A preview of what’s to come in the cost of living crisis?

[Eric the Half a Bee]

I hear you TOBW, I'm a massive porridge fan and whilst I get a cheaper type, it's gone up. The answer almost certainly is here:

Global oat prices have more than doubled in the last 6-9 months. Fallen slightly in the last month or so but not by enough and too soon to see the impact on the shelves. I'm not sure why, but presumably the rise is weather related somewhere?

This link should work
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/oat

Surely we grow our own oats here, mainly in Scotlando, so what on earth have global prices got to do with anything? If I go to my local butcher for a chicken, would his price be partly governed by global chicken prices?

[az city]

Surely we grow our own oats here, mainly in Scotlando, so what on earth have global prices got to do with anything? If I go to my local butcher for a chicken, would his price be partly governed by global chicken prices?

Commodity prices are mostly determined globally by the balance of demand and supply. Why would a Scottish oat producer accept less than the global market price for her oats?

[Eric the Half a Bee]

Commodity prices are mostly determined globally by the balance of demand and supply. Why would a Scottish oat producer accept less than the global market price for her oats?

A global market price doesn't guarantee the producer that price. At the moment, taking Brexit as an example, accepting less from British traders might be acceptable in the face of the paperwork mountain they face to export it.

[az city]

A global market price doesn't guarantee the producer that price. At the moment, taking Brexit as an example, accepting less from British traders might be acceptable in the face of the paperwork mountain they face to export it.

Note my use of "mostly". Clearly the net price is the important determinant and that includes freight, administration, insurance, tariffs etc. A case in point is natural gas in the US. It's difficult and costly to export so it's cheap in the US. Oats from Scotland, I'd venture, not so difficult/costly to sell in the global marketplace 'though I freely admit Brexit hasn't helped with net prices for goods from Scotland.

[Eric the Half a Bee]

Note my use of "mostly". Clearly the net price is the important determinant and that includes freight, administration, insurance, tariffs etc. A case in point is natural gas in the US. It's difficult and costly to export so it's cheap in the US. Oats from Scotland, I'd venture, not so difficult/costly to sell in the global marketplace 'though I freely admit Brexit hasn't helped with net prices for goods from Scotland.

So there's a big element of sell local, unless you're in a situation where another market would give you huge money for your product that you have no chance of getting on your own doorstep.