Looking at the results yesterday, three people did better than expected; Macron, Le Pen and in particular Melanchon.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_F...ntial_election

Issue for second round will be low turnout and where Melanchon's high vote goes. Barring something dramatic in the coming two weeks, I can't see any realistic way Le Pen wins though. A comfortable 55-45% win for Macron is my prediction.

It's notable how little support their centre-right and centre-left parties got. Lots have gone to Macron of course, but lots also drifting to more radical parties on the left and right.

Quite a good analysis here: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61064837