The brexit effect

[az city]

Of course long term impacts are most useful, especially with any major geopolitical change, even more so when two months after said change the global economy was thrown into utter chaos by a pandemic followed a year or two later by a war in Europe. Would you assess Scottish Independence or Welsh devolution after two years? You would be a fool to do so. These are long term decisions, as you know.

Nonetheless, at the same time, given YOU are talking about GDP, I would say actual data that disproves your theories is also valid yes. It's about a holistic debate, looking at a variety of evidence, something you rarely do. You'll cite someone's opinion, claim the world is ending and then insult anyone who offers alternative evidence.

Jesus fkn christ.

I've asked you several times - show me our peer countries that we should be performing like now? Show them. And I'll show you how on various economic factors they are in the same position.

Maybe it's because you don't live in Europe that you seemingly have no idea what is happening on this continent at the moment? Everyone is in the shit.

You're dodging the questions...

[az city]

Ignoring real data to make some pompous smug point about terminology is just about the most AZ City thing ever. Data gets 'skewed' in a great many fields of study for goodness sake.

Stop policing peoples words and start looking at actual data

Actually, they are statistics. Wrong again, Jimbo.

[JamesWales]

You're dodging the questions...

Actually you are.

You've been asked to put up an example of a comparable European country which hasn't left the EU and which is performing notably better economically.

You can't, because they don't exist. Until you can, your central point looks very weak.

[Doucas]

So.. did anyone watch the video?

[Canton Kev]

Actually you are.

You've been asked to put up an example of a comparable European country which hasn't left the EU and which is performing notably better economically.

You can't, because they don't exist. Until you can, your central point looks very weak.

If the millstone around these countries’ necks is the EU, why aren’t we racing ahead economically?

[JamesWales]

If the millstone around these countries’ necks is the EU, why aren’t we racing ahead economically?

Because the millstone around their necks isn't the EU. Brexit was never the catastrophe or the golden ticket that people made it out to be.

Also, no one is racing ahead anywhere at the moment. We are all treading water trying not to drown.

[az city]

Because the millstone around their necks isn't the EU. Brexit was never the catastrophe or the golden ticket that people made it out to be.

Also, no one is racing ahead anywhere at the moment. We are all treading water trying not to drown.

You are bluffing. You've been called. Now is the time to put up or shut up. You have no expertise in any of this.

It's all just the deluded meanderings of a transport planner.

[az city]

Actually you are.

You've been asked to put up an example of a comparable European country which hasn't left the EU and which is performing notably better economically.

You can't, because they don't exist. Until you can, your central point looks very weak.

I'm not dodging anything. I'm just not willing to engage in bogus debate.

I'll explain what is wrong with your method. If you look around at the studies of the effect of Brexit on the UK economy, what you'll find is that all the serious ones don't do cross sectional comparisons as is your want. The reason is such comparisons would be fatuous and misleading in the extreme. No two countries are sufficiently aligned socio-economically to be able to do outcome comparisons with the only difference as being Brexit/non-Brexit.

What is far more common (and accepted by all leading researchers) is to compare the UK with and without Brexit, examining its actual time path with that of the counterfactual that Brexit did not happen. One such study was done and produced the permanent 4% reduction in UK GDP. You know who did the study? The OBR.

Pretty much every study bar one that I'm aware of finds the effects of Brexit on the UK economy to be firmly negative. the one study that (before Brexit) prophesied a positive impact was done by Patrick Minford (Thatcher's and apparently Truss' economic adviser on the recent trickle down episode). Minford got absolutely slaughtered for it by some very heavy-weight and reputable guys at the LSE because he cherry-picked assumptions and scenarios, used old data and an outdated model to astound the orthodoxy (for orthodoxy, read people who know what they're talking about).

You'll probably want to fight me next. That's apparently what you Tory boys do now when you lose an argument. Cheery bye.

[HiVis]

Answer the questions - what expertise in Economics do you have and how much have you formally studied it?

BTW how am I lying if all I'm doing is point to evidence in the FT piece? Evidence that you don't like because it doesn't fit your narrative.

Do you believe in gravity? what experience do you have in physics, and have you studied it?

You come across as a bit of a berk at times - you can read too many books. Economics is a set of theories and its at best a pseudo science. So many competing theories none of which accurately predict what is going on. Perhaps you can tell us what all the wonderful economists were doing in 2007-8 when the city traders were making a killing on the back of a falling market that was completely missed by the economists.

[JamesWales]

I'm not dodging anything. I'm just not willing to engage in bogus debate.

I'll explain what is wrong with your method. If you look around at the studies of the effect of Brexit on the UK economy, what you'll find is that all the serious ones don't do cross sectional comparisons as is your want. The reason is such comparisons would be fatuous and misleading in the extreme. No two countries are sufficiently aligned socio-economically to be able to do outcome comparisons with the only difference as being Brexit/non-Brexit.

What is far more common (and accepted by all leading researchers) is to compare the UK with and without Brexit, examining its actual time path with that of the counterfactual that Brexit did not happen. One such study was done and produced the permanent 4% reduction in UK GDP. You know who did the study? The OBR.

Pretty much every study bar one that I'm aware of finds the effects of Brexit on the UK economy to be firmly negative. the one study that (before Brexit) prophesied a positive impact was done by Patrick Minford (Thatcher's and apparently Truss' economic adviser on the recent trickle down episode). Minford got absolutely slaughtered for it by some very heavy-weight and reputable guys at the LSE because he cherry-picked assumptions and scenarios, used old data and an outdated model to astound the orthodoxy (for orthodoxy, read people who know what they're talking about).

You'll probably want to fight me next. That's apparently what you Tory boys do now when you lose an argument. Cheery bye.

So you cannot cite a single comparable European country to point to who we should be emulating?

You know you can't because they don't exist.

Instead, you want to compare theories, something that has never happened. That's what academics do I guess. You also only look at what you want to; no looking at unemployment, the FTSE, wage growth vs the EU etc..

The invite remains open for you to highlight a country. If Brexit is such a disaster, then patterns should be emerging pretty sharpish. They aren't because Europe as a whole is in an almighty mess that also makes any proper analysis, let alone theoretical ones largely futile.

Of course I don't want to fight you, I don't fight anyone, and I've already said I would likely vote Labour at the next election. Now if you had a dollar for every time you said something false about me..that would be a positive looking graph!

[HiVis]

What will it take for remainers to understand that it wasn't all about numbers on a spreadsheet and the true analysis of Brexit won't be credible for another 15/20 years

So the majority who voted to support this nonsense will be dead by then, whilst the rest of us have to suffer their madness in the interim.

[HiVis]

Because the millstone around their necks isn't the EU. Brexit was never the catastrophe or the golden ticket that people made it out to be.

Also, no one is racing ahead anywhere at the moment. We are all treading water trying not to drown.

If the EU isn't a millstone, then why leave?

[HiVis]

So you cannot cite a single comparable European country to point to who we should be emulating?

You know you can't because they don't exist.

Instead, you want to compare theories, something that has never happened. That's what academics do I guess. You also only look at what you want to; no looking at unemployment, the FTSE, wage growth vs the EU etc..

The invite remains open for you to highlight a country. If Brexit is such a disaster, then patterns should be emerging pretty sharpish. They aren't because Europe as a whole is in an almighty mess that also makes any proper analysis, let alone theoretical ones largely futile.

Of course I don't want to fight you, I don't fight anyone, and I've already said I would likely vote Labour at the next election. Now if you had a dollar for every time you said something false about me..that would be a positive looking graph!

The main Euro countries that you wish to compare us against have their own issues (Germany with energy), but the one thing they all have in common that we don't share is they didn't vote for it themselves.

[JamesWales]

The main Euro countries that you wish to compare us against have their own issues (Germany with energy), but the one thing they all have in common that we don't share is they didn't vote for it themselves.

Actually, Germans do elect their governments who determine energy policies, and they have known for a long time they were too reliant on Russia.
Here's an article from 2014 which makes for quite interesting reading through 2022 eyes
https://www.reuters.com/article/pola...0M71JA20140310

[az city]

So you cannot cite a single comparable European country to point to who we should be emulating?

You know you can't because they don't exist.

This is a joke, correct? You ignored completely a detailed explanation of why cross-sectional comparisons are erroneous. Despite this you have been asking us to name a comparable country and here you're saying one doesn't exist.

You'd do well as a Tufton ERG Tory.

[HiVis]

Actually, Germans do elect their governments who determine energy policies, and they have known for a long time they were too reliant on Russia.
Here's an article from 2014 which makes for quite interesting reading through 2022 eyes
https://www.reuters.com/article/pola...0M71JA20140310

Pretty much all the main parties in Germany (CSU/CDU, SPD) have the same energy policies.

[A Quiet Monkfish]

So.. did anyone watch the video?

What video ?

[bigjoe]

I'd also question some of this. UK exports are at a record high, and you can actually see a rise that begins after 2016
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/exports
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/u...at-record-high

There are discrepancies between the figures shown in these two sources.
The government one (for 2018) says the deficit was down compared to the 2017 figure.
You'd need the import figures to complete the picture.
Would there be a way of normalising the figures against the value of the post-Brexit pound?
I guess the government has been bending over backwards to help big companies to get big orders out. A lot of smaller businesses have been affected by this. Do they take into consideration that some distribution centres have been moved to the EU?

[Doucas]

What video ?

Glad to see you've woken up from your nap.

The video I posted in the first post of this thread.

https://youtu.be/wO2lWmgEK1Y

[Doucas]

How the UK became one of the poorest countries in the world.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/mark...pe/ar-AA13luEL

[az city]

How the UK became one of the poorest countries in the world.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/mark...pe/ar-AA13luEL

It’s Western Europe not the World. And that sensationalist title actually detracts from a thoughtful piece.

The UK economic path looks bleak going forward. Take out the UK’s financial prowess and it looks structurally weak.

[Doucas]

It’s Western Europe not the World. And that sensationalist title actually detracts from a thoughtful piece.

The UK economic path looks bleak going forward. Take out the UK’s financial prowess and it looks structurally weak.

It wasn't on purpose. Can't edit it now.