By elections.

[Eric Cartman]

Take a closer look at the actual numbers of votes cast in these by-elections and compare these with votes cast in the last General Election in 2019. You will rarely, if ever, see these data compared, as the media tend to get obsessed with % swings. If you do "drill down" (which seems to be the latest trendy expression) into the data the results may surprise you. It's something that I like to take a look at.

Wellingborough: 2019 General Election. Turnout (in terms of people eligible to vote) was 51,931 (i.e. 64.3% of 80,765).
Of these 13,737 voted Labour and 32,277 voted Tory.

In yesterday's by-election only 30,145 turned out to vote, that's 21,786 less than in 2019.
Of these 13,844 voted Labour and 7,408 voted Tory.

Note: the Labour vote was more or less the same but the Tory vote collapsed. Does that indicate a massive swing to Labour or that a huge number of Tory voters decided to stay home?



Kingswood: 2019 General Election. Turnout (in terms of people eligible to vote) was 49,314 (i.e. 71.5% of 68,972).
Of these 16,492 voted Labour and 27,712 voted Tory.

In yesterday's by-election only 24,905 turned out to vote, that's 24,409 less than in 2019.
Of these 11,176 voted Labour and 8,675 voted Tory.

Note: the Labour vote yesterday was actually less than it was in the 2019 General election but again the Tory vote collapsed. Does that indicate a massive swing to Labour or once again that a huge number of Tory voters decided to stay home?

Also maybe I have read more than you about the numerous by-elections over the last few years but the coverage has continually contained plenty about 'stay at home'/'low turnout' so what you are saying is nothing new and selling it as some uncovered gem in the context of a media blackout/conspiracy is pretty bizarre.

Headlines will always be about the swing, it's a good headline.

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

Also maybe I have read more than you about the numerous by-elections over the last few years but the coverage has continually contained plenty about 'stay at home'/'low turnout' so what you are saying is nothing new and selling it as some uncovered gem in the context of a media blackout/conspiracy is pretty bizarre.

Headlines will always be about the swing, it's a good headline.

Wether the Tories lose a by election from their own voters staying at home or people turning to Labour or turning to reform or a combination of these , they lost

In the same way labour when in power would lose by elections

[the other bob wilson]

What is your guess, dressed up as analysis then ?

The figures:- For Wellingborough
13,737 voted Labour in 2019 General Election
13,844 voted Labour in 2024 by by-election
So an increase 104 votes

So Labour need to find out why there wasnt a massive increase in their vote and the conservatives need to find out where their vote went to - which seems pretty obvious to me.

Why can’t I get the term “desperate times, desperate measures” out of my mind while reading the above?

You’d be better off trying to find out why the Toryvote in recent by elections has collapsed so much more under Sunak compared to Major pre 1997.

https://kellnerpolitics.com/2024/02/...eally-tell-us/

[NinianOpinion1927]

I don't have access to the information required to make an educated guess, maybe the parties do via private polling in the runup or just an indication from party members canvassing on the ground in each seat.

Unless you know how the demography of these voters and how they have have moved between parties since the last election, you are just pissing in the wind. This is especially true this time around as the political landscape has changed so much since (Corbyn, Boris, Brexit etc.)

I tend to only really look at MRP polling as sample size is huge (compared to traditional polls) and that methodology has had very good results. The most recent one has the conservatives in major major trouble.

You can't make an educated guess from the information already available? Or maybe you don't like the conclusion so you'd rather act daft

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

You can't make an educated guess from the information already available? Or maybe you don't like the conclusion so you'd rather act daft

The conclusion is clear

2 by elections this week

2 defeats for the conservatives

Get back in the box

[Eric Cartman]

You can't make an educated guess from the information already available? Or maybe you don't like the conclusion so you'd rather act daft

I don't think I can explain why it's a bad idea any more clearly.

I think it's actually the other way around, you are looking for data to support something because you wish it to be true. This is always a bad idea.

The most informed estimate of where each party is at currently is either the most recent MRP or the poll of polls. Neither make for pretty reading for the Conservatives.

Always worth remembering also that this election is likely to be a bit different to previous in that the Tories image is so worn and toxic that nobody other than reform/DUP(?) will work with them. Labour doesn't need a majority to govern, they likely don't even need to be the largest party to form a coalition.

[pipster]

I don't think I can explain why it's a bad idea any more clearly.

I think it's actually the other way around, you are looking for data to support something because you wish it to be true. This is always a bad idea.

The most informed estimate of where each party is at currently is either the most recent MRP or the poll of polls. Neither make for pretty reading for the Conservatives.

Always worth remembering also that this election is likely to be a bit different to previous in that the Tories image is so worn and toxic that nobody other than reform/DUP(?) will work with them. Labour doesn't need a majority to govern, they likely don't even need to be the largest party to form a coalition.

If you remember any of the echo chamber political discussions from the last election - Corbyn was acting as if he had already won. Some left wing socialists on facebook I know were talking to each other as if the win was evitable - turns out they were just speaking to people that they knew had the same political opinion - so never gauged the public mood.

Nearly everyone I know never wants to talk politics and certainly keep their opinion to themselves - myself included. The shouty ones - usually on the left seem to be the ones who can never understand that people may have a different opinion.

The UK general election is usually won from the middle ground by a few marginal seats. I can never recall a far left wing or right wing Govt ever being elected.

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

If you remember any of the echo chamber political discussions from the last election - Corbyn was acting as if he had already won. Some left wing socialists on facebook I know were talking to each other as if the win was evitable - turns out they were just speaking to people that they knew had the same political opinion - so never gauged the public mood.

Nearly everyone I know never wants to talk politics and certainly keep their opinion to themselves - myself included. The shouty ones - usually on the left seem to be the ones who can never understand that people may have a different opinion.

The UK general election is usually won from the middle ground by a few marginal seats. I can never recall a far left wing or right wing Govt ever being elected.

😂

You and your tory mates might not want to talk politics .....well your mates .....you are all over politics like a rash on here .....

And you might think that public opinion is different to your expert analysis but ......

The swing to Labour in Wellingborough was 28.5 percent which was the biggest such swing from tory to Labour since 1945

Ooops

[pipster]

😂

You and your tory mates might not want to talk politics .....well your mates .....you are all over politics like a rash on here .....

And you might think that public opinion is different to your expert analysis but ......

The swing to Labour in Wellingborough was 28.5 percent which was the biggest such swing from tory to Labour since 1945

Ooops

Has it been a boozy lunch lunch somewhere in the Vale with your posh mates today ?
I only ever talk politics on here - and it's usually to counter balance your skewed one eyed jack approach to politics and your love in with far left thinking.

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

Has it been a boozy lunch lunch somewhere in the Vale with your posh mates today ?
I only ever talk politics on here - and it's usually to counter balance your skewed one eyed jack approach to politics and your love in with far left thinking.

An absolute hammering for the Tories in the by elections and for you on here !

A swing of nearly 30 percent .......yet you think its just a left wing echo chamber

Back to school on Monday

[Eric Cartman]

If you remember any of the echo chamber political discussions from the last election - Corbyn was acting as if he had already won. Some left wing socialists on facebook I know were talking to each other as if the win was evitable - turns out they were just speaking to people that they knew had the same political opinion - so never gauged the public mood.

Nearly everyone I know never wants to talk politics and certainly keep their opinion to themselves - myself included. The shouty ones - usually on the left seem to be the ones who can never understand that people may have a different opinion.

The UK general election is usually won from the middle ground by a few marginal seats. I can never recall a far left wing or right wing Govt ever being elected.

I think this is confirmation bias and just a kind of nostalgic noise. I remember a bit of clinging to the idea that polling methodology was wrong and therefore wasn't predicting accurately but other than that a small loss was expected, and certainly predicted by the polls at the time. Obviously it turned out to be much bigger.

In the run up to the 2019 election labour were continually polling 6-10 points behind and there wasn't much confidence in a victory at all.

Ironically this time around Tory MPs have basically quiet quit assuming a massive loss, yet some on here think its still neck and neck.

You don't half write a lot about politics for someone who doesn't like talking about it.

[the other bob wilson]

If you remember any of the echo chamber political discussions from the last election - Corbyn was acting as if he had already won. Some left wing socialists on facebook I know were talking to each other as if the win was evitable - turns out they were just speaking to people that they knew had the same political opinion - so never gauged the public mood.

Nearly everyone I know never wants to talk politics and certainly keep their opinion to themselves - myself included. The shouty ones - usually on the left seem to be the ones who can never understand that people may have a different opinion.

The UK general election is usually won from the middle ground by a few marginal seats. I can never recall a far left wing or right wing Govt ever being elected.

As I said before, desperate times, desperate measures - do you really believe all of that?

[Gofer Blue]

Also maybe I have read more than you about the numerous by-elections over the last few years but the coverage has continually contained plenty about 'stay at home'/'low turnout' so what you are saying is nothing new and selling it as some uncovered gem in the context of a media blackout/conspiracy is pretty bizarre.

Headlines will always be about the swing, it's a good headline.

Exactly. Also an excellent deflection from the actual data. I have no axe to grind about the by-election results, just pointing out that very rarely do we see actual figures comparing the results of a recent election with those of the previous one. Maybe I am being thick but what relevance has "swing" when the number of votes cast for the Labour candidates remained roughly the same regardless of the reasons. To me, in these examples, a large swing implies that a large number of Tory voters switched to voting Labour - clearly that is not the case as the Tory votes are hugely down but not because of a mass defection to Labour. If I was a Tory voter in either of those two constituencies and I wanted to give Sunak/Tories the proverbial bloody nose then I would have surely gone to the polls and voted Labour, thereby boosting their majority to a much more impressive one!

[NinianOpinion1927]

Has it been a boozy lunch lunch somewhere in the Vale with your posh mates today ?
I only ever talk politics on here - and it's usually to counter balance your skewed one eyed jack approach to politics and your love in with far left thinking.

You're being generous calling it far left thinking, with Sludge it's more far left cheer leading without much thought at all.

[the other bob wilson]

You're being generous calling it far left thinking, with Sludge it's more far left cheer leading without much thought at all.

Readin Pipster’s (that’s what he’s calling himself these days isn’t it?) recent posts in this thread, he really shouldn’t have mentioned liquid lunches

[Rjk]

Take a closer look at the actual numbers of votes cast in these by-elections and compare these with votes cast in the last General Election in 2019. You will rarely, if ever, see these data compared, as the media tend to get obsessed with % swings. If you do "drill down" (which seems to be the latest trendy expression) into the data the results may surprise you. It's something that I like to take a look at.

Wellingborough: 2019 General Election. Turnout (in terms of people eligible to vote) was 51,931 (i.e. 64.3% of 80,765).
Of these 13,737 voted Labour and 32,277 voted Tory.

In yesterday's by-election only 30,145 turned out to vote, that's 21,786 less than in 2019.
Of these 13,844 voted Labour and 7,408 voted Tory.

Note: the Labour vote was more or less the same but the Tory vote collapsed. Does that indicate a massive swing to Labour or that a huge number of Tory voters decided to stay home?



Kingswood: 2019 General Election. Turnout (in terms of people eligible to vote) was 49,314 (i.e. 71.5% of 68,972).
Of these 16,492 voted Labour and 27,712 voted Tory.

In yesterday's by-election only 24,905 turned out to vote, that's 24,409 less than in 2019.
Of these 11,176 voted Labour and 8,675 voted Tory.

Note: the Labour vote yesterday was actually less than it was in the 2019 General election but again the Tory vote collapsed. Does that indicate a massive swing to Labour or once again that a huge number of Tory voters decided to stay home?

it's a massive swing to labour, the turnout is in line with what you would expect for a by election, the idea that all the stay at home voters would have voted Tory is just clutching at straws.
the Tories are done