Deaths from Covid ALONE between Jan 1 2020 to 30/9/2021 only 17,371

[xsnaggle]

to try to illustrate the basic point i was trying to make look if you will at the numbers given her by the ONS. It shows death in the last month of 2021 and the first week of 2022. One set shows and increase the other a decrease. To attain the mean figure we have to deduct one from the other.
given that the pandemic in UK started in Mar 2020 and went on (for example) until Dec 2021, a period of 20 month,s we should then look at the figures of the next 20 months to determine the overall difference above the average. That would be a better indicator of the actual number of excess deaths over a period.
It may well be that the figure is much higher, and evidence suggests that will be the case, but until we have that data no one can say with any certainty.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...rriages/deaths

If these figures aren't collated to establish trends then there is no point in collating them at all.
now I'm going back to sleep because I was working last night, whatever Delm may have been doing.

[az city]

to try to illustrate the basic point i was trying to make look if you will at the numbers given her by the ONS. It shows death in the last month of 2021 and the first week of 2022. One set shows and increase the other a decrease. To attain the mean figure we have to deduct one from the other.
given that the pandemic in UK started in Mar 2020 and went on (for example) until Dec 2021, a period of 20 month,s we should then look at the figures of the next 20 months to determine the overall difference above the average. That would be a better indicator of the actual number of excess deaths over a period.
It may well be that the figure is much higher, and evidence suggests that will be the case, but until we have that data no one can say with any certainty.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...rriages/deaths

If these figures aren't collated to establish trends then there is no point in collating them at all.
now I'm going back to sleep because I was working last night, whatever Delm may have been doing.

I have to confess I really don't understand what you're trying to argue. Just trying to clarify a little here...

Most governments have an agency that calculates EXPECTED (EXP) deaths by time period. I think the UK uses 5 years of back data for its modeling. Just an aside, the statistical models used to forecast EXP deaths are not straightforward simple linear extrapolations. They are much more complex - for instance - they split the population into age cohorts and examine what is going on within each cohort. ACTUAL (ACT) deaths are counted for each time period. (Let's put the issue of how deaths are counted and classified to one side.) EXCESS (XS) deaths is the difference for a given time period between the number of expected deaths and actual deaths: XS = ACT - EXP.

Take 2020, 2021 and 2022 and tell us what you're asserting about XS, ACT and EXP for each year and the point you're making from the assertions.