Reply With QuoteThat’s a fair point actually , but an easier variable would be to look at annual excess deaths and compare those year on year taking into account population growth.
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Assuming you’re replying to me, you’re missing my point. Saying “hospitalisations are down 20% in England and 10% in Wales compared to last year” doesn’t tell us anything. These are all made up numbers now to illustrate my point: England could’ve had 10% of the country in hospital so a 20% reduction means 8% of the country are now hospitalised. Compared to wales where last year we might’ve had 5% hospitalised so a 10% reduction means only 4.5% are hospitalised. The comparison could be being made when Wales could’ve been right in the middle of our peak and England in a trough.Originally Posted by TWGL1
That’s a fair point actually , but an easier variable would be to look at annual excess deaths and compare those year on year taking into account population growth.
I dont see how Bristol has any relevance. The question was have the restrictions worked.
Did closing nightclubs , stopping crowds at stadiums , the rule of 6 in pubs work.
Im 99.9 per cent sure if those things hadnt been restricted there would have been more close contacts more infections more people isolating.
I have no idea on why Bristol is currently less.
Im pretty certain its not because they can go to the football , go to packed nightclubs and pubs though.
If you can find those numbers by all means post them here.
I’d argue an easier way of measuring is just looking at “Hospitalisations per 100k” and “Deaths per 100k” since the current restrictions were announced. We’re talking about the current restrictions so looking at annual excess deaths would only cover restrictions in 2020 and 2021.
Good post. For me, the difference isn't significant enough and I haven't supported the restrictions this time around. I've written enough as to my reasons why and it's not because I can't go to the football (though of course, that's p*ssed me off).
Have the restrictions in Wales seen businesses collapse, people lose jobs , increase mentality risk and future health issues , effected young children education and state of mind.
Was the under performing health sector before Covid in Wales resulted in greater restrictions and added risk .
You just can't leave it alone, can you? Stop being foolish.
The disease (Omicron) is the same everywhere so there is the same true relationship between the actual (not reported) cases and actual (not reported) deaths. Reported death data is probably the most reliable indicator of the prevalence of the disease. Reported case numbers are almost completely useless cross sectionally and as time series for a plethora of reasons.
You're asserting Wales' policy has made no difference. You're offering no acceptable evidence.
In 2019, there were 530,841 deaths registered in England and Wales, a decrease of 2.0% compared with 2018 (541,589 deaths).
Taking into account the population size and age structure, age-standardised mortality rates (ASMRs) in England and Wales decreased significantly, by 3.7% for males and 4.7% for females
2020 data
Using the Deaths Registered in England and Wales publication, there have been 607,922 deaths registered in 2020. 569,700 in England and 37,399 in Wales. Year-end figures for Scotland and Northern Ireland can be found in the links below:
2021 data
Using the Deaths Registered Weekly in England and Wales publication, there have been 393,733 deaths registered in England and Wales as of 3 September 2021. 23,911 of these deaths were registered in Wales. This publication is updated every Tuesday.
UK. E & W. Eng. Wal. Scot. N.I
2018 616,014 541,589 505,859 34,406 58,503 15,922
2017 607,172 533,253 498,882 33,248 57,883 16,036
2016 597,206 525,048 490,791 33,066 56,728 15,430
2015 602,782 529,655 495,309 33,198 57,579 15,548
I don't think they are that similar. Have you looked at the variation in population densities?
Sweden to introduce stricter restrictions including work from home mandate
Stricter pandemic measures are to be introduced in Sweden in response to a rising number of Covid cases and pressure on hospitals, the prime minister has said.
“The situation has deteriorated, without doubt. The level of infections in Sweden is at a historically high level,” Magdalena Andersson told a news conference, according to Reuters.
The new measures include a work from home mandate where possible and a cap on the number of people allowed at public events. Restaurants will have to close at 11pm and guests will have to be seated and in groups no bigger than eight people. Adults are also being asked to limit social contacts indoors.
The measures will be evaluated after two weeks, but are expected to be in place for at least four weeks.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/li...08ad63cf67466f
The pubs thing is a joke anyway, you get 3 or 4 people booking tables in a place and by 9/10 pm no one has a clue who was where.
I heard the landlord in the Albany couldn’t control people in the pub nye so decided to close it early, being a bit peed off most of the pub then went back to one guys house for a party, about 40 people….maybe things like this are why it’s worse here and I bet this is occurring everywhere.
They are not the best , but definitely not the worse ,that’s all , and a more favourable strategy allowing for social responsibility.
Sweden has been both praised and vilified for its “light touch” stance during the pandemic, but with a second covid winter approaching, how do its experts rate the country’s pandemic control now, asks Marta Paterlini
“Swedish statistics do not differ from other European countries,” Anders Tegnell, the state epidemiologist who has been the face of Sweden’s infamous pandemic strategy, tells The BMJ.
“After two years of pandemic Sweden does not stand out. We are not the best, but we are definitely not the worst.”
In contrast to the stricter, often lockdown focused, approaches of many European countries—including its neighbours in Scandinavia—Sweden’s strategy has relied on individuals taking responsibility under non-binding recommendations.1 In the first six months of the pandemic, the government enacted extensive work from home measures for those that could, as well as remote learning for over 16s.
https://www.bmj.com/content/375/bmj.n3081
This is on Sky News today
Pretty much explains everything
https://news.sky.com/story/four-diff...-2020-12513215
Whatever the case, the Uk as a whole is setting the type of records you don't want to set.
Maybe the question should be " Has taking a lax approach been effective ? "
The answer is plainly "No".
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...s-figures-show
What are the death rates in Japan, NZ or China where restrictions are much stricter ?
It's not as if the economy in the UK isn't suffering at greater levels than the rest of the continent either....if you want to bring money (and maybe brexit) into it.
You can say "look at Wales/Scotland stats vs England's ....the restrictions don't work" but that would be an extremely narrow way of looking at it. It might be that things are particularly shit in England and that our proximity means that even with tighter restrictions we are suffering from being in the fallout zone.
Restrictions obviously do work, but if there is a heavy cultural burden and heavy transit from an area with a lot of community transmission, which is undoubtedly the case in England, no amount of measures will curb the general trend.
It’s impossible to say. It’s probably
Slowed the spread down somewhat. What would the numbers be like in Wales now, if England had followed suit and been a little bit more careful in their approach too? With so much movement between wales and England obviously it will still spread.
I’m just glad that the Welsh gov have at least tried to do something to protect the public here. The uk gov were probably too afraid of setting any rules they couldn’t follow
didnt Australia have that idea and it worked for over 1 year, but Covid still arrived and still tore through communities, not sure what stalling it with lockdowns achieves now as a very high % of people who want vaccines have had them by now ( the people who haven't are not likely to think, oh we have stalled the virus for another 3 months, I might aswell have my jabs now )
The graph shows the number of people admitted to hospital with COVID per 100K of population not the number of people who died in hospital from COVID.
Or it might not.
3 new cases tore through Western Australia on Monday.
I mean, it IS particularly shit in England. No might about it.
Maybe, I'd even say it's probably had an influence on our figures. Everything else from the other side of the border affects us, why wouldn't this?
Restrictions DO work though. There is no debate really. Like I said, go look at Japan or NZ or Korea's death rate during the pandemic. The stats from England (UK) are very, very bad.
I suspect the economic downturn after Brexit is playing a role in BJ's policies.
Why should every country have the same rules? Every country has different circumstances. What is needed in one may not be needed in another
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-12-...aths/100732338
over 21K in NSW over christmas
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-01-...ise-/100746772
over 25K yesterday ( Monday )
the point is lockdowns / restrictions only buy you time till you have everyone vaccinated , we all knew that ( we ( and Australia ) must be close to that point as everyone has had the opportunity ( of course if you can't have the vaccine that doesn't apply to you and you need all the luck god has ) so further restrictions appear to be just a delaying tactic, but delaying till when ? ?
Delay until enough vaccines , so Health Services and other services dont get overwhelmed.
People are moaning about restrictions in Wales. Completely incomparable to Australia and Western Australia in particular.
When this pandemic is over the death rates will show if Australia handled this better than the UK.
oh I agree but both us and Australia ( I know NSW has ) have empty vaccine slots every day, so the people who are going to have the vaccines have had them ( apart from a small % of people who were slow on the uptake, 22K 1st jabs yesterday here, at least they are on the road I guess )
we will see Australia handled it better at the start, but as soon as they relaxed restrictions ( especially in NSW ) the virus arrived and spread, but at what expense to peoples jobs and mental health and health in general
maybe in Australia now had real trouble getting tested recently, seemed to take forever
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