Deaths from Covid ALONE between Jan 1 2020 to 30/9/2021 only 17,371

[Rjk]

185,000 is a knock in from collateral damage from withdraw/reallocation of healthcare services alone over the medium term

The other issues I’ve mentioned would also have a significant impact but there are plenty more as I’ve alluded to.
I guess it’s just my interpretation of the data available in relation to this thread and the links from the reports in the Daily Telegraph.
Unless you have a breakdown on the excess deaths you could argue either way.

Those effects aren't a given, they can be reduced by more spending in that area i.e. making sure that missed screening is caught up on.

Additionally, they aren't necessarily any better in a world where this is no lock down. If the virus had been allowed to run riot then there would have been a lot more missed appointments as the NHS wouldn't have been able to cope - this report from July 2020 at a time when there were voices within the govermnent suggesting a "herd immunity" approach fortunately doesn't seem to have ultimately had much creedence here or anywhere else

[TWGL1]

Those effects aren't a given, they can be reduced by more spending in that area i.e. making sure that missed screening is caught up on.

Additionally, they aren't necessarily any better in a world where this is no lock down. If the virus had been allowed to run riot then there would have been a lot more missed appointments as the NHS wouldn't have been able to cope - this report from July 2020 at a time when there were voices within the govermnent suggesting a "herd immunity" approach fortunately doesn't seem to have ultimately had much creedence here or anywhere else

Noted , but your assumption was based on SAGE modelling which time and time again has proved to be incorrect.

[Rjk]

Noted , but your assumption was based on SAGE modelling which time and time again has proved to be incorrect.

are you saying you genuinely think that we would have been better off if we hadn't bothered to lock down at all? because nobody with any credibility is saying that.

[TWGL1]

No I’m not saying that at all, but to attribute 150,000 excess deaths to one illness is open to debate especially with the data being filtered out.

[MOZZER2]

so many facts and figures to digest my head is spinning

nicked this from someone on twitter there has been an excess of 83k deaths since the pandemic started . An easy graph to show how many people have died throughout 2020 & 2021 showing covid and non covid deaths in England and Wales

Excess deaths is 30% above the 5-year ave. Since pandemic started, an excess of 83.3k have been recorded.
Excess deaths is not exact fig but a better indicator of abnormal cause Deaths for any reason where patient had Covid in the last 28 days.
Source: ONS pic.twitter.com/f9MJ8tBD5K

— Bryan Milham (@BryanMilham) January 18, 2022

[chrisp_1927]

Excess deaths is the statistic that you want to be looking at, and despite unprecedented restrictions on many aspects of daily life there have been a huge number of them in this country since th start of the pandemic.

Spot on !

[Eric the Half a Bee]

Why is it> The point is that many of the people who's underlying conditions made them susceptible to Covid may well have dies within 2 years anyway.

You're making a huge, totally unqualified assumption here.

[xsnaggle]

You're making a huge, totally unqualified assumption here.

I'm not making any assumptions I said 'May have'. The point is only time will tell us, if the death rate does not fall below average then there might be an assumption that they would not have, and a lower than average death rate an indication that they might well have.
the point is that cannot be known until we see the numbers to balance against the last 20 odd months.
Its just about the numbers, nothing else about it can possibly be good.

[Eric the Half a Bee]

I'm not making any assumptions I said 'May have'. The point is only time will tell us, if the death rate does not fall below average then there might be an assumption that they would not have, and a lower than average death rate an indication that they might well have.
the point is that cannot be known until we see the numbers to balance against the last 20 odd months.
Its just about the numbers, nothing else about it can possibly be good.

But deaths are well above average.

[xsnaggle]

But deaths are well above average.

Jesus christ how many times do I have to say this.
Deaths are above average now but you need to give time to see if the numbers in the same period going forward are down by the same amount. Only then will you know the real affect of the virus over and above the average.
It's like giving the result of a football match at half time!!
It's not about anything but simple mathematics.

[cyril evans awaydays]

Jesus christ how many times do I have to say this.
Deaths are above average now but you need to give time to see if the numbers in the same period going forward are down by the same amount. Only then will you know the real affect of the virus over and above the average.
It's like giving the result of a football match at half time!!
It's not about anything but simple mathematics.

Elsewhere people like TWGL1 are arguing that the impact of the lockdown could cause nearly 200k premature deaths over the medium to long term. Bit distortive for your simple mathematics if this comes to pass. All we may be left with is the Office of National Statistics calculating 150k excess deaths in the UK from April 2020 and a remarkable coincidence of 175k deaths of people with covid during the same period.

[The Lone Gunman]

Jesus christ how many times do I have to say this. Deaths are above average now but you need to give time to see if the numbers in the same period going forward are down by the same amount. Only then will you know the real affect of the virus over and above the average.

Do you think there's a possibility, just a chance, that the death figures in previous years may give us an indication of the effect of the virus?

Here are the totals for the numbers of deaths in England and Wales for 2010 to 2020 (the figure for 2021 isn't available yet):

2010 - 493,242
2011 - 484,397
2012 - 499,331
2013 - 506,790
2014 - 501,424
2015 - 529,655
2016 - 525,048
2017 - 533,253
2018 - 541,589
2019 - 530,841
2020 - 607,922

(Source: the Office of National Statistics)

Spot the odd one out.

Were you aware that the total number of deaths in England and Wales (and the whole of the UK) in 2020 was the highest for more than a century? Back in 1918, when there happened to be a global flu pandemic, the total number of deaths registered in England and Wales was 611,861. Between then and 2020, the highest figure was 591,889 in 1972.

[xsnaggle]

are you saying that it wouldn't matter if 1000000 people died if they would have died 2 years later anyway?

I thought someone would pick on that. you know very well I didn't mean that you're just being an arse.
it's not about people, the people are important. Its just about the numbers and the numbers are random to illustrate that. but you knew that didn't you. I could have used 1, 5 and 10. What would you have picked on then?

[delmbox]

I thought someone would pick on that. you know very well I didn't mean that you're just being an arse.
it's not about people, the people are important. Its just about the numbers and the numbers are random to illustrate that. but you knew that didn't you. I could have used 1, 5 and 10. What would you have picked on then?

What happened in those 7 minutes between 02:17 and 02:24 that made you decide you wanted to add a bit of spice to the message?

[Father Dougal]

Do you think there's a possibility, just a chance, that the death figures in previous years may give us an indication of the effect of the virus?

Here are the totals for the numbers of deaths in England and Wales for 2010 to 2020 (the figure for 2021 isn't available yet):

2010 - 493,242
2011 - 484,397
2012 - 499,331
2013 - 506,790
2014 - 501,424
2015 - 529,655
2016 - 525,048
2017 - 533,253
2018 - 541,589
2019 - 530,841
2020 - 607,922

(Source: the Office of National Statistics)

Spot the odd one out.

Were you aware that the total number of deaths in England and Wales (and the whole of the UK) in 2020 was the highest for more than a century? Back in 1918, when there happened to be a global flu pandemic, the total number of deaths registered in England and Wales was 611,861. Between then and 2020, the highest figure was 591,889 in 1972.

It can't be argued they are higher- as they are. However isn't there a more nuanced debate to be had around the reasons (and it won't be a single reason) for these deaths.

For example how many extra have died because of cancer due to so much of our normal NHS all but disappearing as it focused almost entirely on covid?

[az city]

It can't be argued they are higher- as they are. However isn't there a more nuanced debate to be had around the reasons (and it won't be a single reason) for these deaths.

For example how many extra have died because of cancer due to so much of our normal NHS all but disappearing as it focused almost entirely on covid?

And how many fewer deaths from 'flu, traffic accidents etc? It cuts both ways.

[Eric Cartman]

It can't be argued they are higher- as they are. However isn't there a more nuanced debate to be had around the reasons (and it won't be a single reason) for these deaths.

For example how many extra have died because of cancer due to so much of our normal NHS all but disappearing as it focused almost entirely on covid?

It is a bit of a get out though isn't it.

"OH THOSE PEOPLE, yeah they died with covid not OF covid"

"Okay so shall we look at excess deaths then?"

"Well they could have died of anything!"

[The Lone Gunman]

It can't be argued they are higher- as they are. However isn't there a more nuanced debate to be had around the reasons (and it won't be a single reason) for these deaths.

For example how many extra have died because of cancer due to so much of our normal NHS all but disappearing as it focused almost entirely on covid?

Of course. The effects of the pandemic are a lot more pronounced than deaths involving Covid-19 alone. That should be obvious to everyone.

As regards a debate, to be honest I've no idea what some of the people in this thread are trying to say. They talk in riddles.

[JamesWales]

Some interesting but pretty inconclusive stuff here.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...s/december2021

From what I can tell looking at a couple of things, 2021 will be another year of above average death figures.

[Cardiff Ultra]

I like the premise that in some way COVID deaths don't count if the person had something else other than COVID on their death certificates.

Th majority of deaths from AIDS are not caused by the virus but by diseases such as TB (the cause of 25% of AIDS related deaths) which are able to attack the person because their immune system has been weakened by the disease. No one in their right mind has ever argued that these deaths should be attributed to anything other than AIDS, perhaps because when AIDS was at its height there weren't a load of batshit conspiracy theorists doing their 'own research' on twitter.

[The Lone Gunman]

Out of interest, do we know when 2021 figures are out? Presumably, despite the important nature of the topic, it isnt actually a huge undertaking to add up death figures?

Judging by the notes I read regarding the 2020 figures, it will be around May or June. There is a provisional figure ahead of that, but it gets adjusted.

It's not a simple case of arithmetic. Some deaths take a long time to register due to various enquiries and anomalies. This much I know as registering deaths at sea has been a part of my job in the past. Some registrations can drag on for months.

[xsnaggle]

What happened in those 7 minutes between 02:17 and 02:24 that made you decide you wanted to add a bit of spice to the message?

What a stupid comment. Typical of people on here who want to have a dig but can't think of anything constructive to say. Like the 1000000 comment.
What happened was I was working. What were you doing, wanking?

[lardy]

Nobody here overreacts quite like xsnaggle

[xsnaggle]

Nobody here overreacts quite like xsnaggle

Well be fair. It was a totally stupid comment. He even checked the timings. Sad!!!

[xsnaggle]

to try to illustrate the basic point i was trying to make look if you will at the numbers given her by the ONS. It shows death in the last month of 2021 and the first week of 2022. One set shows and increase the other a decrease. To attain the mean figure we have to deduct one from the other.
given that the pandemic in UK started in Mar 2020 and went on (for example) until Dec 2021, a period of 20 month,s we should then look at the figures of the next 20 months to determine the overall difference above the average. That would be a better indicator of the actual number of excess deaths over a period.
It may well be that the figure is much higher, and evidence suggests that will be the case, but until we have that data no one can say with any certainty.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...rriages/deaths

If these figures aren't collated to establish trends then there is no point in collating them at all.
now I'm going back to sleep because I was working last night, whatever Delm may have been doing.