Devolution Wales v Scotland/NI

[JamesWales]

It's difficult to practice what you preach isn't it Mr. J? Acceptance is a bitch!

I fully accept it! I'm not trying to overturn the last senedd election result.

I do think we have had an elected government in Wales for 23 years though (and I've had many dealings with them) and they should take some responsibility for the state of Wales, both good and bad.

[az city]

That is a valid point about Ireland. However it took Ireland about 80 years to overtake the UK. So maybe it will benefit out great great great grandkids.

I'm not anti devolution at all. I think English regions should get more powers too, but I think the economic arguments for independence are very weak. Whatever they are however, it most definitely is not a 'no brainer' in any direction of argument.

80 years? Come off it. Fantasy again. Ireland joined the EU in 1974 I believe. There's a pretty decent case to be made that 1974 would be the date on which Ireland's economy started to speed up to eventually zoom past jolly old England's.

It seems a perfect role model for Wales. Facing an economic catastrophe conjoined with Brexit England versus independence within the EU is no dilemma. Choosing the latter is a no brainer.

[Wozza16]

Anti devolution/independence people say the Welsh economy is too weak, poor, lacking any meaningful industry to go it alone or have more devolution etc. If that is true then what the hell is the point of being in this 'great' union for the past 500 years?

Being in the UK has hardly got us into such a powerful and affluent position that we would be crazy to at least look and consider any other options. More devolution for me, to at least match Scotland and N.I, and urgently.

[JamesWales]

80 years? Come off it. Fantasy again. Ireland joined the EU in 1974 I believe. There's a pretty decent case to be made that 1974 would be the date on which Ireland's economy started to speed up to eventually zoom past jolly old England's.

It seems a perfect role model for Wales. Facing an economic catastrophe conjoined with Brexit England versus independence within the EU is no dilemma. Choosing the latter is a no brainer.

You are a bizarre man a sometimes and a bit of a gaslighter tbh. How can you label what I said 'fantasy' when the Irish free state was created in 1922 and their GDP per capita overtook the UK in the mid 1990s? By almost any definition going what I said is correct.

And then you go on to use hyperbolic language like 'catastrophe' (with zero evidence) and present a solution that is a 'no brainer' as if there is universal agreement that Wales would be wealthier under independence, which there certainly isn't.

Mad.

[Eric the Half a Bee]

You are a bizarre man a sometimes and a bit of a gaslighter tbh. How can you label what I said 'fantasy' when the Irish free state was created in 1922 and their GDP per capita overtook the UK in the mid 1990s? By almost any definition going what I said is correct.

And then you go on to use hyperbolic language like 'catastrophe' (with zero evidence) and present a solution that is a 'no brainer' as if there is universal agreement that Wales would be wealthier under independence, which there certainly isn't.

Mad.

Out of interest, how much does the UK's superior GDP help Wales? You could also ask the same question of similar areas in England. Does the UK's large economy help all parts of the UK or does it mainly help those more affluent areas, rivers flowing into the sea etc.

[JamesWales]

Out of interest, how much does the UK's superior GDP help Wales? You could also ask the same question of similar areas in England. Does the UK's large economy help all parts of the UK or does it mainly help those more affluent areas, rivers flowing into the sea etc.

I dont subscribe to the idea that Wales should stay part of the UK because of the size of the British economy. I dont think that does any harm, but size of a country, or its economy doesnt necessarily mean it will be wealthy. In fact, there is almost no relationship to size at all, and countries like Estonia, Lithuania etc obviously flourished despite ceasing to be part of a much larger nation state. There's some complications now with the UK not being in the EU, as our economy is almost totally intertwined with Englands, but generally speaking I do not think Wales couldn't succeed because we are small

The UK however does have a much higher GDP per capita an that means that Wales is supported disproportionate to the amount we put in, and I think it's a huge risk to change that. Our GDP per capita is about a third of the UK average. Independence would bring about a huge funding gap in how services are provided. In time it would be overcome, but it's an enormous risk and what policies would we have to make us so appealing?

All that said, I recognise that being pretty much the poorest part of the UK is also an argument that could be used as a reason to leave, ie - 'what good has it done us?' etc.

I'm generally (and identity wise) against Independence, but I'm open minded on it, I just think the economic arguments are weak and need a lot of work. Certainly, it isn't a no brainer in any direction and no one should suggest it is.

[az city]

You are a bizarre man a sometimes and a bit of a gaslighter tbh. How can you label what I said 'fantasy' when the Irish free state was created in 1922 and their GDP per capita overtook the UK in the mid 1990s? By almost any definition going what I said is correct.

And then you go on to use hyperbolic language like 'catastrophe' (with zero evidence) and present a solution that is a 'no brainer' as if there is universal agreement that Wales would be wealthier under independence, which there certainly isn't.

Mad.

So you're saying as soon as Ireland became an independent state its growth rate immediately started to outpace England's. Perfect case for Wales to break free from the English Brexit Catastrophe.

[az city]

I dont subscribe to the idea that Wales should stay part of the UK because of the size of the British economy. I dont think that does any harm, but size of a country, or its economy doesnt necessarily mean it will be wealthy. In fact, there is almost no relationship to size at all, and countries like Estonia, Lithuania etc obviously flourished despite ceasing to be part of a much larger nation state. There's some complications now with the UK not being in the EU, as our economy is almost totally intertwined with Englands, but generally speaking I do not think Wales couldn't succeed because we are small

The UK however does have a much higher GDP per capita an that means that Wales is supported disproportionate to the amount we put in, and I think it's a huge risk to change that. Our GDP per capita is about a third of the UK average. Independence would bring about a huge funding gap in how services are provided. In time it would be overcome, but it's an enormous risk and what policies would we have to make us so appealing?

All that said, I recognise that being pretty much the poorest part of the UK is also an argument that could be used as a reason to leave, ie - 'what good has it done us?' etc.

I'm generally (and identity wise) against Independence, but I'm open minded on it, I just think the economic arguments are weak and need a lot of work. Certainly, it isn't a no brainer in any direction and no one should suggest it is.

You really don't see the wood from the trees do you?

The UK, as its currently composed, has a huge issue with a SE finance sector-derived form of the Dutch Disease. It operates to severely disadvantage Wales, Scotland, Northern Ireland and indeed huge swathes of the North of England. An independent Wales trading within the EU would shed itself of this anchor.

[JamesWales]

So you're saying as soon as Ireland became an independent state its growth rate immediately started to outpace England's. Perfect case for Wales to break free from the English Brexit Catastrophe.

No, thats not what I've said at all

I said it took (southern) Ireland 80 years to overtake the UK economically. Which, by almost any measurement, give or take a few years, is true. You said that was 'fantasy', but it isn't, it's the truth.

You sound more like a preacher predicting the end of the world. If you are going to label things 'catastrophic' you really should have evidence to back up such language, but you never present any.

You can think Cardiff are top of the league if you like, but the league table suggests otherwise.

[Rjk]

No, thats not what I've said at all

I said it took (southern) Ireland 80 years to overtake the UK economically. Which, by almost any measurement, give or take a few years, is true. You said that was 'fantasy', but it isn't, it's the truth.

You sound more like a preacher predicting the end of the world. If you are going to label things 'catastrophic' you really should have evidence to back up such language, but you never present any.

You can think Cardiff are top of the league if you like, but the league table suggests otherwise.

And if it had stayed in the UK it would have remained the poorest part of the UK.
So if it worked for Ireland, why could it not work for us?

[JamesWales]

You really don't see the wood from the trees do you?

The UK, as its currently composed, has a huge issue with a SE finance sector-derived form of the Dutch Disease. It operates to severely disadvantage Wales, Scotland, Northern Ireland and indeed huge swathes of the North of England. An independent Wales trading within the EU would shed itself of this anchor.

I wholly agree that the UK is too focused on the south east, and unlike most countries we dont have enough different power bases. That the UK is too focused on arguably the most successul city on earth (London & SE) doesnt mean that leaving the UK helps Wales though. It may mean we dont benefit from the fruits of that success.

Scotlands economy is nothing like Wales btw, and its GDP per capita is basically in line with the UK average and it's above most English regions.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/...ead-by-region/

[JamesWales]

And if it had stayed in the UK it would have remained the poorest part of the UK.
So if it worked for Ireland, why could it not work for us?

I never said it wouldn't. I said it took 80 years for Ireland, and for much of that time it was significantly poorer.

Independence may be good for Wales. I think it wouldn't, especially initially and I struggle to see evidence for that, but I recognise it could be. It's not me being absolute here. It's not me claiming these things are a no brainer.

The fundamental weaknesses in the Welsh economy are not caused by being part of the UK.

[az city]

I wholly agree that the UK is too focused on the south east, and unlike most countries we dont have enough different power bases. That the UK is too focused on arguably the most successul city on earth (London & SE) doesnt mean that leaving the UK helps Wales though. It may mean we dont benefit from the fruits of that success.

Scotlands economy is nothing like Wales btw, and its GDP per capita is basically in line with the UK average and it's above most English regions.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/...ead-by-region/

Please do some research before posting if you want to be taken seriously. The Dutch Disease is a structural economy-wide problem not a problem associated with regional imbalance.

You really want to offer up Scotland as a counter argument? Did you know Scotland had a lot of oil and natural gas? I think you'll find most Scots think they got a very, very rough deal from the English with regards to the sharing of the benefits of Scotland's natural resources. The counterfactual is surely where would Scotland be now if it had fully the reaped the benefits of its own natural resources. "Norway", "sovereign wealth fund" - ring any bells.

[az city]

I never said it wouldn't. I said it took 80 years for Ireland, and for much of that time it was significantly poorer.

Independence may be good for Wales. I think it wouldn't, especially initially and I struggle to see evidence for that, but I recognise it could be. It's not me being absolute here. It's not me claiming these things are a no brainer.

The fundamental weaknesses in the Welsh economy are not caused by being part of the UK.

How exactly are you seeking evidence on the effects of an event that hasn't happened (Welsh independence)? Bonkers.

Conjecture, which you love btw, is not "evidence".

[JamesWales]

How exactly are you seeking evidence on the effects of an event that hasn't happened (Welsh independence)? Bonkers.

Conjecture, which you love btw, is not "evidence".

Fair point. I struggle to see strong arguments for it, is what I should say.

The evidence is what you should be able to provide when you label things catastrophic..

[NYCBlue]

I dont subscribe to the idea that Wales should stay part of the UK because of the size of the British economy. I dont think that does any harm, but size of a country, or its economy doesnt necessarily mean it will be wealthy. In fact, there is almost no relationship to size at all, and countries like Estonia, Lithuania etc obviously flourished despite ceasing to be part of a much larger nation state. There's some complications now with the UK not being in the EU, as our economy is almost totally intertwined with Englands, but generally speaking I do not think Wales couldn't succeed because we are small

The UK however does have a much higher GDP per capita an that means that Wales is supported disproportionate to the amount we put in, and I think it's a huge risk to change that. Our GDP per capita is about a third of the UK average. Independence would bring about a huge funding gap in how services are provided. In time it would be overcome, but it's an enormous risk and what policies would we have to make us so appealing?

All that said, I recognise that being pretty much the poorest part of the UK is also an argument that could be used as a reason to leave, ie - 'what good has it done us?' etc.

I'm generally (and identity wise) against Independence, but I'm open minded on it, I just think the economic arguments are weak and need a lot of work. Certainly, it isn't a no brainer in any direction and no one should suggest it is.

Most independent economists agree that leaving the EU has had and will continue to have and negative impact on Britain. How is not a no brainer to leave them behind and take advantage of that? It would get their foot off our necks for start. It would end what is essentially minority rule in Wales. And our culture would remain intact. We would be supported.

[AfricanBluebird]

Most independent economists agree that leaving the EU has had and will continue to have and negative impact on Britain. How is not a no brainer to leave them behind and take advantage of that? It would get their foot off our necks for start. It would end what is essentially minority rule in Wales. And our culture would remain intact. We would be supported.

Ironically, if Wales ever gain independence, and I think we will at some stage, then the kind of deal we would be seeking with England, NI and Scotland would be similar to the deal the UK had with the EU, certainly for freedom of movement, zero tariffs and shared standards.

Whether Wales would want to rejoin the EU as an independent nation, well that would be well within our rights and something that the people of Wales would decide at that time.

Ultimately I don't think we are quite there with being able to convince enough people (in Wales) that Wales can thrive better being an independent nation... But I think it's a growing conversation young people are having.

[AfricanBluebird]

80 years? Come off it. Fantasy again. Ireland joined the EU in 1974 I believe. There's a pretty decent case to be made that 1974 would be the date on which Ireland's economy started to speed up to eventually zoom past jolly old England's.

It seems a perfect role model for Wales. Facing an economic catastrophe conjoined with Brexit England versus independence within the EU is no dilemma. Choosing the latter is a no brainer.

There are a lot of countries throughout Europe who gave gained independence in the last 50 years who have developed significantly, in terms of economics, development and social welfare reforms. Them joining the EU has helped them tremendously. I do have some issues with the EU, but for Wales, it was significantly beneficial being part of the EU than what we have now .... Out of the EU and a Westminster government who despise Wales.

[Wozza16]

Our Siân is behind the wheel! The petition has picked up a bit of momentum the last week or so

https://nation.cymru/news/weather-re...estate-profit/