for me,👍

  15. #215

    Re: Another Brexit Bonus

    Some very recent analysis from Bloomberg Markets UK paints a worrying picture. It's fine saying exports unadjusted for inflation are at record highs for instance until you compare them with performance against our major competitors within and without the EU. The investment trend is equally troubling though that gap can't be solely placed at Brexit's door.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...breaking-point

  16. #216

    Re: Another Brexit Bonus

    What have we done?

    UK trade figures drop to worst level on record. Imports leap and exports fall. Caused by leaving the EU Single Market.

    https://twitter.com/grahambsi/status...y9CkjkusVeQlYM

  17. #217

    Re: Another Brexit Bonus

    Who could have forseen this..

    UK trade performance falls to worst level on record in first quarter - https://www.ft.com/content/a31b4b8e-...retype=blocked

    Please use the sharing tools found via the share button at the top or side of articles. Copying articles to share with others is a breach of FT.com T&Cs and Copyright Policy. Email licensing@ft.com to buy additional rights. Subscribers may share up to 10 or 20 articles per month using the gift article service. More information can be found at https://www.ft.com/tour.
    https://www.ft.com/content/a31b4b8e-...retype=blocked

    The UK’s trade performance this year fell to its worst level since records began, heaping more pressure on sterling in international currency markets.

    The country’s current account deficit was calculated at 8.3 per cent of gross domestic product in the first quarter of 2022, a deterioration from an average of 2.6 per cent across all of 2021.

    It was the worst figure on record since quarterly balance of payments data was first published in 1955.

    The weak performance of UK exports and a surge in imports highlight the economic effects of Brexit. The figures tally with academic studies that show a decline in exports since 2021, when the UK left the EU single market and new border controls were introduced.

    The Office for National Statistics warned that the figures for the first quarter of 2022 were “subject to higher levels of uncertainty than normal”. It added that it had developed a new system based on customs records to increase accuracy.

    Even when relatively volatile goods such as gold and other precious metals were excluded, the current account deficit still rose from an average of 2.4 per cent of GDP in 2021 to 7.1 per cent in the first quarter of this year.

    The gaping current account deficit largely reflects a record imbalance of imports and exports. However, there were also deficits in investment income and transfers of money between countries.

    The ONS said it was investigating a big rise in imports that it had recorded along with foreign direct investment and advised caution on interpreting the quality of the data.

    Paul Dales, chief economist at Capital Economics, said the most noteworthy element in the figures was a 4.4 per cent fall in real exports and a 10.4 per cent leap in real imports.

    “At the start of this year, the ONS started to measure imports between the UK and the EU in a slightly different way.” This resulted in a “large step change upwards”, he said, adding that the figures were “really hard to interpret”.

    Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said a surge in energy prices was the main cause of the country’s difficulties.

    He echoed former Bank of England governor Mark Carney, who warned repeatedly after the Brexit referendum that the value of the pound depended on the “kindness of strangers”.

    “The adverse consequences of the UK dependence on external finance that stems from the large current account deficit have been clear over the past month, with sterling depreciating sharply as global investors have collectively shunned risky assets,” said Tombs.

    The pound, which was stable in currency markets on Thursday morning, has lost more than 10 per cent of its value against the US dollar over the past year, while remaining broadly stable against the euro.

  18. #218

    Re: Another Brexit Bonus

    Quote Originally Posted by Doucas View Post
    Who could have forseen this..

    UK trade performance falls to worst level on record in first quarter - https://www.ft.com/content/a31b4b8e-...retype=blocked
    Did you just breach Copyright and flag up that you did

  19. #219

    Re: Another Brexit Bonus

    Quote Originally Posted by Taunton Blue Genie View Post
    Did you just breach Copyright and flag up that you did

  20. #220

    Re: Another Brexit Bonus

    UK signed a trade deal with New Zealand in 4 months ago the EUís negotiations took years of talks, how is that progression and helping European citizens..

    I see inflation is spiralling in Europe , they can't fill HGV airport jobs they have a fuel crisis , is that because we left the EU ?? , only ask as some are so desperate to hang all issue onto Brexit , where it seems the whole world is in the same boat , they are also seeing the same pressures in the job market ,food shortages , inflationary pressures and fuel prices going up...

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