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Thread: Local election results.

  1. #1

    Local election results.

    I posted this on another board just now - I did not know the Wandsworth and Westminster results then and, as I mention , it's still early days yet, but I stick by what I said;

    "It's still early days, but it seems to me that, at the moment, Labour are being taught the lesson that they cannot just keep on parroting Tory mistakes and scandals and expect voters to automatically fall into their laps - the Tories are losing votes, but they certainly aren't being switched to Labour in any great numbers.

    As someone who is to the left politically, I can only name one policy of Labour's at the moment that I'm sure of and feel it would be a vote winner - a windfall tax on oil company profits (a policy shared by other opposition parties).

    Labour needs to be more pro active and start telling us what they would do, not just what the the Tories are doing wrong - people may not like the Tories as much as they did, but I don't think they like an opposition that they feel does little else but criticise either.

    I'd also say it's high time that Labour swallowed its pride and started talking to other opposition parties about things like electoral pacts as well as rethinking its views on proportional representation."

  2. #2

    Re: Local election results.

    Think that is about right.

    The London results were positive but there is little dent in the Red Wall seats that Labour will need to win the next election. I think the Tories have reabsorbed most of the Farage right flank and there is still a strong leave/remain divide that cuts across traditional party lines. This seems to favour the Tories in the Midlands and North at the expense of the the south where they are now more vulnerable.

    I agree that Labour has to make a more positive case for change, though policies don't usually firm up until the latter stages of parliamentary terms. It looks like not being Boris Johnson is not enough for Starmer, particularly as the probability is that the Tories will jettison Johnson before the next election.

    One thing I would say is that the Tories are not exactly fizzing with new ideas to sell either now or for the next election. Levelling up seems more of a slogan than a set of coherent policies. They can hardly go into the next election on a Brexit platform having "got it done" in this cycle, though they will no doubt sow seeds that the other parties will undo its imaginary gains.

    I can only see informal agreements with other parties where 2nd place in seats is clear cut.

  3. #3

    Re: Local election results.

    Quote Originally Posted by the other bob wilson View Post
    I posted this on another board just now - I did not know the Wandsworth and Westminster results then and, as I mention , it's still early days yet, but I stick by what I said;

    "It's still early days, but it seems to me that, at the moment, Labour are being taught the lesson that they cannot just keep on parroting Tory mistakes and scandals and expect voters to automatically fall into their laps - the Tories are losing votes, but they certainly aren't being switched to Labour in any great numbers.

    As someone who is to the left politically, I can only name one policy of Labour's at the moment that I'm sure of and feel it would be a vote winner - a windfall tax on oil company profits (a policy shared by other opposition parties).

    Labour needs to be more pro active and start telling us what they would do, not just what the the Tories are doing wrong - people may not like the Tories as much as they did, but I don't think they like an opposition that they feel does little else but criticise either.

    I'd also say it's high time that Labour swallowed its pride and started talking to other opposition parties about things like electoral pacts as well as rethinking its views on proportional representation."
    Completely agree, I have no idea what they stand for and the fact Starmer said he'd break his pledges to win an election concerns me greatly. They won't have my vote until this is addressed (voted for green/plaid yesterday).

  4. #4

    Re: Local election results.

    It does look like a pattern is emerging. It has been a lot easier for labour to make gains in areas where Brexit wasn't a problem for them.

    It's a difficult one because ordinarily you wouldn't want to show your hand this far from a GE but these locals, more than any, have been undertaken on a national basis with Boris being the main issue.

    This is probably typical of starmer, a slow creep towards some small small level of dominance but he is never going to inspire massive headline gains.

    It does feel like the macro environment is going to play out in favour of labour though, as it did for the tories in 2008-2010. Maybe a similar reaction from the electorate to that time period, not enough fully trust the opposition for a landslide but enough to form a coalition.

  5. #5
    International jon1959's Avatar
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    Re: Local election results.

    I agree with most of the points above. Would add that Labour has lost 200,000 members since Starmer’s election as leader including many of the younger and most active. It is a hamstrung and demoralised party with few policies and an uninspiring leader who has reneged on all his 10 pledges. As an ex-member I didn’t vote Labour this time (my partner - also an ex-member stood for the WEP) and I saw hardly any Labour posters around.

  6. #6

    Re: Local election results.

    Quote Originally Posted by jon1959 View Post
    I agree with most of the points above. Would add that Labour has lost 200,000 members since Starmer’s election as leader including many of the younger and most active. It is a hamstrung and demoralised party with few policies and an uninspiring leader who has reneged on all his 10 pledges. As an ex-member I didn’t vote Labour this time (my partner - also an ex-member stood for the WEP) and I saw hardly any Labour posters around.
    Around here there was a Independent councillor who has made local issues his priority since he won his place on the Council after the last election. He got one of my two votes and I gave the other one to Labour because the Council up here seems more proactive and visible than it was in Cardiff.

    So, my votes were made very much from the perspective of local politics and I believe that there is a move towards “smaller” politics across the country - I might be wrong, but it strikes me that this should aid left/progressive parties more.

  7. #7

    Re: Local election results.

    Quote Originally Posted by jon1959 View Post
    I agree with most of the points above. Would add that Labour has lost 200,000 members since Starmer’s election as leader including many of the younger and most active. It is a hamstrung and demoralised party with few policies and an uninspiring leader who has reneged on all his 10 pledges. As an ex-member I didn’t vote Labour this time (my partner - also an ex-member stood for the WEP) and I saw hardly any Labour posters around.
    I was one of those as well, I was inspired by Corbyn who genuinely wanted to make things better for the population and couldn't be bought off by the billionaire class.

    Then now we have mr status quo starmer.

  8. #8

    Re: Local election results.

    Quote Originally Posted by jon1959 View Post
    I agree with most of the points above. Would add that Labour has lost 200,000 members since Starmer’s election as leader including many of the younger and most active. It is a hamstrung and demoralised party with few policies and an uninspiring leader who has reneged on all his 10 pledges. As an ex-member I didn’t vote Labour this time (my partner - also an ex-member stood for the WEP) and I saw hardly any Labour posters around.
    Bring back Corbyn I say, or get Angela to launch an offensive

  9. #9

    Re: Local election results.

    Quote Originally Posted by Doucas View Post
    I was one of those as well, I was inspired by Corbyn who genuinely wanted to make things better for the population and couldn't be bought off by the billionaire class.

    Then now we have mr status quo starmer.
    All the population ??

    Which countries ??

    All races ??

    NATO or Russia ??

  10. #10

    Re: Local election results.

    Quote Originally Posted by life on mars View Post
    All the population ??

    Which countries ??

    All races ??

    NATO or Russia ??
    Anyone in the UK outside of the top 1% wealth bracket.

    I seriously can't wait for your way of thinking forged by 50+ years of right wing billionaire propaganda to die off so that we can fix the serious issues in our society.

    So Corbyn who has denounced Putin many many times is the Russian whole the tories who receive significant amount of funding by Russian oligarchs and pushed for brexit aren't. Hilarious.

  11. #11

    Re: Local election results.

    Labour must ben slightly underwhelmed with so much flax thrown at the Tories id expect a bigger turn out protest vote instad of a 1 in 5 votes cast turnout

    Wonder if Corbyn now gone the fear he would get in and allowed centralist Labour candidates to get some votes and liberals making more gains so far , it may change but Labour only up 33 and Green not far behind on 23 and Liberals up 58 its interesting times

    Tories down 120 .

    What is needed now is the rise of new Corbyn party ???????????????

  12. #12

    Re: Local election results.

    Abolish labour and liberal parties , form a new alternative left of centre party

    No other option

  13. #13

    Re: Local election results.

    Some good analysis above.

    It's a good day for Labour, but in all honesty, thats what you expect in local elections from whomever isn't in government and in that context it's not as good as Labour would have historically expected. Also, more evidence that the party are becoming increasingly popular in wealthier, metropolitan cities and parts of London and are still struggling to enthuse more traditionally working class communities in the north. Nothing we didn't know before.

    Still lots to count, but Tories will probably be okay with it. They expected a kicking, they got a kicking and sometimes people want to punish parties, and having done so are sometimes more open to voting for them again.

    Lib Dems have done well. They often do at local elections. Might be the start of a return to prominence for them after brexit etc. Lots of southern Tories will be more content voting for Lib Dems than Labour.

    Greens picked up a few, no bad thing. Interesting from a Labour perspective though who probably want to keep that genie in the box a little.

    No news from Wales - I expect the status quo

    Scotland - I think Labour will gain a lot of seats, at the expense of the Tories and the SNP

    N.IReland - Unfortunately Sinn Fein will win, which will stir the pot a lot.

  14. #14
    International jon1959's Avatar
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    Re: Local election results.

    Sinn Fein becoming the largest party in NI will be the best news from these elections.

    Unionism is in crisis - good!

  15. #15

    Re: Local election results.

    Quote Originally Posted by jon1959 View Post
    Sinn Fein becoming the largest party in NI will be the best news from these elections.

    Unionism is in crisis - good!
    Hear hear and if the wretched DUP get whacked into third place by the Alliance it would be perfection.

  16. #16

    Re: Local election results.

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric Cartman View Post
    It does look like a pattern is emerging. It has been a lot easier for labour to make gains in areas where Brexit wasn't a problem for them.

    It's a difficult one because ordinarily you wouldn't want to show your hand this far from a GE but these locals, more than any, have been undertaken on a national basis with Boris being the main issue.

    This is probably typical of starmer, a slow creep towards some small small level of dominance but he is never going to inspire massive headline gains.

    It does feel like the macro environment is going to play out in favour of labour though, as it did for the tories in 2008-2010. Maybe a similar reaction from the electorate to that time period, not enough fully trust the opposition for a landslide but enough to form a coalition.
    I think your analysis is sound. I thought it interesting to read the opinion of Sky election expert Will Jennings. He says the Conservatives did far better in council areas with a low graduate demographic but fared much worse in areas with a demographic of higher educational achievement. Labour's results followed the converse.

    I wonder if it might be a useful Tory government strategy to allow pupils to leave school at 12: it might just secure their future.

  17. #17

    Re: Local election results.

    Quote Originally Posted by JamesWales View Post
    Some good analysis above.

    It's a good day for Labour, but in all honesty, thats what you expect in local elections from whomever isn't in government and in that context it's not as good as Labour would have historically expected. Also, more evidence that the party are becoming increasingly popular in wealthier, metropolitan cities and parts of London and are still struggling to enthuse more traditionally working class communities in the north. Nothing we didn't know before.

    Still lots to count, but Tories will probably be okay with it. They expected a kicking, they got a kicking and sometimes people want to punish parties, and having done so are sometimes more open to voting for them again.

    Lib Dems have done well. They often do at local elections. Might be the start of a return to prominence for them after brexit etc. Lots of southern Tories will be more content voting for Lib Dems than Labour.

    Greens picked up a few, no bad thing. Interesting from a Labour perspective though who probably want to keep that genie in the box a little.

    No news from Wales - I expect the status quo

    Scotland - I think Labour will gain a lot of seats, at the expense of the Tories and the SNP

    N.IReland - Unfortunately Sinn Fein will win, which will stir the pot a lot.

    Unfortunate for whom? If they win, that will be the democratic will of the NI people. That's how it works.

    Does make the UK gov's squirming over the deal it agreed on the NI Protocol even more difficult - I can see that.

  18. #18

    Re: Local election results.

    I listened to a Podcast previewing the elections and it turned out be pretty accurate apart from two things. Firstly, they thought there was no chance of Labour taking Westminster and, second, that predictions of some sort of electoral Armageddon for the Conservatives were wide of the mark - the conclusion was that the “smart money” was on them losing something like 250/300 Councillors.

    Well, they’ve lost 398 and, although I presume all of the results are in by now, if that we’re to go up to hit 400 to allow the extent to which they had a bad election more significant, I wonder if that may have consequences for Johnson? If they really have lost a hundred seats more than the so called smart money was expecting, then will those MPs finally find some backbone? I’m not holding my breath.

  19. #19

    Re: Local election results.

    Quote Originally Posted by Swiss Peter View Post
    Unfortunate for whom? If they win, that will be the democratic will of the NI people. That's how it works.

    Does make the UK gov's squirming over the deal it agreed on the NI Protocol even more difficult - I can see that.
    I think we will see how democratic the Democratic Unionist Party is when they contemplate power sharing when they are not the dominant power!

  20. #20

    Re: Local election results.

    Some think democratic votes are there to.be overturned ?

  21. #21

    Re: Local election results.

    Quote Originally Posted by life on mars View Post
    Some think democratic votes are there to.be overturned ?
    Donald Trump?

    oops sorry I meant Donald Trump???

  22. #22

    Re: Local election results.

    Quote Originally Posted by cyril evans awaydays View Post
    I think we will see how democratic the Democratic Unionist Party is when they contemplate power sharing when they are not the dominant power!
    Yes very good point. They won't share power with SF. In my opinion this is a flaw in the GFA. If the Deputy Leader refuses to share power the Deputy Leadership should transfer to the third largest Assembly party.

  23. #23

    Re: Local election results.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dorcus View Post
    Yes very good point. They won't share power with SF. In my opinion this is a flaw in the GFA. If the Deputy Leader refuses to share power the Deputy Leadership should transfer to the third largest Assembly party.
    They will share power with SF because they have in the past, but not with Sinn Fein having the First Minister, even though the posts of First and Deputy are equally important in he eyes of the GFA. It's semantics of course but we are talking about the DUP here.

    There would be no point transferring the Deputy Leadership to the third largest party, because the DUP wouldn't take part in the assembly so it couldn't function anyway.

  24. #24

    Re: Local election results.

    Quote Originally Posted by Elwood Blues View Post
    They will share power with SF because they have in the past, but not with Sinn Fein having the First Minister, even though the posts of First and Deputy are equally important in he eyes of the GFA. It's semantics of course but we are talking about the DUP here.

    There would be no point transferring the Deputy Leadership to the third largest party, because the DUP wouldn't take part in the assembly so it couldn't function anyway.
    You're right we're talking about the DUP here. What a bunch of knobheads.

  25. #25

    Re: Local election results.

    Quote Originally Posted by Swiss Peter View Post
    Unfortunate for whom? If they win, that will be the democratic will of the NI people. That's how it works.

    Does make the UK gov's squirming over the deal it agreed on the NI Protocol even more difficult - I can see that.
    Well I wrote the post, so it's unfortunate from my perspective.

    I have little time for Sinn Fein I am afraid. It is stacked with people who hold, or have held opinions sympathetic to the IRA and they offer little but chaos going forward and the break up of a country.

    I don't dispute for a second their right to try and lead a coalition government but that doesn't mean that I don't think it's an unfortunate thing.

    Personally, I'd rather the SDLP and the UUP do better than the more radical Sinn Fein and DUP / TUV

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