Omicron No more than a cold ?

[MOZZER2]

Whichever government runs this country for the next 10/20 years we really need to invest in the nhs, more doctors, nurses, hospitals etc…the amount we have compared to a country like Germany is woeful…..

well another worry for the medical profession is the mandate in England that customer facing roles within the NHS will all need to be fully vaccinated by April the 1;st 2022 , Depending on the news outlet you read currently that stands at between 80,000 to 120,000 front line NHS staff in England .Not sure that applies in Wales at the minute ?

[Citizen's Nephew]

I am just pointing out that there are two fundamental unknowns at the moment: Omicron's transmissibility and severity. I know epidemiologists are struggling to figure out how many severe cases (requiring hospitalization) are likely to present in the near future based on those two factors.

If you like things in terms of numbers take a group of 100 people. (Ignore the following if you already get this.)

Suppose, just for illustration, Delta caused 20 infections next week and 1 in 20 Delta infections is severe. We'd have 1 ill person from the group of 100.

Now suppose Omicron caused 60 infections next week but only 1 in 30 cases with Omicron are severe. We'd still have 2 cases in the 100. Things would be worse.

I get it and it's exactly right. I'd like to think there was an algorithm that our leaders have at their disposal that translates these hypotheses into logistics/resource management data before they make decisions. I do know, from speaking to the medical staff at UHW that there is misinformation regarding the effect of Covid on resources right now and that various directives issues are diverting staff from key specialties to frontline A&E for minimal gain.

[Tuerto]

The Statens Serum Institut is legit. Are their figures quoted in the piece fictitious?

I have looked at the figures and struggled to work them out in all honesty. Denmark has seen a rise in Omicron, that's for sure, although only 1 in 4 have had their booster jab, and according to an Article in the Washington Post, those who have had the booster jab are less likely to get the Omicron variant.

[life on mars]

Legacy decesions perhaps??


"" 2015 eport found that all four nations made major improvements in their NHS during the 2000s, and no one country was consistently ahead or lagging behind the others.

However, while health spending slowed since 2010 in all countries, Wales was the only place to reduce its health budget in real terms.*Health*spending in Wales fell by 4.3% between 2009/10 and 2012/13. But ministers agreed to put in more money during 2014-15 and 2015-16 in order to reverse this trend.""

Mr Drakeford was Health Minister

[Whisperer]

I have looked at the figures and struggled to work them out in all honesty. Denmark has seen a rise in Omicron, that's for sure, although only 1 in 4 have had their booster jab, and according to an Article in the Washington Post, those who have had the booster jab are less likely to get the Omicron variant.

In my household - My son is double jabbed (got Covid) Me and the Mrs triple jabbed all clear. So Far.

[Citizen's Nephew]

Regarding Omicron Denmark currently has one of the top infection rates in the world and the second highest Omicron rate in Europe, behind the U.K., which has similar vaccination levels and an even higher booster rate.

The double-vaccinated accounted for more than 14,000 of 17,767 Omicron infections recorded in Denmark since the country’s first reported case on November 22.

looking at stats from denmark looks grim reading when it comes to seeing how effective vaccines are . see reports

https://www.lifesitenews.com/news/sh...re-vaccinated/

https://meaninginhistory.substack.co...micron-telling

But if you're vaccinated in order to protect you from a virus (any virus) do you in all honesty expect to never contract that virus or do you expect to have greater protection and immunity which reduces the likelihood of serious illness? If it's the former, then that's not how immune systems work and it's wrong to just focus on the numbers of vaccinated positives which is where there's a lot of confusion.

[Tuerto]

But if you're vaccinated in order to protect you from a virus (any virus) do you in all honesty expect to never contract that virus or do you expect to have greater protection and immunity which reduces the likelihood of serious illness? If it's the former, then that's not how immune systems work and it's wrong to just focus on the numbers of vaccinated positives which is where there's a lot of confusion.

That's the way i see it from what i have read and with my ability to understand the information at hand. The Vaccination is not a cure, it doesn't mean that we wont still catch Covid in whatever form it is. What it does mean is that with a Vaccination we are more protected from serious illness, and with the booster, it gives us even more protection. That's my take on it.

[Citizen's Nephew]

That's the way i see it from what i have read and with my ability to understand the information at hand. The Vaccination is not a cure, it doesn't mean that we wont still catch Covid in whatever form it is. What it does mean is that with a Vaccination we are more protected from serious illness, and with the booster, it gives us even more protection. That's my take on it.

The problem arises with variants as in the case of Covid 19 and the need for boosters as in seasonal flu jabs. Rapidly mutating viruses like Covid are going to require regular boosters. This feeds into the planning of resources stuff I was talking about earlier. We're not doing it. Where's the money going to come from? Will boosters continue to be free (I cannot see how they can be). What's the plan for a more virulent variant? It's about time politicians i.e. governments started dealing with this. We have supply chain issues now, distribution problems now. Focusing on the vaccine and one area of healthcare support i.e. Covid is not enough. Serious logistical problems have to be resolved if we're going to live with this and keep the economy going from healthcare staff to the HGV drivers delivering medications.

I'm already seeing shortages of key medications and supply chain problems in pharma manufacturing (and yes, a lot of it is down to Brexit). I stay up-to-date even though I'm not on the frontline supply chain anymore.

[goats]

I have looked at the figures and struggled to work them out in all honesty. Denmark has seen a rise in Omicron, that's for sure, although only 1 in 4 have had their booster jab, and according to an Article in the Washington Post, those who have had the booster jab are less likely to get the Omicron variant.

But if symptoms are mild anyway, does it matter if they’ve had any jab with omicron? Does it mainly infect vaccinated people or is that just playing out in % of the population anyway?

[MOZZER2]

This virus hits different people in different ways.
My daughter and I had covin last Jan - I thought it was just a winter cold, my daughter had it only slightly worse.
But her boyfriend also had it, and started to have trouble breathing, was on the verge of going into hospital before he started recovering.
There were a load of hospital admissions back then and deaths were mounting up.
Yes, the omicron mutation appears to be less serious, but people have died with it.
But while seemingly having less serious symptoms, it seems to be far more transmittable - and a high trandmission rate means it is more likely to mutate further - into what? 80% fatality maybe?
We'd all be thanking Duckford for his cautious approach then.
We need EVERYBODY to get vaccinated to stop this- and that means "third world" countries, as well as the UK, or further mutations are inevitable, and one of those mutations could be the nightmare that effectively ends civilisation.


Rant over.

yes i agree effects people in different ways

I had it last month and luckily had sod all wrong with me just aching limbs for 1 day a bit sleepy and a slight sore throat . had to isolate for 10 days and didn't see a single soul for 12 days . Not complaining as lots of people have it alot worse

as for everyone to get vaccinated worldwide i feel thats a tall order but to say to end civilisation is a bit extreme .

There are some countries dealing with it better than others check out Japan for example

The biggest cruise ship in the world royal caribbean grandeur a few days ago had 55 cases of covid on board out of a total of fully vaccinated 6,000 people according to the cruise line .

How can a fully vaccinated population get any covid positives if everyone on board is vaccinated and tested before boarding ? I don't get it

i won't post a link as i will get accused of all sorts . google it yourself

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

This virus has shown that there are a lot of idiots out there

The Scientists are doing their best on available date to deal with things and suggest public health steps

We had no idea omicron was going to be possibly weak so yah boo socks to people whingeing about boosters and restrictions

If a highly qualified scientist or doctor on available data says we have something nasty coming , it's mutating , get prepared then the wise thing to do is get prepared

Not ponce about on Facebook complaining if it's a false alarm

We havnt cured cancer yet but we save many more lives these days

Or we could go back to dancing around a fire 🔥

[blue matt]

We had no idea omicron was going to be possibly weak so yah boo socks to people whingeing about boosters and restrictions

The Scientists / medical professionals were telling the world that Omicron was weaker that previous variants, this was 2 weeks ago now

[Citizen's Nephew]

yes i agree effects people in different ways

I had it last month and luckily had sod all wrong with me just aching limbs for 1 day a bit sleepy and a slight sore throat . had to isolate for 10 days and didn't see a single soul for 12 days . Not complaining as lots of people have it alot worse

as for everyone to get vaccinated worldwide i feel thats a tall order but to say to end civilisation is a bit extreme .

There are some countries dealing with it better than others check out Japan for example

The biggest cruise ship in the world royal caribbean grandeur a few days ago had 55 cases of covid on board out of a total of fully vaccinated 6,000 people according to the cruise line .

How can a fully vaccinated population get any covid positives if everyone on board is vaccinated and tested before boarding ? I don't get it

i won't post a link as i will get accused of all sorts . google it yourself

That's approx. 0.9% of the ship's pop. which is actually really good for something that isn't a clinical trial, uncontrolled, and where people can lie. Plus, you'd need to factor in false +ves & false -ves if they're using LF tests. Increase those figures by log factors and if that was the UK pop of say approx. 60M then that's only around 540,000 +ves. You're actually arguing FOR vaccination without realising it. Expand those figures further to the number of likely fatalities and the figures are even better. Conclusion = vaccinations good.

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

The Scientists / medical professionals were telling the world that Omicron was weaker that previous variants, this was 2 weeks ago now

But extremely virulent and could have caused public health services to be even more swamped than they already are

[Harry Paget Flashman]

The Scientists / medical professionals were telling the world that Omicron was weaker that previous variants, this was 2 weeks ago now

And one of my friends father is in hospital on a ventilator with it and four of my youngish (30 - 45) friends are rough with it.

What do you do?

The leaders of the country are damned if they prepare for the worse or damned if they do nothing.

Personally I'd rather overprepare and save one life than under prepare and lose lots.

[blue matt]

We had no idea omicron was going to be possibly weak so yah boo socks to people whingeing about boosters and restrictions

But extremely virulent and could have caused public health services to be even more swamped than they already are

yes they said it had a higher transmission rate , but was weaker than previous variants ( Delta )

[MOZZER2]

That's approx. 0.9% of the ship's pop. which is actually really good for something that isn't a clinical trial, uncontrolled, and where people can lie. Plus, you'd need to factor in false +ves & false -ves if they're using LF tests. Increase those figures by log factors and if that was the UK pop of say approx. 60M then that's only around 540,000 +ves. You're actually arguing FOR vaccination without realising it. Expand those figures further to the number of likely fatalities and the figures are even better. Conclusion = vaccinations good.

thanks for response citizen .

the only take on that how the hell can anyone lie about boarding a ship without a PCR test and fully jabbed ? The protocols wouldn't allow that

In terms of language used i would expect 100 per cent yield going in and 100 per cent yield coming out which in terms of six sigma is 3.4 defects per 1 million opportunities

A six sigma process is one in which 99.99966% of all opportunities to produce some feature of a part are statistically expected to be free of defects a defined measurement used in engineering

lets hope its a good vaccine !

[blue matt]

And one of my friends father is in hospital on a ventilator with it and four of my youngish (30 - 45) friends are rough with it.

What do you do?

The leaders of the country are damned if they prepare for the worse or damned if they do nothing.

Personally I'd rather overprepare and save one life than under prepare and lose lots.

Good luck to them, its not a decision I would want to be making, you make the right call 20 times and its expected as you are s.posed to protect the country, make one wrong call and you that is what will define the whole time

[Harry Paget Flashman]

Good luck to them, its not a decision I would want to be making, you make the right call 20 times and its expected as you are s.posed to protect the country, make one wrong call and you that is what will define the whole time

I'm just amazed at the amount of Phd's are held by people on football massage boards and how much access to data they have.

You'd swear that every mechanic, bus driver and button monkey is worth listening too.

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

I'm just amazed at the amount of Phd's are held by people on football massage boards and how much access to data they have.

You'd swear that every mechanic, bus driver and button monkey is worth listening too.

Facebook , twitter , local Facebook hubs , Wales online

It's bring out the dead time on these places

Darwin has not arrived for some

[Citizen's Nephew]

thanks for response citizen .

the only take on that how the hell can anyone lie about boarding a ship without a PCR test and fully jabbed ? The protocols wouldn't allow that

In terms of language used i would expect 100 per cent yield going in and 100 per cent yield coming out which in terms of six sigma is 3.4 defects per 1 million opportunities

A six sigma process is one in which 99.99966% of all opportunities to produce some feature of a part are statistically expected to be free of defects a defined measurement used in engineering

lets hope its a good vaccine !

Hey Moz, I do understand the confusion. I don't know the answer as to how people could lie in this scenario, but it has to factored in. Maybe the ship's cat brought it onboard? I'm joking. But you can't extrapolate the precision data from an unprecise trial. 100% yields can't really apply to efficacy i.e. the efficacy of the vaccine. For example, some of those vaccines will fall within an efficacy/potency level and some will fall outside. I'd have to look at Pharmacopeia guidelines to check levels for these but they will exist and won't be of the engineering levels of defects. Then, for example, someone may have had a vaccine, it's been recorded as them having a vaccine, but they didn't get the full dose because of whatever factors contributed to that. These are small but not impossible.

In a controlled clinical trial, everything would be checked, cross-checked, blind, double blind, whatever but most importantly, those clinical subjects wouldn't be allowed out of sight. Everything would be monitored. I get the free of defects analogy but that only applies to the syringe and needle, not the vaccine itself, and certainly not when it comes to the diversity of physiology. Does that make sense? I'm doing this really quickly and can continue tomorrow.

[MOZZER2]

Hey Moz, I do understand the confusion. I don't know the answer as to how people could lie in this scenario, but it has to factored in. Maybe the ship's cat brought it onboard? I'm joking. But you can't extrapolate the precision data from an unprecise trial. 100% yields can't really apply to efficacy i.e. the efficacy of the vaccine. For example, some of those vaccines will fall within an efficacy/potency level and some will fall outside. I'd have to look at Pharmacopeia guidelines to check levels for these but they will exist and won't be of the engineering levels of defects. Then, for example, someone may have had a vaccine, it's been recorded as them having a vaccine, but they didn't get the full dose because of whatever factors contributed to that. These are small but not impossible.

In a controlled clinical trial, everything would be checked, cross-checked, blind, double blind, whatever but most importantly, those clinical subjects wouldn't be allowed out of sight. Everything would be monitored. I get the free of defects analogy but that only applies to the syringe and needle, not the vaccine itself, and certainly not when it comes to the diversity of physiology. Does that make sense? I'm doing this really quickly and can continue tomorrow.

No i don't agree with that citizen so many flaws with your answers

As its xmas I am chilling out now and will glady oblige with having a good debate after xmas.

lets hope everyone on here on stays safe all over the xmas period and beyond

[splott parker]

When we get the news that there’s 100,000 new cases today, why can’t we get the news that 75,000 recovered yesterday? The ‘new’ cases haven’t got it forever, or have I got it wrong?

[Cyclops]

This guy called it right three weeks ago.. ago

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ls7z...r.JohnCampbell

He also said it was good so many would be affected albeit mildly as immunity would be increased and this might even knock Covid on the head

[Citizen's Nephew]

This guy called it right three weeks ago.. ago

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ls7z...r.JohnCampbell

He also said it was good so many would be affected albeit mildly as immunity would be increased and this might even knock Covid on the head

I like John Cambell's videos and delivery. Yup, this was highlighted weeks ago. He's right about panic mode. In my view our current restrictions are entirely down to the lack of planning and resources required to stop health services from becoming overwhelmed. That sounds reasonable until it's highlighted that before Covid 19 they were run into the ground and two years on we are in a worse situation in terms of staff and resources. That's outrageous. If the opposition or any politician can't work with that scenario, then there's no hope.

Anyway, as Moz said earlier, time to chill and snaffle a mince pie or two if I can get Mrs Citizen to do some more baking after she's done the washing up and ironed my newspaper.