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Two gains for Labour overnight. Kingswood with a majority (around 2;500) of less than the number of Reform party voted. Wellingborough was, according to Sir John Curtice, a terrible result for the Tories with their vote falling by 38 per cent and Reform getting 13 per cent of the vote- Labour’smajority was more than 6,000.
First Ukip now Reform. I thought you said Tories fall into line? :DOriginally Posted by the other bob wilson
Reform may cost the Tories this coming election. Richard Tice saying he wants to destroy the party. For the rėght, Things have to get worse before they get better as the current Conservatives have lost their way.
The splitting of the right wing vote into tory and reform is great news for Labour
even without that it is a disaster for the Tories, these were 18k and 11k majorities.
they are finished
I agree, Reform are going to inflict wounds at the GE but they'll probably lose without Reform. It's still a very large swing required due to the size of Johnson's win in 2019?
Is it just me or is sending out the ridiculous Rees-mogg as one of the first to defend the result, or actually anywhere near a journalist at any point in time ahead of the election, a bad move?
I think Rees mogg was there because his seat is the neighbouring one to Kingswood?
But either way he's a complete and utter cock
The above plus the SNP will over in Scotland , Labour majority over about 100 I reckon
It's 1997 all over again - a new dawn has broken said Tony Blair, 13 years later, an illegal war, 75% of school rebuilding budget spent without a brick being laid, PFI debt through the roof, 6 billion NHS project failed etc etc and then Gordon comes in to finish off the job by de regulating the banks - all the moneys gone etc, so in come Cameron / Clegg etc 13 years of the same plus a global pandemic and the Ukraine war, flapping from side to side, people get fed up - in comes the new Sir Keir 'saviour' - rinse and repeat. Angela 'scum' Raynor as deputy will be interesting to see how she gets on....
I'll be supporting Reform Party as the best of a bad bunch. We need to reform voting and implement proportional representation.
Sunak’s new podium catchphrase, “Stop the VOTES”!!!
The longer the clown holds out on calling an election, the more seats they will loose.
Take a closer look at the actual numbers of votes cast in these by-elections and compare these with votes cast in the last General Election in 2019. You will rarely, if ever, see these data compared, as the media tend to get obsessed with % swings. If you do "drill down" (which seems to be the latest trendy expression) into the data the results may surprise you. It's something that I like to take a look at.
Wellingborough: 2019 General Election. Turnout (in terms of people eligible to vote) was 51,931 (i.e. 64.3% of 80,765).
Of these 13,737 voted Labour and 32,277 voted Tory.
In yesterday's by-election only 30,145 turned out to vote, that's 21,786 less than in 2019.
Of these 13,844 voted Labour and 7,408 voted Tory.
Note: the Labour vote was more or less the same but the Tory vote collapsed. Does that indicate a massive swing to Labour or that a huge number of Tory voters decided to stay home?
Kingswood: 2019 General Election. Turnout (in terms of people eligible to vote) was 49,314 (i.e. 71.5% of 68,972).
Of these 16,492 voted Labour and 27,712 voted Tory.
In yesterday's by-election only 24,905 turned out to vote, that's 24,409 less than in 2019.
Of these 11,176 voted Labour and 8,675 voted Tory.
Note: the Labour vote yesterday was actually less than it was in the 2019 General election but again the Tory vote collapsed. Does that indicate a massive swing to Labour or once again that a huge number of Tory voters decided to stay home?
I don't believe that the result was only due to Tory voters staying at home (the Tory Line) or that this is overwhelming evidence of public confidence in Labour.
I expect the polls to narrow as we get closer to an election, but for Starmer's Labour to win a comfortable majority (maybe not the landslide that recent polls have suggested).
There is some evidence of non-Tory voters staying home too, and some evidence of Tory to Labour switchers. But the main conclusion is that the Tories have 'lost' a lot of their 2019 vote and this is more than a mid term protest.
The cost of living, the NHS and care system, and an 'out of touch' government are constants - but Gaza and Brexit will bite the Tories too (and maybe Labour in some places - giving a fillip to the Greens and nationalists).
Maybe not as fantastic a night for Labour as they are claiming (good though) but disastrous for the Tories.
I also think the Tories will lose the general election but the margin will not be as huge as Labour seem to assume is a given. Folk will vote for Labour candidates not because they have some magic formula that is going to put everything right but because they are not Tories!
I think it’s something like 50/50 whether people vote for a party or whether they vote against one (I’m definitely in the latter camp these days) and I reckon it’s always been like that.
Wether tory voters stay at home , switch to reform or Labour's vote doesn't increase the fact remains that another 2 tory seats have fallen
I will be voting Labour because I can't stand the conservatives, not because I think starmer is the second coming
In fact the conservatives should be grateful that Labour picked starmer as leader as someone else , with half a personality and some charisma and steel would have wiped the Tories out for a generation
As it is a 20 seat majority would be a joyful event after the last 14 years of nonsense
Which is exactly what some people will do in voting tory because they don't like Labour!
I think they'll almost certainly lose to Labour but now Reform are draining away the far right vote from the Tories it could be a hammering.
Looks like the Lib Dems could be finished as there doesn't seem to be any way for them to come back from propping up Cameron's Tories in 2010.
Starmer and his foot soldiers just need to shut their mouths and the election is won. They only damage themselves when they open their gobs.
2019 was a mandate to get get Brexit done, but Boris decided to lock us in our homes instead.
They mentioned this on Radio4 last - and it seems by looking at the data the Tory vote never turned out or had protest with the Reform party - the Labour turn out hasnt changed.... it will be an interesting result at the GE to see if the Tory vote comes back.
Lots of guessing dressed up as analysis going on in this thread.
What is your guess, dressed up as analysis then ?
The figures:- For Wellingborough
13,737 voted Labour in 2019 General Election
13,844 voted Labour in 2024 by by-election
So an increase 104 votes
So Labour need to find out why there wasnt a massive increase in their vote and the conservatives need to find out where their vote went to - which seems pretty obvious to me.
I don't have access to the information required to make an educated guess, maybe the parties do via private polling in the runup or just an indication from party members canvassing on the ground in each seat.
Unless you know how the demography of these voters and how they have have moved between parties since the last election, you are just pissing in the wind. This is especially true this time around as the political landscape has changed so much since (Corbyn, Boris, Brexit etc.)
I tend to only really look at MRP polling as sample size is huge (compared to traditional polls) and that methodology has had very good results. The most recent one has the conservatives in major major trouble.
The data I presented is from the UK Parliament website. I made no attempt to analyse the data fully, just present it. I am always interested in the actual number of people that voted for a particular party, less so in "swings" which don't tell you much in these instances.
Fair enough but the following is pretty loaded imo:
'Does that indicate a massive swing to Labour or that a huge number of Tory voters decided to stay home?'
It doesn't indicate anything, it is a count of everybody who decided to vote. We don't know how they voted last time or how people who stayed at home would have voted if they decided to.
Plenty of people in the media will try to draw conclusions because it makes a better headline than 'this is how people who decided to vote, voted'.
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