Crowds banned from all sporting events in Wales for foreseeable future

[xsnaggle]

Why does it have to be about whether he was right or wrong? If your huge spike doesn't materialise isn't that a good thing?

The point is that there is no evidence to suggest it will happen, so he appears to be restricting peoples freedoms and companies incomes on his opinion. Everything at the moment is suggesting that Omicron is milder, that less people are being hospitalised and less people are dying.
Another point that the people shouting for more restrictions don't mention is the difference between the number of people who have to go into hospital because of covid (Omicron) and the number of people who go in for other reasons and are then found to have it. Those people would perhaps have recovered without any need for hospitalisation but because they are in for something else they are used to inflate the apparent hospitalisation numbers caused by the virus. All very scientific.

[blue matt]

Next announcement is on Wednesday afternoon. I hope our itchy fingered 'leaders' make a more sensible judgement and allow life to carry on with common sense and not knee jerk closures.

This articles from the 'i' is quite positive

https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/ne...s-week-1364554

New restrictions in England could be avoided if hospital admissions in London do not soar this week

There are signs that Omicron cases in the capital and across the UK could be plateauing – but remain at a high level

Fresh restrictions in England after Christmas could be avoided if hospital admissions in London stay below 400 a day by the end of this week, i understands.

Ministers and scientific advisers are watching closely the number of Covid patients admitted to hospitals in the capital, as it is the leading edge of the Omicron wave and will provide some of the first real-world data on whether the variant is more severe in the UK.

The question of severity is the missing piece of the Omicron jigsaw, and Boris Johnson has been unable to make a decision about further restrictions in England without it.


The latest figure for London admissions, from last Sunday 19 December is 245, and while the daily figure is rising, it has not increased as rapidly as Covid cases in London in the past two weeks.

While the figure of 400 is not a hard and fast threshold, it will provide a good guide of whether the huge scale of Omicron cases, above 80,000 in England for the past week, will translate into hospital admissions and put severe pressure on the NHS throughout January.

If London admissions remain below 400, it could mean no legally enforced restrictions are needed after Christmas, although there could be tougher guidance announced by the Prime Minister on 27 December.

Hospital admissions in London are not the only metric being used to assess the severity of Omicron, but is a key measure.

Separately, the UK Health Security Agency will produce early data on severity, analysing vaccination status and age of people admitted to hospital with the Omicron variant, which is also expected before Christmas Eve.

However the situation is still fluid, and ministers stress that all options remain in reserve if hospitals come under serious pressure over the New Year.

New figures published by the government’s coronavirus dashboard shows how London continues to be the epicentre of the Omicron wave.

In the seven-day period up to 16 December, there were 131,061 cases in the capital, with 1455.8 cases per 100,000 people.

But some boroughs are continuing to show the highest case rates of the pandemic for younger age groups, with one in 16 people aged 25 to 29 testing positive in the week to 16 December, or 6393.5 cases per 100,000.

While hospital admissions lag cases by two to three weeks, cases in the capital started to rise rapidly at the start of December, meaning that uptick would be felt in covid wards by now.

There are currently 1,904 people with covid in London hospitals, compared to 3,367 this time a year ago.

Latest figures for the UK – including in London, which in the past week has seen the highest case rates of anywhere in the UK since the pandemic began – show signs that the Omicron wave could be plateauing.

Analysis by the UK Health Security Agency showed that, following a rapid rise in the past fortnight, the increase in cases and suspected cases of Omicron is slowing in the capital.

And across the UK daily reported cases were around 90,000 for the sixth day running – suggesting that, while infections are at a new higher level, they are not rising beyond that.

SA experts have been telling us most of that since Omicron arrived, yet we have still descended into hysteria ( mainly in the press )

the doubling every 2.5 days appears to not be happening, last week it hit 90k new cases, we should be on 360k new cases now ( and should have been over 1/2mill on Christmas Day ), yesterday it hit 100k

[Hilts]

What is the point of having a ground regulation, with a penalty of ejection from the ground for non compliance, if it isn't going to be enforced. If that was the way to get games back on again, then of course it can be done. The are security companies available with the type of staff who would be more than happy to deal with it. A better question might be why are the maskless City fans not complying in the first place. Think they are above the rules and don’t give a toss perhaps ?

Above the rules and dont give a toss perhaps.?

Now where does that ring a bell.?

[The Bloop]

The point is that there is no evidence to suggest it will happen, so he appears to be restricting peoples freedoms and companies incomes on his opinion. Everything at the moment is suggesting that Omicron is milder, that less people are being hospitalised and less people are dying.
Another point that the people shouting for more restrictions don't mention is the difference between the number of people who have to go into hospital because of covid (Omicron) and the number of people who go in for other reasons and are then found to have it. Those people would perhaps have recovered without any need for hospitalisation but because they are in for something else they are used to inflate the apparent hospitalisation numbers caused by the virus. All very scientific.

I thought restrictions were brought in because of things that could happen, based on modelling, not because they definately will. Remember it's not just about the numbers going into hospital, it's also about having the staff to treat them.

[xsnaggle]

Why does it have to be about whether he was right or wrong? If your huge spike doesn't materialise isn't that a good thing?

Sorry to bang on but.... with your point about if the spike doesn't materialise it can only be a good thing, something you may consider is that if/when these rules are imposed, if the spike doesn't materialise they Doom and Gloomers will try to say that it only didn't materialise because of the restrictions, whether that is in fact right or wrong, and then use that as an excuse to impose more restrictions and seek to impact on peoples freedoms in the future.
Some folk actually like being controlled and told what to do, it makes their lives easier.

[The Bloop]

Sorry to bang on but.... with your point about if the spike doesn't materialise it can only be a good thing, something you may consider is that if/when these rules are imposed, if the spike doesn't materialise they Doom and Gloomers will try to say that it only didn't materialise because of the restrictions, whether that is in fact right or wrong, and then use that as an excuse to impose more restrictions and seek to impact on peoples freedoms in the future.
Some folk actually like being controlled and told what to do, it makes their lives easier.

If the spike in hospitalisation doesn't materialise then it will be a combination of several factors, one of which will be the restrictions. Others being, for example, more data becoming available about Omicron being fed into the models, better treatments (including anti-virals for the most vulnerable) and more people receiving the booster vaccine(remember it doesn't start to take effect about 2 weeks after administration).

[LeningradCowboy]

If the spike in hospitalisation doesn't materialise then it will be a combination of several factors, one of which will be the restrictions. Others being, for example, more data becoming available about Omicron being fed into the models, better treatments (including anti-virals for the most vulnerable) and more people receiving the booster vaccine(remember it doesn't start to take effect about 2 weeks after administration).

What happens if the spike in infections occurs before the restrictions are introduced?

[dml1954]

Interesting but a bit technical read - The Imperial College study - confirming to me that Drakeford and his Government has ‘jumped the gun’ and got this wrong.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-globa...erity-omicron/

[dml1954]

If the spike in hospitalisation doesn't materialise then it will be a combination of several factors, one of which will be the restrictions. Others being, for example, more data becoming available about Omicron being fed into the models, better treatments (including anti-virals for the most vulnerable) and more people receiving the booster vaccine(remember it doesn't start to take effect about 2 weeks after administration).

Studies have shown that the booster dose is effective about 7 days after it is given.

[The Bloop]

What happens if the spike in infections occurs before the restrictions are introduced?

Is it even possible to know if that's happened before December 26th?

Point taken in another response as to when the booster starts to work 👍

[LeningradCowboy]

Is it even possible to know if that's happened before December 26th?

Point taken in another response as to when the booster starts to work 👍

Probably not at this point since the spike in cases would happen a few days after the spike in infections.

However, if we find out later that the restrictions were introduced after the spike in infections and there isn't a subsequent spike in hospitalisations, I don't really see how you could attribute that to the restrictions.

I'm guessing that the spike in infections will occur on Christmas Day.

[xsnaggle]

If the spike in hospitalisation doesn't materialise then it will be a combination of several factors, one of which will be the restrictions. Others being, for example, more data becoming available about Omicron being fed into the models, better treatments (including anti-virals for the most vulnerable) and more people receiving the booster vaccine(remember it doesn't start to take effect about 2 weeks after administration).

If the spike doesn't materialise it MAY be a combination, but maybe it isn't going to materialise anyway (Spike in hospitalisations and deaths that is)
More data becoming available will not be a factor in the spike not occurring, data and modelling doesn't make it happen. All new data will do is demonstrate that the original doom mongering was right or wrong, not affect the real world.

The booster vaccine is effective after 7 days apparently, but more important is that the T cell response to the virus holds up very well in the body and fights the virus very well. But this part of the vaccines and peoples immune systems was not included in the Imperial College modelling, which indicates the modelling is flawed anyway. (And it is other scientists saying that, not me )

[LeningradCowboy]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/athletics/59747123

Welsh Athletics concerns as Parkrun cancels events in Wales

[Harry Paget Flashman]

Went for a few drinks in London last Thursday. Sat outside around a few tables.

6 of the 8 now all got it. Me and one other waiting for it to kick in just as the dish washer needs loading on the 25th

[chrisp_1927]

I thought restrictions were brought in because of things that could happen, based on modelling, not because they definately will. Remember it's not just about the numbers going into hospital, it's also about having the staff to treat them.

Best thing we could do is get rid of the f@cking models, and preferably get rid of the modellers responsible for them aswell.
I'd much rather we took advice from biologists and virologists, rather than these charlatans like ferguson

[Taunton Blue Genie]

Best thing we could do is get rid of the f@cking models, and preferably get rid of the modellers responsible for them aswell.
I'd much rather we took advice from biologists and virologists, rather than these charlatans like ferguson

Aren't biologists and virologists involved in the modelling?

[Jimmy the Jock]

If Mick was still manager we could have slipped under the radar .

The football wasnt sport , it was torture.

[chrisp_1927]

Aren't biologists and virologists involved in the modelling?

Judging by some of the wild guesses that are thrown into the data I don't think they have as big a role as they should. More a jerkfest for a bunch of maths/physics nutty professors.

[delmbox]

A better question might be why are the maskless City fans not complying in the first place. Think they are above the rules and don’t give a toss perhaps ?

This + throw in some jadedness, some "well if no one else is I won't" and (from now on) some backlash from the Number 10 parties

[Dave Blue]

Since the Brexit referendum I'm convinced that Drakeford believes he heads a 'benevolent autocracy' rather than a ' democracy'. At that time the population of Wales voted to leave by a reasonable majority Did he support our decision.?..no. He told us we were wrong.

I'm seeing that same autocratic attitude again with Covid rules and regulations. He says the Senedd follows the science, and in Wales there is a technical advisory group that gives such advice. Most of their findings are openly published but nothing has been since 10th December.
So a lot of decisions by him having a profound influence on our lives and the backup evidence, if there is any, is being kept from us.
Quite concerning.

First para: Do you think a number that just about fits into the Millennium Stadium out of a whole country is a reasonable majority?
He seems to be right on this one. What are the benefits?

Second para: As I have previously said, with forecasts as they are (and sport/theatres and pubs closing on their on accord though illness) isn’t it better to be cautious than cross your fingers. This is public health, not a bet on a horse.

[nomad blue]

Everything at the moment is suggesting that Omicron is milder, that less people are being hospitalised and less people are dying.

Isn't the highlighted word above the main one, and means that until it is proven to be more than suggested, that the additional measures are the right thing to do? Plus the more prevelant it is, the more chance of it getting to people who are vulnerable.

And what about the long term effects of people who get Covid? Millions more people getting it could yet again put a massive strain on the NHS further down the line.

Doing nothing and just letting the new variant rip through the country means we end up with god knows how many NHS staff (as well as all the other service people) having to isolate, meaning even more reduction in services and even more deaths.

I couldn't care less about minor inconveniences like not being able to chat at the bar, having to order a beer from my table, or not being able to watch the game at the stadium, considering the severe stress the NHS staff have been, and are being put under, literally risking their lives, having no rest/time off, not seeing their families etc.

[dml1954]

This + throw in some jadedness, some "well if no one else is I won't" and (from now on) some backlash from the Number 10 parties

Up until a few weeks ago, no one actually knew that the so called parties had even taken place, whilst people have been ignoring the ground regulations and guidance since stadiums reopened last May.

[dml1954]

Isn't the highlighted word above the main one, and means that until it is proven to be more than suggested, that the additional measures are the right thing to do? Plus the more prevelant it is, the more chance of it getting to people who are vulnerable.

And what about the long term effects of people who get Covid? Millions more people getting it could yet again put a massive strain on the NHS further down the line.

Doing nothing and just letting the new variant rip through the country means we end up with god knows how many NHS staff (as well as all the other service people) having to isolate, meaning even more reduction in services and even more deaths.

I couldn't care less about minor inconveniences like not being able to chat at the bar, having to order a beer from my table, or not being able to watch the game at the stadium, considering the severe stress the NHS staff have been, and are being put under, literally risking their lives, having no rest/time off, not seeing their families etc.

Its a question of balance and dealing with things proportionately and in the correct order, something which Drakeford and his cronies have sadly failed at in this instance.

[dml1954]

Isn't the highlighted word above the main one, and means that until it is proven to be more than suggested, that the additional measures are the right thing to do? Plus the more prevelant it is, the more chance of it getting to people who are vulnerable.

And what about the long term effects of people who get Covid? Millions more people getting it could yet again put a massive strain on the NHS further down the line.

Doing nothing and just letting the new variant rip through the country means we end up with god knows how many NHS staff (as well as all the other service people) having to isolate, meaning even more reduction in services and even more deaths.

I couldn't care less about minor inconveniences like not being able to chat at the bar, having to order a beer from my table, or not being able to watch the game at the stadium, considering the severe stress the NHS staff have been, and are being put under, literally risking their lives, having no rest/time off, not seeing their families etc.

Those ‘minor inconveniences’ are what has kept many people going over the last two years and enabled them to get out of the house at last and forget their worries, at a time when mental stress and illness has risen dramatically.

[Dorcus]

Went for a few drinks in London last Thursday. Sat outside around a few tables.

6 of the 8 now all got it. Me and one other waiting for it to kick in just as the dish washer needs loading on the 25th

That's a sobering message, hopefully it might make some people realize caution should be the byword here. I hope you escape the bug but if you're unlucky enough to catch it I hope it's very mild in its effects.