Of course Welfare has risen it rises every year Covid will create unemployment as companies seek to cut back to make up for those loses.
Thankfully the Furlough scheme has reduced that risk but in all reality it was a welfare support scheme to protect jobs as was the £20 rise in Universal Credit,school meals,business support, cut in VAT etc etc
To say Welfare has risen is madness you are right to challenge the perception it hasn't risen , it rose by 400 billion the cost of Covid .