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Thread: Deaths from Covid ALONE between Jan 1 2020 to 30/9/2021 only 17,371

  1. #51

    Re: Deaths from Covid ALONE between Jan 1 2020 to 30/9/2021 only 17,371

    Quote Originally Posted by Cyclops View Post
    Wow!
    You KNOW this was my view before I saw the video.
    That's uncanny!
    As a matter of fact, I didn't have a view until yesterday.
    Show me a post when I expressed that view.
    You're whistling in the wind.
    But you know best.
    Just as you attempt to rubbish my books when you haven't read them.
    And as regards checking the validity of what was revealed by Dr JC (a man with 2 million plus subscribers - some of whom post on here) I did check this and was satisfied on all counts.
    You make yerself look foolish with these ungrounded assertions.
    yeah you wouldn't want to make yourself look foolish posting about things you haven't fully understood would you

  2. #52

    Re: Deaths from Covid ALONE between Jan 1 2020 to 30/9/2021 only 17,371

    Quote Originally Posted by Cyclops View Post
    You make yerself look foolish with these ungrounded assertions.
    It’s not me who is looking foolish in this thread, that’s for sure.

  3. #53

    Re: Deaths from Covid ALONE between Jan 1 2020 to 30/9/2021 only 17,371

    Quote Originally Posted by Cyclops View Post
    Just as you attempt to rubbish my books when you haven't read them.
    I appreciate your large but evidently fragile ego is bruised at present, but the truth is I haven’t rubbished your books at all. Not once. I’ve no idea what they are about and I’m unable to read them as you won’t reveal their titles.

  4. #54

    Re: Deaths from Covid ALONE between Jan 1 2020 to 30/9/2021 only 17,371

    Quote Originally Posted by The Lone Gunman View Post
    This thread is a classic example of people who don’t really know what they’re talking about seizing upon numbers that suit their own views and sensationalising them without checking their validity.

    Cyclops has highlighted the fact that there were ONLY 17,371 deaths from Covid-19 ALONE in England and Wales between 1/1/20 and 30/9/21.

    For balance, I have just Googled deaths from influenza ALONE in England and Wales. According to the ONS (the same source as the Covid-19 figure quoted above), the combined total for 2017, 2018 and 2019 was just 3,279.

    That total can be broken down as 458 in 2017, 1,598 in 2018 and 1,223 in 2019.

    Of course, the totals for influenza AND pneumonia are much larger - 29,516 in 2018 and 26,398 in 2019. But the totals for influenza ALONE are relatively small and considerably smaller than the totals for Covid-19 ALONE.
    Makes you wonder why Doctors are so worried about influenza, probably because many oldies develop pneumonia from it, just like cancer patients do, my old man did also. Any serious infection could bump you off with terminal cancer….

  5. #55

    Re: Deaths from Covid ALONE between Jan 1 2020 to 30/9/2021 only 17,371

    Quote Originally Posted by goats View Post
    Makes you wonder why Doctors are so worried about influenza, probably because many oldies develop pneumonia from it, just like cancer patients do, my old man did also. Any serious infection could bump you off with terminal cancer….
    Precisely. The current overview of pneumonia on the NHS website reads as follows:

    “Pneumonia is swelling (inflammation) of the tissue in one or both of the lungs. It is usually caused by a bacterial infection. It can also be caused by a virus, such as Covid-19.”

    It’s almost as if the Covid-19 virus weakens people, especially the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions, leaving them open to further medical complications and possible death.

    Who’d have thought it?

  6. #56

    Re: Deaths from Covid ALONE between Jan 1 2020 to 30/9/2021 only 17,371

    Quote Originally Posted by Cyclops View Post
    Wow!
    You KNOW this was my view before I saw the video.
    That's uncanny!
    As a matter of fact, I didn't have a view until yesterday.
    Show me a post when I expressed that view.
    You're whistling in the wind.
    But you know best.
    Just as you attempt to rubbish my books when you haven't read them.
    And as regards checking the validity of what was revealed by Dr JC (a man with 2 million plus subscribers - some of whom post on here) I did check this and was satisfied on all counts.
    You make yerself look foolish with these ungrounded assertions.
    Why do you always descend into personal attacks? You’ve apparently got your answers and enough information for an unwavering viewpoint. So why not rebuke people with the superior facts and knowledge you’ve got?
    As for no of subscribers, there’s YouTube channels where kids review Lego toys with 10’s of millions of subscribers and 30yr olds who play video games all day with 50million+ subscribers.

    People on YouTube have uploaded videos with hundreds and thousands of views claiming the earth is flat.

  7. #57

    Re: Deaths from Covid ALONE between Jan 1 2020 to 30/9/2021 only 17,371

    Quote Originally Posted by Canton Kev View Post
    Why do you always descend into personal attacks? You’ve apparently got your answers and enough information for an unwavering viewpoint. So why not rebuke people with the superior facts and knowledge you’ve got?
    As for no of subscribers, there’s YouTube channels where kids review Lego toys with 10’s of millions of subscribers and 30yr olds who play video games all day with 50million+ subscribers.

    People on YouTube have uploaded videos with hundreds and thousands of views claiming the earth is flat.
    High Covid death rates skewed by people who died from other causes, admits Sajid Javid

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics...-virus-admits/

  8. #58

    Re: Deaths from Covid ALONE between Jan 1 2020 to 30/9/2021 only 17,371

    Quote Originally Posted by TWGL1 View Post
    High Covid death rates skewed by people who died from other causes, admits Sajid Javid

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics...-virus-admits/
    From what I can tell that’s mostly since Omicron. The ONS Covid death figures were higher than the official government ones until Omicron and then there was a flip, which is now what Javid is commenting on.

    The crux of the issue I want to understand is 150k deaths came from somewhere. If not Covid, where?

  9. #59

    Re: Deaths from Covid ALONE between Jan 1 2020 to 30/9/2021 only 17,371

    Quote Originally Posted by TWGL1 View Post
    High Covid death rates skewed by people who died from other causes, admits Sajid Javid
    This is also not a new development. I think most of us already knew this was the case.

    Interesting graph halfway down the article you linked showing the average death rates for the last five years and the death rates in recent times. The excess deaths. Did you spot that one?

  10. #60

    Re: Deaths from Covid ALONE between Jan 1 2020 to 30/9/2021 only 17,371

    Yes I saw that too, that’s concerning, but this article from 2020 could explain it

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/202...-report-shows/

  11. #61

    Re: Deaths from Covid ALONE between Jan 1 2020 to 30/9/2021 only 17,371

    Quote Originally Posted by TWGL1 View Post
    Yes I saw that too, that’s concerning, but this article from 2020 could explain it

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/202...-report-shows/
    How do you think the article explains it?

  12. #62

    Re: Deaths from Covid ALONE between Jan 1 2020 to 30/9/2021 only 17,371

    Collateral damage from delays to healthcare , (25,000) 185,000 in the medium to long term - over 1m years of life lost.
    It’s been proven that Poverty , mental health , fuel poverty , decline in social services support , would also have an impact but the list is not exhaustive.

  13. #63

    Re: Deaths from Covid ALONE between Jan 1 2020 to 30/9/2021 only 17,371

    Quote Originally Posted by TWGL1 View Post
    Collateral damage from delays to healthcare , (25,000) 185,000 in the medium to long term - over 1m years of life lost.
    It’s been proven that Poverty , mental health , fuel poverty , decline in social services support , would also have an impact but the list is not exhaustive.
    How could an estimate in a report of 185,000 deaths in the medium to long term explain the 150k excess deaths in the last couple of years?

  14. #64

    Re: Deaths from Covid ALONE between Jan 1 2020 to 30/9/2021 only 17,371

    185,000 is a knock in from collateral damage from withdraw/reallocation of healthcare services alone over the medium term

    The other issues I’ve mentioned would also have a significant impact but there are plenty more as I’ve alluded to.
    I guess it’s just my interpretation of the data available in relation to this thread and the links from the reports in the Daily Telegraph.
    Unless you have a breakdown on the excess deaths you could argue either way but to assume it’s one factor is unrealistic and open to scrutiny.

  15. #65

    Re: Deaths from Covid ALONE between Jan 1 2020 to 30/9/2021 only 17,371

    Quote Originally Posted by TWGL1 View Post
    185,000 is a knock in from collateral damage from withdraw/reallocation of healthcare services alone over the medium term

    The other issues I’ve mentioned would also have a significant impact but there are plenty more as I’ve alluded to.
    I guess it’s just my interpretation of the data available in relation to this thread and the links from the reports in the Daily Telegraph.
    Unless you have a breakdown on the excess deaths you could argue either way.
    Those effects aren't a given, they can be reduced by more spending in that area i.e. making sure that missed screening is caught up on.

    Additionally, they aren't necessarily any better in a world where this is no lock down. If the virus had been allowed to run riot then there would have been a lot more missed appointments as the NHS wouldn't have been able to cope - this report from July 2020 at a time when there were voices within the govermnent suggesting a "herd immunity" approach fortunately doesn't seem to have ultimately had much creedence here or anywhere else

  16. #66
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    Re: Deaths from Covid ALONE between Jan 1 2020 to 30/9/2021 only 17,371

    Quote Originally Posted by The Lone Gunman View Post
    This is gibberish.
    Why is it> The point is that many of the people who's underlying conditions made them susceptible to Covid may well have dies within 2 years anyway. So we need to see what the death rate is in the next 2 years to see if it is lower, than average thereby balancing out the figures. If after this time it is still higher I'd reckon that would give you a clearer view of the death rate purely due to covid.

  17. #67

    Re: Deaths from Covid ALONE between Jan 1 2020 to 30/9/2021 only 17,371

    Quote Originally Posted by xsnaggle View Post
    Why is it> The point is that many of the people who's underlying conditions made them susceptible to Covid may well have dies within 2 years anyway. So we need to see what the death rate is in the next 2 years to see if it is lower, than average thereby balancing out the figures. If after this time it is still higher I'd reckon that would give you a clearer view of the death rate purely due to covid.
    Many people in their 80s will die within the next few years - does that mean you shouldn't help them now?

    Should we not treat cancers in people over 85?

  18. #68

    Re: Deaths from Covid ALONE between Jan 1 2020 to 30/9/2021 only 17,371

    Quote Originally Posted by Rjk View Post
    Those effects aren't a given, they can be reduced by more spending in that area i.e. making sure that missed screening is caught up on.

    Additionally, they aren't necessarily any better in a world where this is no lock down. If the virus had been allowed to run riot then there would have been a lot more missed appointments as the NHS wouldn't have been able to cope - this report from July 2020 at a time when there were voices within the govermnent suggesting a "herd immunity" approach fortunately doesn't seem to have ultimately had much creedence here or anywhere else
    Noted , but your assumption was based on SAGE modelling which time and time again has proved to be incorrect.

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    Re: Deaths from Covid ALONE between Jan 1 2020 to 30/9/2021 only 17,371

    Quote Originally Posted by Rjk View Post
    Many people in their 80s will die within the next few years - does that mean you shouldn't help them now?

    Should we not treat cancers in people over 85?
    I agree with you entirely. i'm not in any way suggesting it is acceptable or good, but it may be a fact! that's all.

  20. #70

    Re: Deaths from Covid ALONE between Jan 1 2020 to 30/9/2021 only 17,371

    Quote Originally Posted by TWGL1 View Post
    Noted , but your assumption was based on SAGE modelling which time and time again has proved to be incorrect.
    are you saying you genuinely think that we would have been better off if we hadn't bothered to lock down at all? because nobody with any credibility is saying that.

  21. #71

    Re: Deaths from Covid ALONE between Jan 1 2020 to 30/9/2021 only 17,371

    No I’m not saying that at all, but to attribute 150,000 excess deaths to one illness is open to debate especially with the data being filtered out.

  22. #72

    Re: Deaths from Covid ALONE between Jan 1 2020 to 30/9/2021 only 17,371

    so many facts and figures to digest my head is spinning

    nicked this from someone on twitter there has been an excess of 83k deaths since the pandemic started . An easy graph to show how many people have died throughout 2020 & 2021 showing covid and non covid deaths in England and Wales


  23. #73
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    Re: Deaths from Covid ALONE between Jan 1 2020 to 30/9/2021 only 17,371

    Quote Originally Posted by xsnaggle View Post
    Why is it> The point is that many of the people who's underlying conditions made them susceptible to Covid may well have dies within 2 years anyway. So we need to see what the death rate is in the next 2 years to see if it is lower, than average thereby balancing out the figures. If after this time it is still higher I'd reckon that would give you a clearer view of the death rate purely due to covid.
    If I understand you correctly, I don't understand you.

    Everyone dies - most of us are agreed on that. Everyone dies just once - also generally agreed (not sure about Truthpaste!)

    When a pandemic hits the excess death figures must be balanced at a later date by lower than normal death figures (allowing for the graph to adjust for changes to life expectancy etc). The impact of the pandemic when it comes to deaths is premature deaths.

    I have no problem with the Covid death figures - where the measure is people who have died solely due to Covid (even then the actual cause of death will not be the virus) and those for whom underlying health factors were triggered by the virus bringing on severe illness and death that wouldn't have happened at that time.

    Where excess deaths gets a bit difficult is where the 'collatoral damage' in a stressed health service leads to more deaths of people where the cause had nothing to do with Covid. Even then it is not a simple case of saying that Covid prevention measures and/or swamped hospitals caused those non-Covid deaths - in those cases where the Covid prevention measures didn't actually protect those vulnerable people.

    As other posters have said the government could take other action to mitigate the impact - more/less restrictions, clearer advice and information, added screening capacity, having a pandemic emergency plan that was up to date and properly resourced, different budget choices.

    I don't think there is any readily available data set for the UK that can separate those strands out. In the absence of that we get more circular arguments that go nowhere.

  24. #74
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    Re: Deaths from Covid ALONE between Jan 1 2020 to 30/9/2021 only 17,371

    Quote Originally Posted by jon1959 View Post
    If I understand you correctly, I don't understand you.

    Everyone dies - most of us are agreed on that. Everyone dies just once - also generally agreed (not sure about Truthpaste!)

    When a pandemic hits the excess death figures must be balanced at a later date by lower than normal death figures (allowing for the graph to adjust for changes to life expectancy etc). The impact of the pandemic when it comes to deaths is premature deaths.

    I have no problem with the Covid death figures - where the measure is people who have died solely due to Covid (even then the actual cause of death will not be the virus) and those for whom underlying health factors were triggered by the virus bringing on severe illness and death that wouldn't have happened at that time.

    Where excess deaths gets a bit difficult is where the 'collatoral damage' in a stressed health service leads to more deaths of people where the cause had nothing to do with Covid. Even then it is not a simple case of saying that Covid prevention measures and/or swamped hospitals caused those non-Covid deaths - in those cases where the Covid prevention measures didn't actually protect those vulnerable people.

    As other posters have said the government could take other action to mitigate the impact - more/less restrictions, clearer advice and information, added screening capacity, having a pandemic emergency plan that was up to date and properly resourced, different budget choices.

    I don't think there is any readily available data set for the UK that can separate those strands out. In the absence of that we get more circular arguments that go nowhere.
    Again, I agree with you. One cannot disregard a person's death or say "He would have died anyway" for as you rightly point out we all die anyway.
    Your comment about 'premature' deaths is the point.
    If we now have a higher than historical death rate now since Mar 20 but over the same period going forward we have a lower than historical rate then that should give us more of a realistic idea of the excess deaths overall. It will suggest that certain vulnerable people who died may have died anyway in the following period, just that their death was sooner than expected. That is not a good thing of course but if you can imagine the death rate being affected by the virus like a wave, after a peak comes a trough and there is a mean line across both. Any residual excess deaths across the peak and trough will give a clearer picture.

  25. #75

    Re: Deaths from Covid ALONE between Jan 1 2020 to 30/9/2021 only 17,371

    Quote Originally Posted by Rjk View Post
    Excess deaths is the statistic that you want to be looking at, and despite unprecedented restrictions on many aspects of daily life there have been a huge number of them in this country since th start of the pandemic.
    Spot on !

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