Dag & RedB v Wrexham

[OurManFlint II]

I’d be interested to know how clubs have fared with this type of PO arrangement they’ve got in the conference now. Obviously a big advantage to play at home and although it’s one game left, in a long season for Wrexham with a cup final to come too, does the momentum of winning the PO semi help?

I think all the play off semi-finals should be one game at home to the highest finisher.

[Eric the Half a Bee]

I think all the play off semi-finals should be one game at home to the highest finisher.

I'm not so convinced.

At the time of writing this, 74 playoff first legs finished as draws, meaning the second legs were a case of starting from scratch. 51 second legs were won by the home team (the higher ranked side), with 23 wins by the away side. That would suggest home advantage does make a difference.

However, if you look at those stats on a division by division basis, the Championship is far closer in terms of which teams go through after a first leg draw, currently reading 12-10 to the home sides in the second leg.

Of course, there could be an element of teams thinking they'd done the hard work by getting a draw away from home, then taking their foot off the gas in the second leg. I still think there's a lot of pressure on a side to win at home if that's what is needed. 29% of teams at home in the second leg that lost away manage to get through. 48% of sides at home in the second leg fail to make the final if they need to win on the night (even if it is only on penalties). 84% of sides that win away in the first leg make the final.

Currently 39% of teams that finish in the highest playoff spot win promotion. 22% of all sides that finish in the second highest playoff spot win promotion. Between them, the teams in the two highest playoff spots make up 58% of all the teams in the final.

[OurManFlint II]

I'm not so convinced.

At the time of writing this, 74 playoff first legs finished as draws, meaning the second legs were a case of starting from scratch. 51 second legs were won by the home team (the higher ranked side), with 23 wins by the away side. That would suggest home advantage does make a difference.

However, if you look at those stats on a division by division basis, the Championship is far closer in terms of which teams go through after a first leg draw, currently reading 12-10 to the home sides in the second leg.

Of course, there could be an element of teams thinking they'd done the hard work by getting a draw away from home, then taking their foot off the gas in the second leg. I still think there's a lot of pressure on a side to win at home if that's what is needed. 29% of teams at home in the second leg that lost away manage to get through. 48% of sides at home in the second leg fail to make the final if they need to win on the night (even if it is only on penalties). 84% of sides that win away in the first leg make the final.

Currently 39% of teams that finish in the highest playoff spot win promotion. 22% of all sides that finish in the second highest playoff spot win promotion. Between them, the teams in the two highest playoff spots make up 58% of all the teams in the final.

Not sure you can just take those statistics and count the home leg only, doesn't work like that. In all sports home advantage is a thing & it drags on too much already, just get it done!