Reply With QuoteI hope Bulut stays, he's the best we've had in a decade. If he goes I think relegation would be odds-on.
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Erol Bulut has his faults, but he's the best bet Cardiff City have had in years and needs help
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So, here we are again, then. January, Cardiff City's yearly chaos month. The month of sackings — see Neil Harris and Mark Hudson — and SOS signings after dismal first halves of the season.
But this season appeared to be different. Everything was tracking in the right direction. There was a renewed verve and positivity growing throughout the season until we hit November. The squad looked better — OK not lightyears ahead of the last two seasons, but what can you expect with a squad built on frees and loans? — the manager had connected with the fans and there was promise of winter shopping in the form of January arrivals.
That run of four wins on the bounce in September, plus the impressive double-header win over Huddersfield Town and Bristol City at the end of October really solidified City's position in the top half of the table and fans were buzzing about the City again.
Now, it wouldn't be the Championship without some periods of turbulence. Some rotten results or performances thrown in along the way is par for the course. What is concerning, however, is the downward trajectory of this team's performance since the end of October.
The attacking threat is virtually non-existent — half of the the last 10 goals which have been scored have come from corners — and the defence, which was so robust at the start of the season, is now shipping goals at an alarming rate. This squad does need help, of that there is no question.
No one for one second is saying manager Erol Bulut is blameless in City's poor run over the last two months. Cardiff had a far clearer identity of their attacking play in the first portion of the season and that seems to have been lost somewhere along the way. The build-up play and passing through the lines has slowed to an easily defendable pace, meaning Cardiff trouble goalkeepers all too rarely.
At the start of the year, or certainly up until October, there was genuine optimism about the way Cardiff were playing and beating teams. Yes, they scored from set pieces then, too, but there was nowhere near the reliance they have on set pieces at the moment. Games like Huddersfield away and Bristol City at home showed the variety with which Cardiff could attack.
That three-game streak when they beat Swansea City, Coventry City and Sunderland showed three very different and very encouraging sides to Bulut's Bluebirds. Against the Swans, they showed real fight and an ability to stand up to the occasion. Against Coventry they showed some real swagger and took the game to a well-drilled Championship outfit. Then, away to Sunderland, fought tooth and nail until the dying minutes, when Mark McGuinness popped up and scored the winner.
Those sort of performances ground to a halt worryingly quickly. The play is too ponderous now. The ball is passed along the defence far too regularly and there is so little penetration in midfield, meaning the forwards — who have also underperformed as a whole this season — have no quality service to feed off.
The absence of Aaron Ramsey has been big, of course, but barring the Swansea win, all of the performances mentioned above occurred without Ramsey in the team. And, let's be truthful, was any Cardiff fan basing this season off of having Aaron Ramsey fit for 46 games? I'm sure Bulut wasn't. Sign up to our daily Cardiff City newsletter here.
Individual players are not hitting their standards, either. Josh Bowler looked dangerous earlier in the campaign, now that spark has dimmed slightly. He's a very capable player at this level and Cardiff need his output to ramp back up quickly. Manolis Siopis is the same; a player many thought would have a massive say on proceedings this year but on Saturday was benched after a string of sub-par displays.
Yakou Meite has not had the impact many hoped he would after his goal record at Reading, particularly pre-injury. While Jamilu Collins has been nowhere near as bad as some have made out, he's been patchy, too, with no competition for his place.
Everything seemed to slot in naturally earlier in the season, now Cardiff seem to be searching and Bulut doesn't know what his best team is. Is it Meite or Kion Etete up front? Neither have grabbed their chance, really. Bowler or Ollie Tanner? Like Bowler, Tanner's impact has declined in recent months. Rubin Colwill or Karlan Grant in as a second striker? Or does Ryan Wintle play as an advanced No.8 and press high? Is that too defensive? Well, yes, it is. All these questions weren't needing to be asked earlier in the season.
This Cardiff squad is still one built on free transfers and loans and was never equipped for a play-off fight. Credit to Bulut and the players for sticking to within touching distance of the top six. At the start of the season, very few people would have expected it.
But Bulut is ambitious and is not one to rest on his laurels. Cardiff have found themselves in an unlikely scrap for those top-six places and Bulut wants to strengthen and not let go of the opportunity. He must be commended for that.
That being said, calling out management and the board for the lack of transfer activity generally ends only one way at any club. It's not a good look and is not something City fans particularly want to hear. His post-match press conference on Saturday was likely borne of frustration over missing out on targets and things not moving as seamlessly as he would have hoped. That's understandable, but it sent shockwaves throughout the fan base.
The manager said he was close to making two signings before the Leeds United game, while we were told one would likely be through the door before Plymouth last Saturday. At the time of writing, Cardiff's only business of note has been to send their most prolific striker — Ike Ugbo — back to his parent club and the same for back-up defender Jonathan Panzo.
Cardiff generally deal late in January, as do all clubs in this mid-season window. But just why haven't they signed anyone yet? Well, there are a couple of factors.
Financial Fair Play is a consideration. Cardiff need to keep within the FFP limit to avoid any points penalties which might come their way if they don't. Before the window the club were confident they had enough headroom and would stay within it comfortably. But it is unknown whether that was predicated on getting players out of the club first. The likes of Romaine Sawyers and, before the last week, Andy Rinomhota were deemed surplus to requirement and it would have benefitted all parties if they were to have found a new home early in the month.
Cardiff are also shopping in a competitive market. Deals they have been close to have been scuppered by other clubs swooping in last minute, which have either delayed deals or has seen the player head elsewhere. Umut Nayir to Pendikspor is one example of that. We rarely hear from Vincent Tan but the one time he did he was at pains to say they wouldn't throw money at signings in this window, but in the same breath he said he wanted to make the play-offs.
"We trust Erol but we still have to look at budgets, we're not simply going to buy players. Hopefully in January we can bring in some... good players, we have to study you know?" Tan said. "I think we have a good manager in Erol and I believe we have a very good chance to be in the play-offs hopefully, God willing."
There are now 10 days to go until the window closes. The Bluebirds have some respite given they don't have a game this week, meaning their sole focus is on transfers. There will be incomings, there still could be as many as five but it will take a real collective effort in the final throes of the window.
I hope Bulut stays, he's the best we've had in a decade. If he goes I think relegation would be odds-on.
You think he's better than Warnock?Originally Posted by alan_corneli
Odds on
You’re on acid
He's done a good job, last year we would have gone down if it wasn't for other clubs' points deductions and we lost the three best players, Kaba, Philogene, and Kipre, and we were under a transfer embargo!
I'd love to able to see today's Zoom/Team calls/meetings between Tan, Dalman and Bulut!
This is always a humourous take on things. Had Reading not had a deduction I am completely convinced we would have picked up other results. Perhaps not at Burnley, but anyone at the Huddersfield game knew that we were safe and we cruised through that game with one of the worst performances of the season because of it.
Subjective but maybe you are right, but we stayed up by the skin of our teeth thanks mainly to Kaba and Lamouchi.
if we are not careful we will go the other way and lose a good Manager and gain another shit one like Hudson or Morrison.
It will be Darren Purse, and we'll end up being relegated
Definitely don't want him he'll be another mark Hudson.
We need to stick with Bullet
Whatever odds the bookies are giving, I'll better
We aren't going down
I admire your confidence, but, and it is a big but, if Bulut goes (and I for one sincerely hope he doesn't), and Purse took over, do you honestly think we would stay up?Whatever odds the bookies are giving, I'll better
We aren't going down
he can stay only if we change our name to Bulut FC too
absolutely delusion on this forum
I hope he stays but be it Bulut or someone else we need new players, I’m sure we will add to the squad just hope it’s the quality we need and now panic buys.
QPR in 22nd have 24 points. That's lower than average after 28 games. Even with the usual rally of sides in trouble, it would be a major surprise if a side went down with 48 points. I reckon 10 points would do, from 18 games. Even with us playing as shit as we have been, I reckon we can win 3 games from the last 18, including the usual surprise win against someone when we didn't expect it.
For us to go down we'd probably need to lose 15 of our last 18 games. Now, while I'm not sure about Bulut and, my reservation about sacking him is more down to who the club would bring in, I don't see us being that poor between now and the end of the season.
Even less chance of relegation if we can get half a dozen games from O'Dowda and Ramsey. Three wins and four draws from 18 games would almost certainly guarantee safety, especially as all the clubs currently below us will have to accrue more points than us.
3 wins, 4 draws would mean 50 points. We won't need that many.
Yes, easily. We need about 3 wins and we'll be fine. We are THIRTEEN points clear. QPR, Wednesday and Rotherham are well under a point a game. Mark Hudson got a point a game with this lot, if we do that we'll get to 55. Easy.
I suppose if you look at it that way Eric, and you have obviously sat there and worked out how many points we need, then yes even with Purse in charge we could scrape to safely. The problem being is at the moment, without Ramsey, I can't see where one win is coming from let alone three. Or am I being unduly pessimistic?
Lets hope 'the usual surprise win against someone when we didn't expect it' is against the jacks at the Liberty.
I sincerely hope you are right!
It's that time of year when football fans become hyperbolic.....Odds on
You’re on acid
Not wishing to tempt fate, we haven't gone more than 3 league games this season without a win, so on that basis alone I can't see us getting caught up in a relegation struggle.I suppose if you look at it that way Eric, and you have obviously sat there and worked out how many points we need, then yes even with Purse in charge we could scrape to safely. The problem being is at the moment, without Ramsey, I can't see where one win is coming from let alone three. Or am I being unduly pessimistic?
Lets hope 'the usual surprise win against someone when we didn't expect it' is against the jacks at the Liberty.
It can be difficult, when the team are playing poorly, when it seems there are few positives, to see where the next win will come from. Statistically we could go down.I suppose if you look at it that way Eric, and you have obviously sat there and worked out how many points we need, then yes even with Purse in charge we could scrape to safely. The problem being is at the moment, without Ramsey, I can't see where one win is coming from let alone three. Or am I being unduly pessimistic?
Lets hope 'the usual surprise win against someone when we didn't expect it' is against the jacks at the Liberty.
Shortest odds I've seen on oddschecker for us to be relegated is 33/1. If we lose our next 6, we might start to worry.
Funny how the talk of playoffs has vanished after one result!
Exactly with Rambo and O'Dowda back still top half unless Bulut walks and we get Morison or some other YTS Manager.
Even Hudson got 19 points in 18 games. We're lucky we had the start we did, but very unlikely we'd go down from here even if Dalman decided to get the painter back and made him the boss. 3 more wins in 18 games would have us safe most of the last 5 years and to not get that would be an all-time collapse.
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