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Thread: Covid Rates in Wales - have the greater restrictions worked at all?

  1. #1

    Covid Rates in Wales - have the greater restrictions worked at all?

    Wales has 5% of the UK population and today we had 8% of the UK's Covid cases. Yesterday was similar.

    Some stats are sometimes below 5% and there's a way to go yet etc, but...

    Is there any firm evidence that the restrictions imposed in Wales have worked at all? Have they actually "kept Wales safe"? England had a more liberal approach and it doesn't seem to have made their cases worse.

    Scotland 11,827
    Wales 11,693
    Northern Ireland 2,706
    England 115,998
    UK 142,224
    https://twitter.com/UKCovid19Stats

  2. #2

    Re: Covid Rates in Wales - have the greater restrictions worked at all?

    There’s a graph on the main covid thread saying that in ratio recently England has had nigh on double the hospital admissions with covid than Wales. I’d imagine hospital admissions are the main factor rather than the number of run of the mill positive tests.

  3. #3

    Re: Covid Rates in Wales - have the greater restrictions worked at all?

    Mark Drakeford presented a model at his briefing on Friday saying he expect them to continue to rise for the next few weeks.

    It is looking increasingly likely that is not going to happen which is good news

    Cases at this stage shouldn’t be a benchmark unless it’s correlated with the number of tests carried out.

  4. #4

    Re: Covid Rates in Wales - have the greater restrictions worked at all?

    Quote Originally Posted by JamesWales View Post
    Wales has 5% of the UK population and today we had 8% of the UK's Covid cases. Yesterday was similar.

    Some stats are sometimes below 5% and there's a way to go yet etc, but...

    Is there any firm evidence that the restrictions imposed in Wales have worked at all? Have they actually "kept Wales safe"? England had a more liberal approach and it doesn't seem to have made their cases worse.

    Scotland 11,827
    Wales 11,693
    Northern Ireland 2,706
    England 115,998
    UK 142,224
    https://twitter.com/UKCovid19Stats
    Jimbo, don't go there on this. You're going to get slaughtered.

    There is no way of scientifically (statistically) testing this. Basically, there are too many variables and too much missing data across the two countries.

    Personally, I commend Wales' cautious approach. At least Wales can say it tried to mitigate the impacts of Covid 19.

  5. #5

    Re: Covid Rates in Wales - have the greater restrictions worked at all?

    The ONS published their extrapolated data that showed a week ago that 1 in 15 people in England had covid, whereas in Wales and Scotland it was 1 in 20.
    There's too many variables to make conclusions from 1 set of data. For example, school children are testing 3 times a week in Wales, but twice in England.
    Also, there's no mention of whether the Welsh or English numbers include people who tested positive after watching a football match in Chester 😁

  6. #6

    Re: Covid Rates in Wales - have the greater restrictions worked at all?

    Quote Originally Posted by splott parker View Post
    There’s a graph on the main covid thread saying that in ratio recently England has had nigh on double the hospital admissions with covid than Wales. I’d imagine hospital admissions are the main factor rather than the number of run of the mill positive tests.
    This is the link to the graph you refer to:
    https://www.ccmb.co.uk/attachment.ph...3&d=1641824467

    Looks pretty convincing.

  7. #7

    Re: Covid Rates in Wales - have the greater restrictions worked at all?

    Quote Originally Posted by az city View Post
    Jimbo, don't go there on this. You're going to get slaughtered.

    There is no way of scientifically (statistically) testing this. Basically, there are too many variables and too much missing data across the two countries.

    Personally, I commend Wales' cautious approach. At least Wales can say it tried to mitigate the impacts of Covid 19.
    There's loads of data out there! And people are free to present it! The array of variables goes without saying, but I would suggest there are less variables on this topic than most.

    It's a fair question to ask whether these restrictions, on balance, are working.

  8. #8

    Re: Covid Rates in Wales - have the greater restrictions worked at all?

    I don't think it is possible to disagree with the hospital admissions data is it? Maybe you could argue that you have to be on death's door to be admitted into hospital in Wales whereas in England they are a bit more compassionate?

  9. #9

    Re: Covid Rates in Wales - have the greater restrictions worked at all?

    The answer to the question is almost certainly yes.

    How do you prove it though.?

  10. #10

    Re: Covid Rates in Wales - have the greater restrictions worked at all?

    Quote Originally Posted by Gofer Blue View Post
    I don't think it is possible to disagree with the hospital admissions data is it? Maybe you could argue that you have to be on death's door to be admitted into hospital in Wales whereas in England they are a bit more compassionate?
    There is a variable with hospitalisations also. Up to half of current cases in Wales were admitted to hospital with something else and caught Covid in hospital.Mark Drakeford mentioned this.

    Thatís the problem there is so much data, you can make an argument either way.

  11. #11

    Re: Covid Rates in Wales - have the greater restrictions worked at all?

    Cases are a pretty rubbish measure. Did Wales do 5% of the tests in the UK? Or 10%? Or 2% or 15%? Etc. The best numbers to measure are hospitalisations and deaths.

  12. #12

    Re: Covid Rates in Wales - have the greater restrictions worked at all?

    Quote Originally Posted by Canton Kev View Post
    Cases are a pretty rubbish measure. Did Wales do 5% of the tests in the UK? Or 10%? Or 2% or 15%? Etc. The best numbers to measure are hospitalisations and deaths.

  13. #13

    Re: Covid Rates in Wales - have the greater restrictions worked at all?

    Quote Originally Posted by TWGL1 View Post
    There is a variable with hospitalisations also. Up to half of current cases in Wales were admitted to hospital with something else and caught Covid in hospital.Mark Drakeford mentioned this.

    That’s the problem there is so much data, you can make an argument either way.
    Yeah that’s a big one. I love the way I can’t go and sit outside and watch a football match but the wife can go and do a workout class in an unventilated room with 40 other women all jumping about for an hour….just makes perfect sense

  14. #14

    Re: Covid Rates in Wales - have the greater restrictions worked at all?

    Quote Originally Posted by Hilts View Post
    The answer to the question is almost certainly yes.

    How do you prove it though.?
    How is Bristol doing better than cardiff then? No one seems to be able to answer it and omicron landed in both cities about the same time

  15. #15

    Re: Covid Rates in Wales - have the greater restrictions worked at all?

    Quote Originally Posted by Canton Kev View Post
    Cases are a pretty rubbish measure. Did Wales do 5% of the tests in the UK? Or 10%? Or 2% or 15%? Etc. The best numbers to measure are hospitalisations and deaths.
    I agree, hospitalisations and deaths are what matters most...

    But...

    The point of stopping us going to the football, the bar, making us WFH etc etc is to stop the spread.

    England has been more liberal and it potentially doesn't seem to have made much difference.

  16. #16

    Re: Covid Rates in Wales - have the greater restrictions worked at all?

    Quote Originally Posted by JamesWales View Post
    I agree, hospitalisations and deaths are what matters most...

    But...

    The point of stopping us going to the football, the bar, making us WFH etc etc is to stop the spread.

    England has been more liberal and it potentially doesn't seem to have made much difference.
    Because you’re using the wrong metric.... If you can find hospitalisations and deaths for England and they don’t differ from Wales then you might have a point. I’m not gonna go looking for you, it’s your thread.

  17. #17

    Re: Covid Rates in Wales - have the greater restrictions worked at all?

    Quote Originally Posted by JamesWales View Post
    I agree, hospitalisations and deaths are what matters most...

    But...

    The point of stopping us going to the football, the bar, making us WFH etc etc is to stop the spread.

    England has been more liberal and it potentially doesn't seem to have made much difference.
    If you look at Sweden the answer would be to follow them, but nobody ever mentions them. Yes itís a large unpopulated country but many of the cities populations per sq KM is similar to Wales 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿

  18. #18

    Re: Covid Rates in Wales - have the greater restrictions worked at all?

    Quote Originally Posted by JamesWales View Post
    I agree, hospitalisations and deaths are what matters most...

    But...

    England has been more liberal and it potentially doesn't seem to have made much difference.
    England does not include reinfections in its daily totals. Wales does.

    I also read on the weekend that thereís a backlog of data to be uploaded to the English numbers. No idea if the latter is true.

  19. #19

    Re: Covid Rates in Wales - have the greater restrictions worked at all?

    Quote Originally Posted by Canton Kev View Post
    Because you’re using the wrong metric.... If you can find hospitalisations and deaths for England and they don’t differ from Wales then you might have a point. I’m not gonna go looking for you, it’s your thread.
    Here is England ��������������

    ���� Breaking - the number of patients with #Covid19 in ventilated beds has fallen by 4% over the past week in England.

    ➡️ Numbers are 72% lower than last year

    https://twitter.com/statsjamie/statu...033838084?s=21

    I’d follow thus guy for stats

    ➡️ Patients with Covid-19 overall in hospital up a third, but up to 45% may be in with Covid, but not for it.

    Here is Wales ��������������

    ���� Wales - 15% increase in past week in #Covid19 patients in ventilated beds & 73% lower than last year

    ➡️ Patients in general beds up 74% but 55% lower than last year

    ➡️ No Wales data but 37-45% of English beds have patients with Covid but not reason for being in hospital

  20. #20

    Re: Covid Rates in Wales - have the greater restrictions worked at all?

    Quote Originally Posted by TWGL1 View Post
    Here is England ��������������

    ���� Breaking - the number of patients with #Covid19 in ventilated beds has fallen by 4% over the past week in England.

    ➡️ Numbers are 72% lower than last year

    https://twitter.com/statsjamie/statu...033838084?s=21

    I’d follow thus guy for stats

    ➡️ Patients with Covid-19 overall in hospital up a third, but up to 45% may be in with Covid, but not for it.

    Here is Wales ��������������

    ���� Wales - 15% increase in past week in #Covid19 patients in ventilated beds & 73% lower than last year

    ➡️ Patients in general beds up 74% but 55% lower than last year

    ➡️ No Wales data but 37-45% of English beds have patients with Covid but not reason for being in hospital
    These don’t really help either. With no numbers to know what the increase/decrease is from these stats are mostly useless.

    What I’m saying is the useful stats for OP to find and to look at are hospitalisations for Covid per 100k or 1m and deaths from Covid per 100k or 1m and compare those numbers between the 2 countries.

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