Another Brexit Bonus

[JamesWales]

Nearly every 'prediction' of doom regarding Brexit has proven to be totally untrue. I can't think of a single one that hasn't? Maybe something around some fishing problems? Perhaps it's true when you re-read it that the predictions referred only to teething problems hidden behind apocalyptic headlines?

It was always going to be so, for three key reasons.

1 / the public generally don't vote against their own economic interests.

2 / the predictions were always nakedly political and impossible to obtain a genuine non partisan prediction for

3 / even if the predictions were true (and they werent) when circumstances or variables change then the results change. So for example if importing something from abroad did become trickier (and in some cases it has) then the purchaser is now probably buying the same product from within the UK. There's no net economic cost, just a change

[Swiss Peter]

Nearly every 'prediction' of doom regarding Brexit has proven to be totally untrue. I can't think of a single one that hasn't? Maybe something around some fishing problems? Perhaps it's true when you re-read it that the predictions referred only to teething problems hidden behind apocalyptic headlines?

It was always going to be so, for three key reasons.

1 / the public generally don't vote against their own economic interests.

2 / the predictions were always nakedly political and impossible to obtain a genuine non partisan prediction for

3 / even if the predictions were true (and they werent) when circumstances or variables change then the results change. So for example if importing something from abroad did become trickier (and in some cases it has) then the purchaser is now probably buying the same product from within the UK. There's no net economic cost, just a change

I thought even you, with your deeply entrenched position, had accepted that it is still too early to be able to judge this one way or the other. In the meantime, as has already been highlighted in this thread, the Office of Budget Responsibility has predicted:

"The new trading relationship will reduce long-run productivity by 4 per cent relative to remaining in the EU"

"Both exports and imports will be around 15 per cent lower in the long run than if the UK had remained in the EU"

"New trade deals with non-EU countries will not have a material impact".

Those are precisely the 'predictions of doom' that people were making. However, maybe the OBR is wrong and you are right. We don't know yet, do we?. I have also heard some say that a 4% hit on GDP is worth it to have 'taken back control'. I don't personally see it that way. A 4% hit on GDP means real people losing real jobs.

Also, you should look beyond your focus on the economy. Those of us against leaving predicted that there could be some real issues in terms of implementing Brexit in practice in Ireland, and in terms of our wider relationships/status with our neighbours and beyond. If you think that things are turning out well in that respect then I would disagree with you.

Hope this helps

[JamesWales]

You've just written some predictions there. Not facts. The facts show that almost five years after the vote the UK is generally performing on a par with the EU and a year after leaving we are generally outperforming our peers - needless to say the pandemic makes a proper analysis impossible but you can only go on the facts at hard.

This isn't what was promised by the 'Britain Stronger in Europe' case which predicted house price crashes, rising unemployment, a stock market crash and an immediate recession.

All nonsense. There's an analysis of it here.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/...aged-the-worst

I really don't know why people keep harking back to a time now more than five years in the past. There's pros and cons, sure, but just focusing on the negatives will just mean you don't see or exploit the opportunities and will grow increasingly bitter. Times have changed.

[Swiss Peter]

You've just written some predictions there. Not facts. The facts show that almost five years after the vote the UK is generally performing on a par with the EU and a year after leaving we are generally outperforming our peers - needless to say the pandemic makes a proper analysis impossible but you can only go on the facts at hard.

This isn't what was promised by the 'Britain Stronger in Europe' case which predicted house price crashes, rising unemployment, a stock market crash and an immediate recession.

All nonsense. There's an analysis of it here.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/...aged-the-worst

I really don't know why people keep harking back to a time now more than five years in the past. There's pros and cons, sure, but just focusing on the negatives will just mean you don't see or exploit the opportunities and will grow increasingly bitter. Times have changed.

Oh God. There you again. Why can't you understand that current trade figures are not a conclusive measure of the impacts of Brexit?. I'm sure even you accepted that - many threads and many posts ago. Maybe JamesWales has got the prediction of impact on productivity of Brexit right and OBR have got it wrong. We'll see.

We left the EU on Jan 31st 2020, not 5 years ago, by the way.