Our defence

[Eric the Half a Bee]

While I'm not trying to take anything away from a much needed, deserved in some ways yet fortunate three points, our defence is in drastic need of help from whoever becomes our new manager.

15 games without a clean sheet isn't entirely new to us - our worst run without a clean sheet is 24 games in 1974. We've had runs of 15 or more games without a clean sheet on 15 occasions, lastly in 2016 where, between Trollope and Warnock, we went 18 games. Strangely, during some of the dire times in the 90s and in both of our Premier League seasons, we never went so long between clean sheets.

I thought I'd have a look to see how many shots we have been conceding per game and how many have resulted in goals as a result. This season we have conceded 12.2 attempts on goal per game, not our worst record in the Championship since 2014/15, though we did concede more attempts on goal per game than that in the PL.

By dividing the number of goals conceded by the number of attempts on goal we get the percentage of attempts that end up in the back of our net (or is it the front of the net?). This is our last few Championship seasons:

2021/22: 15.0%
2020/21: 9.1%
2019/20: 9.6%
2017/18: 7.5%
2016/17: 10.8%
2015/16: 8.7%
2014/15: 9.7%

Out of interest, here are our figures for our two PL seasons:

2018/19: 12.1%
2013/14: 10.7%

Thinking that 15% seems unusually high, I thought I'd look at figures for all Championship clubs over the previous 5 seasons and found that only Stoke in 2019/20 had a higher figure (15.1%). In fact, 6 of the top 10 goals conceded percentage from shots faced were during that season, presumably lockdown will have had some effect on that. There is virtually no correlation between the number of shots faced and the percentage of shots that became goals.

In short we've been conceding too many goals from the shots we've faced. Much of that recently has been down to individual mistakes and teams finding it too easy to get in behind us and get one on one with the goal keeper. Our key is to shore up our defence somehow.

[Rjk]

While I'm not trying to take anything away from a much needed, deserved in some ways yet fortunate three points, our defence is in drastic need of help from whoever becomes our new manager.

15 games without a clean sheet isn't entirely new to us - our worst run without a clean sheet is 24 games in 1974. We've had runs of 15 or more games without a clean sheet on 15 occasions, lastly in 2016 where, between Trollope and Warnock, we went 18 games. Strangely, during some of the dire times in the 90s and in both of our Premier League seasons, we never went so long between clean sheets.

I thought I'd have a look to see how many shots we have been conceding per game and how many have resulted in goals as a result. This season we have conceded 12.2 attempts on goal per game, not our worst record in the Championship since 2014/15, though we did concede more attempts on goal per game than that in the PL.

By dividing the number of goals conceded by the number of attempts on goal we get the percentage of attempts that end up in the back of our net (or is it the front of the net?). This is our last few Championship seasons:

2021/22: 15.0%
2020/21: 9.1%
2019/20: 9.6%
2017/18: 7.5%
2016/17: 10.8%
2015/16: 8.7%
2014/15: 9.7%

Out of interest, here are our figures for our two PL seasons:

2018/19: 12.1%
2013/14: 10.7%

Thinking that 15% seems unusually high, I thought I'd look at figures for all Championship clubs over the previous 5 seasons and found that only Stoke in 2019/20 had a higher figure (15.1%). In fact, 6 of the top 10 goals conceded percentage from shots faced were during that season, presumably lockdown will have had some effect on that. There is virtually no correlation between the number of shots faced and the percentage of shots that became goals.

In short we've been conceding too many goals from the shots we've faced. Much of that recently has been down to individual mistakes and teams finding it too easy to get in behind us and get one on one with the goal keeper. Our key is to shore up our defence somehow.

it usually either means we've been a bit unlucky and teams are scoring at above the expected rate against us, and they should eventually revert to a normal rate

or

we've been giving up bigger than average chances, meaning that when the opposition get in they generally have a good chance of scoring.

I suspect it's a bit of both. because we've been going behind so often and we've been trying to chase games we've been giving up big chances quite often

[RichardM]

In short we've been conceding too many goals from the shots we've faced. Much of that recently has been down to individual mistakes and teams finding it too easy to get in behind us and get one on one with the goal keeper. Our key is to shore up our defence somehow.

Much as I enjoy reading your stats, I don't think they were needed to reach that conclusion. Today's game, and many others, illustrate the point quite well.

[Eric the Half a Bee]

it usually either means we've been a bit unlucky and teams are scoring at above the expected rate against us, and they should eventually revert to a normal rate

or

we've been giving up bigger than average chances, meaning that when the opposition get in they generally have a good chance of scoring.

I suspect it's a bit of both. because we've been going behind so often and we've been trying to chase games we've been giving up big chances quite often

Last season, the teams that conceded the opening goals most often were rarely among the teams with the highest goals/shots %. In fact Forest, who had the 5th worst record for conceding the opening goal had the 3rd best goals/shots faced %.

My feeling is that we have been presenting our opponents with too many good opportunities.

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

We need our dominant ball winning centre half's......and we have 3 at least.....to become that again

All about confidence

[Eric the Half a Bee]

We need our dominant ball winning centre half's......and we have 3 at least.....to become that again

All about confidence

I'm starting to wonder whether being a Championship centreback is more than just being a ball winner. It's true that it's a rather important aspect of defending, but as the division becomes one where the ball is kept on the floor more and more each season, the skills required of centrebacks are changing as a result.

[MacAdder]

I'm starting to wonder whether being a Championship centreback is more than just being a ball winner. It's true that it's a rather important aspect of defending, but as the division becomes one where the ball is kept on the floor more and more each season, the skills required of centrebacks are changing as a result.

Absolutely they have changed.

Not just centre backs either, goalkeepers need to be good footballers.

Gone are the days of just being a clogger or a shot stopper.

The rewards of making the grade these days are the drivers for change and competition is fierce.