Reply With QuoteOh dear someone's lost their bet; shall we organise a whipround?Originally Posted by the other bob wilson
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40.2 degrees recorded at Heathrow.
Oh dear someone's lost their bet; shall we organise a whipround?
The BBC weather page predicted 41c for Sheffield yesterday and 43c today. It was actually 36c yesterday and today it says a high of 38c. (I know this, as I am off to the peak district next week so I've been checking religiously.
It doesn't change the broader debate (that climate change is largely man made) to acknowledge that the reality on this occasion didn't quite reach the predictions in most of the country.
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there were different predictions from different sources, and of course people can choose to present their data in different ways. i.e. do you show the most likely temperature, or the highest temperature it could realistically get to. there will be a range of probabilities and it's about conveying the most useful information from that in a way the general public will understand.
the main predictions were that we could see record temperatures, and we could see temperatures in excess of 40 c , and both of those have happened.
I never thought I'd see 40 degrees in this country
We are enjoying some precipitation in the Vale of Taunton right now - and I'm enjoying the petrichor.
He's not wrong though is he...
Same here in Tynewydd with those big heavy rain drops which usually mean a downpour is imminent - no sign of it yet, but it’s gone so sultry.
Rain and thunder in Cardiff
Irony
Somewhere between 39-40 degrees in east london
I don't think that is correct. Disclaimer is that any of these completely computer generated forecasts are subject to a few wild predictions now and then hence the random Sheffield one. I have been following this across a few sites for a good 10 days now, I haven't seen anything that high on any forecast and certainly not for somewhere as far north as Sheffield. Most sites have been able to forecast this pretty much spot on give or take a little margin of error which is quite impressive considering how far out they sometimes are.
Not really though is it. Look at what he read.
Yes, he is.
I've always said Derek Brockway is the man, and handily he has a screenshot of the 41c predicted for Sheffield yesterday. I think it was on sunday that they also predicted 43c for today
https://twitter.com/DerekTheWeather/...sible-24520665
The actual high in Sheffield was 36c at 5pm -5c below what they predicted.
Again, thats extremely hot, but like I said, it's possible that the predictions were slightly inflated, without questioning the whole premise of man made climate change
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather...ions/gcqzwtdw7
And what if they were? What’s your point? There has been a record temperature set in the UK of more than 40 degrees, a figure that I’ve seen described as “staggering” by one of the meteorologists on the BBC.
Or it's possible that predicting a temperature in a relatively small area 48 hours into the future is not going to be exact.
Some really troubling scenes in Greater London with a huge fire out of control. Reports there are a couple of others just broken out in the south east. Maybe this will wake a few up to the dangers of climate change.
Exactly. Thats my point. But others were saying anyone is wrong for saying they thought the reality wouldnt hit the predictions made the other day
I know all that. But the heatwave hasn't quite hit the predictions made the other day, and someone was criticised for saying as such, when they were correct.
It doesn't change the bigger picture one bit.
I'm amazed we havent seen more in the Valleys. That is something that (touch wood, no pun..) doesn't seem to be quite the issue it was a few years in terms of deliberate fires anyway
Not really. The main headline was that the UK was predicted to hit 40C, in the south east. And it did. The reality hit the prediction.Exactly. Thats my point. But others were saying anyone is wrong for saying they thought the reality wouldnt hit the predictions made the other day
Drilling down into one particular city's 48 hour forecast just to prove a point is, I assume you're going to inform me, just balance with a little bit of nuance on top.
Let’s get this right, I started this thread saying that it was being predicted that there was a fifty/fifty chance that the temperature in England would hit forty degrees on the Monday and/or Tuesday of the coming week. This was instantly seized upon and ridiculed by some of the “usual suspects” on here. There is now provisional confirmation that the forty degree figure has been exceeded, so I could say that by claiming there was a fifty/fifty chance that the temperature wouldn’t reach forty, the forecast was an underestimation, but what’s the point?
Some might think you were just being argumentative for the sake of it.
Yes. And the truth.
I'm just saying, it's a fact that Sheffield was predicted to be 41 and 43 and it actually was 35 and (it seems) 39.
Whats wrong with pointing that out? Some people were mocking someone who said the predictions may be a little inflated, when actually he was probably right.
I entirely agree with you on the science behind climate change, but you don't have to be an absolute fundemenalist about it. What was predicted the other day, hasn't quite come true. The UK has recorded a record temperatute, but not quite as high as we thought it may do.
Whats wrong in pointing that out? It's the truth.
Raining now in Brizzle. temperature dropping rapidly, down from 41 on my car reading to 33 already,
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