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Thread: 127 is the answer

  1. #51
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    Re: 127 is the answer

    Quote Originally Posted by JamesWales View Post
    We are clearly coming at this from different angles and positions, and that's fine. I would add that I am where we are. It really is no use wishing we were still in the EU single market, because it isn't happening, at the very least not until some time after the next general election, depending on what platforms parties stand on and who wins, and even then it would take years.

    In short, we have to see how this is going to work, so we can spend years crying over spilt brexit, or we can get on with it.

    As I mentioned, i was 45/55 on the original question of remain or leave, so I get your arguments. I understand that the deal we now have with the EU is less good than it was from a trade perspective, but I think, on balance, the trade disadvantages can be offset by trading advantages elsewhere (in economies growing far quicker) and in terms of being nimbler to react (vaccines a classic example) and in terms of giving society a few more protections from the 'strings attached' to EU membership - for example I think managed immigration from the EU is better than unmanaged, and I think being able to circumvent state aid rules in limited examples can be a good thing too.

    And I don't want us to be self-sufficient, I just want us to be more self-sufficient. I think shorter, more sustainable supply chains is probably a good thing on balance, certainly is from an environmental perspective, and tentatively it seems the motor industry is reacting to that positively. I think moving on from the 'just in time' economy can bring benefits.

    But we shall see. All I ask if that we look at real world data and compare ourselves properly to the EU as opposed to using isolated, anecdotal data or only listen to sectors that will be more adversely affected, because even though I think on balance the UK will be better off, I recognise that this doesn't mean every sector in the economy will be.
    we're seeing the effects of managed immigration with food shortages, lack of drivers, inflation. huzzah!

    now I have to confess I have no idea what your position is. you want free trade with the rest of the world but shorter supply lines. In terms of supply lines, we can't get much shorter than crossing the sleive.

  2. #52

    Re: 127 is the answer

    Quote Originally Posted by Feedback View Post
    we're seeing the effects of managed immigration with food shortages, lack of drivers, inflation. huzzah!

    now I have to confess I have no idea what your position is. you want free trade with the rest of the world but shorter supply lines. In terms of supply lines, we can't get much shorter than crossing the sleive.
    I think food shortages is a bit of an exaggeration, and probably pretty offensive to much of the world. We've discussed the driver situation and I've provided a link that shows very clearly that inflation in the UK is lower than the eurozone and many EU (and global countries).

    In terms of the second point; I could ask the same of you. You seem to believe the answer to society's problems is a totally laissez faire economy yet you support membership of an organisation that expressly forbids any member from creating bilateral free-trade agreements with other countries in the world. Which is it?

    Moreover, I'm in 2021, dealing with the reality of the situation and focusing on positives. It's better than being stuck in 2016 and focusing on negatives.

    We don't agree on it, but that's irrelevant (and absolutely fine!) What is important is that we focus on the matter in hand and find the best way through it. You just saying "well, we should join the single market" doesn't solve anything. Campaign for it if you wish, but it would be many years away so doesn't help whatsoever now.

  3. #53

    Re: 127 is the answer

    I think food shortages is a bit of an exaggeration, and probably pretty offensive to much of the world. We've discussed the driver situation and I've provided a link that shows very clearly that inflation in the UK is lower than the eurozone and many EU (and global countries).
    Here’s a new one we can’t complain about food shortages because we aren’t as bad as 3rd world counties

    Has anyone admitted they were wrong to vote for this shit show yet? Still waiting for a tangible benefit of it.

  4. #54

    Re: 127 is the answer

    Quote Originally Posted by JamesWales View Post

    We could have re-joined the single market. Teresa May's deal pretty much advocated that, but people were too busy calling everyone racist and demanding a new referendum to accept it, so we are where we are.
    Sorry to go back a few pages but this gave me the best laugh I've had in ages. Boris' utter failure of an 'oven ready deal' was the fault of remainers ? If we all just believed really, really hard it would have been so much better obviously.

  5. #55
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    Re: 127 is the answer

    Quote Originally Posted by JamesWales View Post
    I think food shortages is a bit of an exaggeration, and probably pretty offensive to much of the world. We've discussed the driver situation and I've provided a link that shows very clearly that inflation in the UK is lower than the eurozone and many EU (and global countries).
    firstly, we are experiencing food shortages in comparison to pre Brexit. Arguing that we're currently better off than the third world is not really an argument, and it paints a picture of someone clutching at straws.

    As for inflation, it has already been said that the Eurozone and EU has differing inflation than our own. Again you cannot compare the two because they are different customs unions and markets. What next? we're doing better than Zimbabwe or Venezuela so we should be thankful. Inflation is at nearly 4% and it hasn't been that high for many a year.

    Quote Originally Posted by JamesWales View Post
    In terms of the second point; I could ask the same of you. You seem to believe the answer to society's problems is a totally laissez faire economy yet you support membership of an organisation that expressly forbids any member from creating bilateral free-trade agreements with other countries in the world. Which is it?
    when you answer a question with a question it tells us you have no answer of your own. But I'll humour you. Firstly, I don't believe in a totally free market, I may have used to, but opinions do change. However, ignoring that point as that is not what the one you were making, wanting to have free markets, free movement of people and free movement of capital and goods without state interference, in my opinion, is a good thing. We had it in the EU and if it means we don't get to buy bamboo from the Vietnamese duty free but it does mean 500m people are free to live and work amongst each other without state interference, I'll take it.

    Life is not so binary as you make out, and if it is a choice between being part of a large economic bloc that has freedom of its people at its heart, then I'll take that over being able to make free trade deals but at the same time blocking people from moving around freely and without interference. And FWIW, I was very much in favour of Schengen.

    Quote Originally Posted by JamesWales View Post
    Moreover, I'm in 2021, dealing with the reality of the situation and focusing on positives. It's better than being stuck in 2016 and focusing on negatives.
    Maybe we should have just accepted Hitler's inexorable rise to power in the 1930s as such a fait accompli and let him get on with it. and no, I'm not equating the two before you descend into apoplexy. The point being is that Farage started his folly in the 1990s and 20+ years later he got his dream. The more we point out that we are better of in the EU, the more likely it is that we will have another referendum on re-joining. Do you think the SNP have just given up?

    Quote Originally Posted by JamesWales View Post
    We don't agree on it, but that's irrelevant (and absolutely fine!) What is important is that we focus on the matter in hand and find the best way through it. You just saying "well, we should join the single market" doesn't solve anything. Campaign for it if you wish, but it would be many years away so doesn't help whatsoever now.
    Why doesn't it solve anything? The EU would have us back tomorrow if we asked. Notwithstanding that point, we are here now because of Brexit. EU lorry drivers leaving because they feel unwelcome (who can blame them), fruit pickers going home because they feel unwelcome (who can blame them), shortages in the hospitality industry, the list goes on.

    we had upwards of 2m or more EU nationals working here, many doing the type of work some Brits think are beneath them. Hard working people who work contributing towards a better society for all of us and we turned our backs on them and said we think we're better than them. You'll excuse me if I'm not frasmotic, unuspeptic, even compunctuous with glee. Its a shit show and we made it clear to our closest neighbours what we think of them.

  6. #56

    Re: 127 is the answer

    Seems Johnson is going to portray what's been happening in this country in the past few months as part of his master plan in his conference speech today.

    Going back sixty years or so ago, my mother had been brought up a Tory and had voted for them all of her life until the she heard the Prime Minister of the time, Harold Macmillan, tell her that she, and millions like her, "had never had it so good" - this was while her husband was having to go away to work five days in the midlands every week to provide for her and her young son who were living in a few rented rooms in Paget Street, Grangetown.

    My mother's political thinking changed completely the day she heard a Tory PM, who couldn't begin to understand what life was like for her, telling her what was just a load of old bollox.

    By rights, there should be huge numbers across the country who react the same way today when Johnson spouts his rubbish, but there won't be, because for the nodding dogs who follow him and his party these days, supporting the Conservative party has become like supporting a football team whereby you're blinded to all sorts of poor decision making and hopeless outcomes by thinking along the lines of "but their my team and I always support them".

    I'll credit Johnson with one thing, although it's often dressed up by feeble jokes and flowery vocabulary, he does have the capacity to portray total nonsense as fact with a completely straight face.

  7. #57

    Re: 127 is the answer

    Quote Originally Posted by Feedback View Post
    firstly, we are experiencing food shortages in comparison to pre Brexit. Arguing that we're currently better off than the third world is not really an argument, and it paints a picture of someone clutching at straws.

    As for inflation, it has already been said that the Eurozone and EU has differing inflation than our own. Again you cannot compare the two because they are different customs unions and markets. What next? we're doing better than Zimbabwe or Venezuela so we should be thankful. Inflation is at nearly 4% and it hasn't been that high for many a year.

    when you answer a question with a question it tells us you have no answer of your own. But I'll humour you. Firstly, I don't believe in a totally free market, I may have used to, but opinions do change. However, ignoring that point as that is not what the one you were making, wanting to have free markets, free movement of people and free movement of capital and goods without state interference, in my opinion, is a good thing. We had it in the EU and if it means we don't get to buy bamboo from the Vietnamese duty free but it does mean 500m people are free to live and work amongst each other without state interference, I'll take it.

    Life is not so binary as you make out, and if it is a choice between being part of a large economic bloc that has freedom of its people at its heart, then I'll take that over being able to make free trade deals but at the same time blocking people from moving around freely and without interference. And FWIW, I was very much in favour of Schengen.

    Maybe we should have just accepted Hitler's inexorable rise to power in the 1930s as such a fait accompli and let him get on with it. and no, I'm not equating the two before you descend into apoplexy. The point being is that Farage started his folly in the 1990s and 20+ years later he got his dream. The more we point out that we are better of in the EU, the more likely it is that we will have another referendum on re-joining. Do you think the SNP have just given up?

    Why doesn't it solve anything? The EU would have us back tomorrow if we asked. Notwithstanding that point, we are here now because of Brexit. EU lorry drivers leaving because they feel unwelcome (who can blame them), fruit pickers going home because they feel unwelcome (who can blame them), shortages in the hospitality industry, the list goes on.

    we had upwards of 2m or more EU nationals working here, many doing the type of work some Brits think are beneath them. Hard working people who work contributing towards a better society for all of us and we turned our backs on them and said we think we're better than them. You'll excuse me if I'm not frasmotic, unuspeptic, even compunctuous with glee. Its a shit show and we made it clear to our closest neighbours what we think of them.
    Mate, we are just going in circles here, but nonetheless, hold my hand and walk in a circle with me one more time..

    Other than that, you can have the last word - i just think we need to focus on clear economic facts, many of which are emerging in a post-EU and (hopefully) post covid world. https://tradingeconomics.com/calendar is a superb website and lists daily data (todays shows Germany factory orders in a big fall, construction stagnating in the EU, retail sales falling in France and UK construction growing, but more slowly than the last few months btw..)

    1 - Nah, sorry, I don’t think ‘food shortages’ is an appropriate term here. Supply chain issues sure, food shortages? That’s hyperbolic language. I shop around so have been to every supermarket bar Waitrose and not failed to buy anything I want. I did note that orange juice was unavailable in McDonalds once a couple of months ago, but food shortages..come on. Even the strongly anti-brexit guardian summarise it today as: Tesco profits double as shelves stay stocked despite supply chain problems | Tesco | The Guardian

    2 - Your point on inflation is weak. You are saying inflation is being caused by brexit, but inflation is higher in the Eurozone. Quite clearly what is driving global inflation is not brexit – does it help? Maybe not, but you need to deal in reality here and the facts don’t back you up on it. Now I’m not saying the UK won’t overtake the Eurozone or the EU. It may, and then it will fall behind it again. That’s what happens, but my point stands – Inflation is higher in the eurozone and many EU nations. I’ll repeat the data here: https://tradingeconomics.com/country...ntinent=europe

    3 - I’m not answering a question with a question as much as identifying myself as favouring mixed economies. It now seems you do too. I think society and economies are very complex and I favour our government having greater control over those levers. Remember, leaving the EU doesn’t prevent us doing anything. We can have totally open immigration in future if we want. We can apply to rejoin the single market if we want. What it does do is give us options – no bad thing in my opinion

    4 - I don’t make life out to be binary at all. In fact, if there is a running theme through nearly everything I say on political or social issues, it’s that life is complex and shades of grey and there are pros and cons to everything.

    5 – Your reference to Hitler (whilst simultaneously not equating them!) is of course pretty absurd, although we are all used to it for the last five years. I’ve said, campaign to re-join the single market by all means. Go for it, but by any definition it isn’t happening any time soon, so we need alternative solutions to problems at hand.

    6 – It doesn’t solve anything, because all you are doing is ignoring economic, social and democratic facts, stamping your feet and saying the answer is to rejoin the EU, but that’s not happening, so it’s a waste of time.

    7 – The UK processed 6m cases for people to work in the UK. Right up to the pandemic immigration from the EU was significantly higher than emigration to it (although it had slowed since the vote) so the idea that ‘everyone left cos of brexit’ just doesn’t hold water. Obviously there will be some cases of that, but the pandemic is clearly the factor here. Would you want to be stuck here in an uncertain locked down country or stuck at home with your family?

    8 – We hear lots about “lazy brits” who think work is beneath them etc. I hear you, but the issue is that a lot of sectors have reconfigured to only suit immigration; farming is the classic example, where the hours and wages suit those who can come over and are happy to live on the farm in basic accommodation. The whole sector has become totally reliant upon. It’s less that Brits won’t do it, it’s just few can do and maintain a quality of life. I would agree with you that fixing this is a problem, and where things like temporary visas, or working holidays etc would be very welcome.

  8. #58

    Re: 127 is the answer

    Quote Originally Posted by az city View Post
    That’s simplistic, one-eyed bollocks.

    Feedy owns you.
    Do you really have to descend to such language in such a debate? If you have a valid perspective why not just debate in a mature fashion?

  9. #59
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    Re: 127 is the answer

    Quote Originally Posted by JamesWales View Post
    Mate, we are just going in circles here, but nonetheless, hold my hand and walk in a circle with me one more time..

    Other than that, you can have the last word - i just think we need to focus on clear economic facts, many of which are emerging in a post-EU and (hopefully) post covid world. https://tradingeconomics.com/calendar is a superb website and lists daily data (todays shows Germany factory orders in a big fall, construction stagnating in the EU, retail sales falling in France and UK construction growing, but more slowly than the last few months btw..)

    1 - Nah, sorry, I don’t think ‘food shortages’ is an appropriate term here. Supply chain issues sure, food shortages? That’s hyperbolic language. I shop around so have been to every supermarket bar Waitrose and not failed to buy anything I want. I did note that orange juice was unavailable in McDonalds once a couple of months ago, but food shortages..come on. Even the strongly anti-brexit guardian summarise it today as: Tesco profits double as shelves stay stocked despite supply chain problems | Tesco | The Guardian

    2 - Your point on inflation is weak. You are saying inflation is being caused by brexit, but inflation is higher in the Eurozone. Quite clearly what is driving global inflation is not brexit – does it help? Maybe not, but you need to deal in reality here and the facts don’t back you up on it. Now I’m not saying the UK won’t overtake the Eurozone or the EU. It may, and then it will fall behind it again. That’s what happens, but my point stands – Inflation is higher in the eurozone and many EU nations. I’ll repeat the data here: https://tradingeconomics.com/country...ntinent=europe

    3 - I’m not answering a question with a question as much as identifying myself as favouring mixed economies. It now seems you do too. I think society and economies are very complex and I favour our government having greater control over those levers. Remember, leaving the EU doesn’t prevent us doing anything. We can have totally open immigration in future if we want. We can apply to rejoin the single market if we want. What it does do is give us options – no bad thing in my opinion

    4 - I don’t make life out to be binary at all. In fact, if there is a running theme through nearly everything I say on political or social issues, it’s that life is complex and shades of grey and there are pros and cons to everything.

    5 – Your reference to Hitler (whilst simultaneously not equating them!) is of course pretty absurd, although we are all used to it for the last five years. I’ve said, campaign to re-join the single market by all means. Go for it, but by any definition it isn’t happening any time soon, so we need alternative solutions to problems at hand.

    6 – It doesn’t solve anything, because all you are doing is ignoring economic, social and democratic facts, stamping your feet and saying the answer is to rejoin the EU, but that’s not happening, so it’s a waste of time.

    7 – The UK processed 6m cases for people to work in the UK. Right up to the pandemic immigration from the EU was significantly higher than emigration to it (although it had slowed since the vote) so the idea that ‘everyone left cos of brexit’ just doesn’t hold water. Obviously there will be some cases of that, but the pandemic is clearly the factor here. Would you want to be stuck here in an uncertain locked down country or stuck at home with your family?

    8 – We hear lots about “lazy brits” who think work is beneath them etc. I hear you, but the issue is that a lot of sectors have reconfigured to only suit immigration; farming is the classic example, where the hours and wages suit those who can come over and are happy to live on the farm in basic accommodation. The whole sector has become totally reliant upon. It’s less that Brits won’t do it, it’s just few can do and maintain a quality of life. I would agree with you that fixing this is a problem, and where things like temporary visas, or working holidays etc would be very welcome.
    Supply chain issues we did not have before
    global inflation caused by the supply of energy does not account for the UK's 4% inflation

    you are glossing over the very real issues and you're using issues others are facing as a smokescreen to hide from what we are seeing in the UK

    let me put it another way, what would it take for you to admit that Brexit has been to the detriment of the UK?

  10. #60

    Re: 127 is the answer

    Quote Originally Posted by Feedback View Post
    Supply chain issues we did not have before
    global inflation caused by the supply of energy does not account for the UK's 4% inflation

    you are glossing over the very real issues and you're using issues others are facing as a smokescreen to hide from what we are seeing in the UK

    let me put it another way, what would it take for you to admit that Brexit has been to the detriment of the UK?
    I did promise you the last word, but given as you asked a fair question at the end, I'll answer that:

    Q/ What would it take for you to admit that Brexit has been to the detriment of the UK?

    A/ Economically, I will be looking to see how the UK compares vs advanced western nations in the EU (Sweden, Italy, Spain, Germany, Portugal, France, Belgium etc..broadly the eurozone) in the coming years in terms of things like GDP growth, unemployment, debt, wage growth, inflation. ie, the key economic indicators which provide the best wider picture.

    Socially, it's much harder to analyse, but I would like to see reduced inequality, greater confidence, a happier society (almost impossible to assess) a more content, less anxious society, greater health outcomes etc.

    So that's how I will assess it in quantitative and qualitative terms.

    We don't agree, but I am sure we both want more or less the same things for Wales and the UK so lets home it works out.

  11. #61

    Re: 127 is the answer

    Quote Originally Posted by JamesWales View Post
    I would like to see reduced inequality, greater confidence, a happier society (almost impossible to assess) a more content, less anxious society, greater health outcomes etc.
    In which way did membership of the EU prevent all of the above?

  12. #62
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    Re: 127 is the answer

    Quote Originally Posted by Taunton Blue Genie View Post
    Do you really have to descend to such language in such a debate? If you have a valid perspective why not just debate in a mature fashion?
    Meh

  13. #63

    Re: 127 is the answer

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric the Half a Bee View Post
    In which way did membership of the EU prevent all of the above?
    It didn't necessary (although for several reasons I don't think it particularly helped). Nonetheless, I was asked what would make me think leaving the EU had been to the detriment to the UK, and those are the kind of metrics I would use.

    I would say the same to assess an independent Wales, or a new Labour government or anything else. I just think they are reasonable measurements to assess, over a period of time, whether something has been a success or not.

    I'm certainly not going to come to such a radical conclusion because two months ago, I couldn't get a Tropicana with my Mcdonalds breakfast on Queen St (I did get one in the St Mary St Mcdonalds, you will be pleased to know)

  14. #64
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    Re: 127 is the answer

    Quote Originally Posted by JamesWales View Post
    I did promise you the last word, but given as you asked a fair question at the end, I'll answer that:

    Q/ What would it take for you to admit that Brexit has been to the detriment of the UK?

    A/ Economically, I will be looking to see how the UK compares vs advanced western nations in the EU (Sweden, Italy, Spain, Germany, Portugal, France, Belgium etc..broadly the eurozone) in the coming years in terms of things like GDP growth, unemployment, debt, wage growth, inflation. ie, the key economic indicators which provide the best wider picture.

    Socially, it's much harder to analyse, but I would like to see reduced inequality, greater confidence, a happier society (almost impossible to assess) a more content, less anxious society, greater health outcomes etc.

    So that's how I will assess it in quantitative and qualitative terms.

    We don't agree, but I am sure we both want more or less the same things for Wales and the UK so lets home it works out.
    About 6.40 in for Brexit.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dmVmgn5ir90&t=321s

  15. #65

    Re: 127 is the answer

    Quote Originally Posted by az city View Post
    That is interesting, and thanks for posting. But it is from 2019 and he is largely talking there about what would happen if we 'crashed out', ie left with no deal. But I don't doubt his theories, but as more and more real life economic data emerges, a clearer analysis can be built up.

    But really, I don't see much point repeating ourselves, so I will focus instead on your tea-thread.

  16. #66

    Re: 127 is the answer


    A/ Economically, I will be looking to see how the UK compares vs advanced western nations in the EU (Sweden, Italy, Spain, Germany, Portugal, France, Belgium etc..broadly the eurozone) in the coming years in terms of things like GDP growth, unemployment, debt, wage growth, inflation. ie, the key economic indicators which provide the best wider picture.

    Socially, it's much harder to analyse, but I would like to see reduced inequality, greater confidence, a happier society (almost impossible to assess) a more content, less anxious society, greater health outcomes etc.
    And how does brexit make this any easier? You must be pretty sure it will be since you voted for it and so ardantley defend it, so what evidence and facts do you have to back this up?

    Because currently all evidence points to the opposite. How long are you giving until things turn around to say that brexit is the catalyst?

    What about the other things we've lost the freedom of movement to study and work abroad?

  17. #67

    Re: 127 is the answer

    Quote Originally Posted by JamesWales View Post
    I don't anticipate any lowering of food standards. Animal welfare is anything will be enhanced if things like live animal exports are outlawed.

    Not direcltly related, but in terms of land management, I think the proposed replacement to CAP is much better.
    https://twitter.com/nowthisnews/stat...d2OzfWcvg&s=19

    90% of American chicken has white stripe disease as they've bred and bred them to grow fatter and faster that the chicks are killed after a few weeks and are not in a healthy state.
    it's very fatty and tastes of nothing
    I guess it is probably similar here but perhaps not quite as extreme.

  18. #68

    Re: 127 is the answer

    Quote Originally Posted by Croesy Blue View Post
    And how does brexit make this any easier? You must be pretty sure it will be since you voted for it and so ardantley defend it, so what evidence and facts do you have to back this up?

    Because currently all evidence points to the opposite. How long are you giving until things turn around to say that brexit is the catalyst?

    What about the other things we've lost the freedom of movement to study and work abroad?
    Your average Brexit xenophobe wouldn’t want to do that.

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